We investigate conditions sufficient for identification of average treatment effects using instrumental variables. First we show that the existence of valid instruments is not sufficient to identify any meaningful average treatment effect. We then establish that the combination of an instrument and a condition on the relation between the instrument and the participation status is sufficient for identification of a local average treatment effect for those who can be induced to change their participation status by changing the value of the instrument. Finally we derive the probability limit of the standard IV estimator under these conditions. It is seen to be a weighted average of local average treatment effects.

Evolution and Rationality Some Recent Game-Theoretic Results. Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects

Community-based (and driven) development (CBD) projects have become an important form of development assistance, with the World Bank's portfolio alone approximating 7 billion dollars. This paper reviews the conceptual and empirical foundations of CBD/CDD initiatives. Given the importance of the topic, there are, unfortunately, a dearth of well-designed evaluations of such projects. There is, however, enough quantitative and qualitative evidence, from studies that have either been published in peer-reviewed publications or have been conducted by independent researchers, to gain some instructive lessons. We find that projects that rely on community participation have not been particularly effective at targeting the poor. There is some evidence that CBD/CDD projects create effective community infrastructure, but not a single study establishes a causal relationship between any outcome and participatory elements of a CBD project. Most CBD projects are dominated by elites and, in general, the targeting of poor communities as well as project quality tend to be markedly worse in more unequal communities. However, a number of studies find a U shaped relationship between inequality and project outcomes. We also find that a distinction between potentially 'benevolent' forms of elite domination and more pernicious types of 'capture' is likely to be important for understanding project dynamics and outcomes. Several qualitative studies indicate that the sustainability of CBD initiatives depends crucially on an enabling institutional environment, which requires upward commitment. Equally, the literature indicates that community leaders need to be downwardly accountable to avoid a variant of 'supply driven demand driven development'. Qualitative evidence also suggests that external agents strongly influence project success. However, facilitators are often poorly trained and inexperienced, particularly when programs are rapidly scaled up. Overall, a naive application of complex contextual concepts like 'participation', 'social capital' and 'empowerment' - is endemic among project implementers and contributes to poor design and implementation. In sum, the evidence suggests that CBD/CDD is best done in a context-specific manner, with a long time-horizon, and with careful and well designed monitoring and evaluation systems.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID501663_code238096.pdf?abstractid=501663&mirid=1&type=2

Community Based (and Driven) Development: A Critical Review

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(11)60555-2.pdf

Inequality in early childhood: risk and protective factors for early child development

Matching estimators are widely used in empirical economics for the evaluation of programs or treatments. Researchers using matching methods often apply the bootstrap to calculate the standard errors. However, no formal justification has been provided for the use of the bootstrap in this setting. In this article, we show that the standard bootstrap is, in general, not valid for matching estimators, even in the simple case with a single continuous covariate where the estimator is root-N consistent and asymptotically normally distributed with zero asymptotic bias. Valid inferential methods in this setting are the analytic asymptotic variance estimator of Abadie and Imbens (2006a) as well as certain modifications of the standard bootstrap, like the subsampling methods in Politis and Romano (1994).

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On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators

/pdf/how-to-conduct-surveys-a-step-by-step-guide-4za2dab8jy.pdf

How to Conduct Surveys: A Step-by-Step Guide

Development programs and policies are typically designed to change outcomes such as raising incomes, improving learning, or reducing illness. Whether or not these changes are actually achieved is a crucial public policy question, but one that is not often examined. Impact evaluations are part of a broader agenda of evidence-based policy making. This growing global trend is marked by a shift in focus from inputs to outcomes and results, and is reshaping public policy.The first part of the book presents an overview of impact evaluation. Chapter 1 discusses why impact evaluation is important and how it fits within the context of ethical, evidence-based policy making. The authors contrast impact evaluation with monitoring, introduce the defining features of impact evaluation, and discuss complementary approaches, including cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis. The authors introduce a core focus of the book: namely, how a program’s available resources, eligibility criteria for selecting beneficiaries, and timing for mplementation serve to structure options in the selection of impact evaluation methods. Finally, the authors introduce different modalities of impact evaluation, such as prospective and retrospective evaluation, and efficacy versus effectiveness trials and conclude with a discussion on when to use impact evaluations. Chapter 2 discusses how to formulate evaluation questions and hypotheses that are useful for policy. These questions and hypotheses determine the focus of the evaluation. The authors also introduce the fundamental concept of a theory of change and the related use of results chains and performance indicators. Chapter 2 provides the first introduction to the fictional case study, the Health Insurance Subsidy Program (HISP), that is used throughout the book and in the accompanying material found on the Impact Evaluation in Practice website (www.worldbank .org/ieinpractice).

