Will the world be able to sustain economic growth indefinitely without running into resource constraints or despoiling the environment beyond repair? What is the relationship between steadily increasing incomes and environmental quality? This paper builds on the author's earlier work (1993), in which he argued that the relationship between economic growth and environmental quality – whether inverse or direct -- is not fixed along a country's development path. Indeed, he hypothesized, it may change as a country reaches a level of income at which people can demand and afford a more efficient infrastructure and a cleaner environment. This implied inverted-U relationship between environmental degradation and economic growth came to be known as the "Environmental Kuznets Curve," by analogy with the income-inequality relationship postulated by Kuznets (1965, 1966). The objective of this paper is to critically review, synthesize and interpret the literature on the relationship between economic growth and environment. This literature has followed two distinct but related strands of research: an empirical strand of ad hoc specifications and estimations of a reduced form equation, relating an environmental impact indicator to income per capita; and a theoretical strand of macroeconomic models of interaction between environmental degradation and economic growth, including optimal growth, endogenous growth and overlapping generations models. The author concludes that the macroeconomic models generally support the empirical findings of the Environmental Kuznets Curve literature. He suggests further empirical investigation related to the assumption of additive separability, as well as development of additional macroeconomic models that allow for a more realistic role for government.

Economic Growth and the Environment

Human activities over the last three centuries have significantly transformed the Earth's environment, primarily through the conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture. This study presents a simple approach to derive geographically explicit changes in global croplands from 1700 to 1992. By calibrating a remotely sensed land cover classification data set against cropland inventory data, we derived a global representation of permanent croplands in 1992, at 5 min spatial resolution [Ramankutty and Foley, 1998]. To reconstruct historical croplands, we first compile an extensive database of historical cropland inventory data, at the national and subnational level, from a variety of sources. Then we use our 1992 cropland data within a simple land cover change model, along with the historical inventory data, to reconstruct global 5 min resolution data on permanent cropland areas from 1992 back to 1700. The reconstructed changes in historical croplands are consistent with the history of human settlement and patterns of economic development. By overlaying our historical cropland data set over a newly derived potential vegetation data set, we analyze our results in terms of the extent to which different natural vegetation types have been converted for agriculture. We further examine the extent to which croplands have been abandoned in different parts of the world. Our data sets could be used within global climate models and global ecosystem models to understand the impacts of land cover change on climate and on the cycling of carbon and water. Such an analysis is a crucial aid to sharpen our thinking about a sustainable future.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/1999GB900046

Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands from 1700 to 1992

Human activities over the last three centuries have significantly transformed the Earth's environment, primarily through the conversion of natural ecosystems to agriculture. This study presents a simple approach to derive geographically explicit changes in global croplands from 1700 to 1992. By calibrating a remotely sensed land cover classification data set against cropland inventory data, we derived a global representation of permanent croplands in 1992, at 5 min spatial resolution (Ramankutty and Foley, 1998). To reconstruct historical croplands, we first compile an extensive database of historical cropland inventory data, at the national and subnational level, from a variety of sources. Then we use our 1992 cropland data within a simple land cover change model, along with the historical inventory data, to reconstruct global 5 min resolution data on permanent cropland areas from 1992 back to 1700. The reconstructed changes in historical croplands are consistent with the history of human settlement and patterns of economic development. By overlaying our historical cropland data set over a newly derived potential vegetation data set, we analyze our results in terms of the extent to which different natural vegetation types have been converted for agriculture. We further examine the extent to which croplands have been abandoned in different parts of the world. Our data sets could be used within global climate models and global ecosystem models to understand the impacts of land cover change on climate and on the cycling of carbon and water. Such an analysis is a crucial aid to sharpen our thinking about a sustainable future.

Estimating historical changes in global land cover: Croplands

STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts

The water footprint shows the extent of water use in relation to consumption of people. The water footprint of a country is defined as the volume of water needed for the production of the goods and services consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The internal water footprint is the volume of water used from domestic water resources; the external water footprint is the volume of water used in other countries to produce goods and services imported and consumed by the inhabitants of the country. The study calculates the water footprint for each nation of the world for the period 1997-2001. The USA appears to have an average water footprint of 2480 m 3 /cap/yr, while China has an average footprint of 700 m 3 /cap/yr. The global average water footprint is 1240 m 3 /cap/yr. The four major direct

/pdf/water-footprints-of-nations-water-use-by-people-as-a-4yeiaijnc3.pdf

Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern

http://metagraphies.org/Sir-Patrick-Geddes/ecology/Wackernagel_National.pdf

National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept

This "Ecological Footprints of Nations" initiative compares the ecological impact of 52 large nations inhabited by 80% of the world population. It also shows to what extent their consumption can be supported by their local ecological capacity. All the calculations are based on official UN statistics. This document provides solid evidence that the human enterprise already far exceeds the long-term biophysical carrying capacity of the planet. About one-third more resources and eco-services are used by humanity than what nature can regenerate. People are living on the biophysical heritage of their children. Most significantly eco-footprint analysis shows that it is the high-income countries that have appropriated most of the worlds ecological output. In conclusion sustainability begins with accepting the fact that people are dependent on nature and should acknowledge the problems posed by unsustainable lifestyles. Progress is only possible if there is a clear vision and measurable goals toward it. The contribution of this study was to show that the ecological bottom-line of sustainability can be measured. This document also presents systemic assessment to give direction for local national and global efforts to close the sustainability gap which became an effective strategic planning tool and a guidepost for a more secure equitable and sustainable future.

Larry Onisto

Papers

National natural capital accounting with the ecological footprint concept

Ecological footprints of nations: how much nature do they use? How much nature do they have?

FORUM: The business of sustainability