Impact Evaluation in Practice

Several developing economies have recently introduced conditional cash transfer programs, which provide money to poor families contingent on certain behavior, usually investments in human capital, such as sending children to school or bringing them to health centers. The approach is both an alternative to more traditional social assistance programs and a demand-side complement to the supply of health and education services. Unlike most development initiatives, conditional cash transfer programs have been subject to rigorous evaluations of their effectiveness using experimental or quasi-experimental methods. Evaluation results for programs launched in Colombia, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Turkey reveal successes in addressing many of the failures in delivering social assistance, such as weak poverty targeting, disincentive effects, and limited welfare impacts. There is clear evidence of success from the first generation of programs in Colombia, Mexico, and Nicaragua in increasing enrollment rates, improving preventive health care, and raising household consumption. Many questions remain unanswered, however, including the potential of conditional cash transfer programs to function well under different conditions, to address a broader range of challenges among poor and vulnerable populations, and to prevent the intergenerational transmission of poverty.

/pdf/evaluating-the-impact-of-conditional-cash-transfer-programs-1wsrza7i94.pdf

Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs

The second edition of the Impact Evaluation in Practice handbook is a comprehensive and accessible introduction to impact evaluation for policy makers and development practitioners. First published in 2011, it has been used widely across the development and academic communities. The book incorporates real-world examples to present practical guidelines for designing and implementing impact evaluations. Readers will gain an understanding of impact evaluations and the best ways to use them to design evidence-based policies and programs. The updated version covers the newest techniques for evaluating programs and includes state-of-the-art implementation advice, as well as an expanded set of examples and case studies that draw on recent development challenges. It also includes new material on research ethics and partnerships to conduct impact evaluation. The handbook is divided into four sections: Part One discusses what to evaluate and why; Part Two presents the main impact evaluation methods; Part Three addresses how to manage impact evaluations; Part Four reviews impact evaluation sampling and data collection. Case studies illustrate different applications of impact evaluations. The book links to complementary instructional material available online, including an applied case as well as questions and answers. The updated second edition will be a valuable resource for the international development community, universities, and policy makers looking to build better evidence around what works in development.

Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition

Conditional cash transfers are a departure from more traditional approaches to social assistance, that represents an innovative, and increasingly popular channel for the delivery of social services. Conditional cash transfers provide money to poor families, contingent upon certain behavior, usually investments in human capital, such as sending children to school, or bringing them to health centers on a regular basis. They seek both to address traditional short-term income support objectives, as well as to promote the longer-term accumulation of human capital, by serving as a demand-side complement to the supply of health, and education services. Evaluation results from a first generation of programs reveal that this innovative design has been quite successful in addressing many of the criticisms of social assistance, such as poor poverty targeting, disincentive effects, and limited welfare impacts. There is clear evidence of success from programs in Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Nicaragua in increasing enrollment rates, improving preventive health care and raising household consumption. Despite this promising evidence, many questions remain unanswered about conditional cash transfer programs, including the replicability of their success under different conditions, their role within a broader social protection system, and their long-term effectiveness in preventing the inter- generational transmission of poverty. One of the main challenges facing policymakers today is how to build off of the established success of conditional cash transfer programs, to tackle the more difficult issues of improving the quality of health, and education services, and providing a more holistic approach to both social protection, and chronic poverty.

A New Approach to Social Assistance: Latin America’s Experience with Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are an innovative and increasingly popular approach to social assistance. They provide money to poor families contingent upon certain behavior, usually investments in human capital such as keeping children in school or taking them to health centers on a regular basis. These programs are perhaps the clearest policy manifestation of a new line of thinking on the long-term role of social assistance programs. Not only are they instruments for short-term poverty alleviation, but they also encompass longer-term economic growth and human capital development objectives. They have been adopted internationally and in several countries they have been scaled up to become integral components of poverty alleviation strategies.

/pdf/a-new-approach-to-social-assistance-latin-america-s-74tve5fbt1.pdf

Laura B. Rawlings

Papers

Impact Evaluation in Practice

Evaluating the impact of conditional cash transfer programs

Impact Evaluation in Practice, Second Edition

A New Approach to Social Assistance: Latin America’s Experience with Conditional Cash Transfer Programs

A new approach to social assistance : Latin America's experience with conditional cash transfer programs