Making strategy: the journey of strategic management

Community participation and geographic information systems

Water Resources Management (WRM) problems are now recognised for their complexity. Approaches for dealing with these problems must integrate a variety of interests, perspectives, values and knowledge into their potential solutions. They must also confront and manage problem uncertainties. The involvement of stakeholders in these approaches is critical. Collaborative Modelling (CM) offers a particularly promising set of approaches to involve stakeholders in computer-based modelling activities in WRM. This thesis analyses two of these approaches from the Netherlands: the development of the AZURE iMOD groundwater model using a Consortium Modelling approach, and the Model-Supported Collaborative Planning approach adopted during the Dutch Delta Programme Rivers (DPR). It identifies which characteristics, structures, and processes of collaboration were important in achieving approach objectives, in addition to establishing those the stakeholders involved most valued and appreciated. Consortium Modelling is found to apply most in problem contexts where the scientific knowledge base is uncertain. The approach is premised upon cooperative stakeholder involvement at a high co-decision making level of participation. It is an intensive process of model co-construction, where specialists with sufficient technical knowledge collaborate in the development of a sophisticated groundwater model. In contrast, Model-Supported Collaborative Planning is more suited to problem contexts where different values and opinions proliferate and the scientific knowledge base is largely certain or uncontested. This approach directly supports policy-making, and relies upon highly structured involvement for large numbers of stakeholders at different levels of participation. It involves the development and use of a Blokkendoos model (or ‘Planning Kit’) to formulate an integrated flood protection strategy. The thesis demonstrates which stakeholders to involve and when to involve them in these approaches depends upon the problem context and the specific purposes of the CM exercise. Higher levels of participation are generally preferred over lower levels for both approaches, and it is broadly beneficial if stakeholders are involved during the earliest agenda setting phases. Neutral expert advice and process management can also be of benefit, provided these experts enjoy the trust of the stakeholders involved. It is also essential to confront any uncertainties with stakeholders, and provide sufficient time for both collaborative and model-construction processes to occur. This, notwithstanding, care must be taken in translating either of these approaches to cultural contexts significantly different to that existing in the Netherlands. The thesis confirms and reiterates many CM recommendations presented in previous research, however, several of these are found to also be dependent upon problem contexts and the specific purposes of the exercise.

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Collaborative Modelling in Water Resources Management: Two approaches from the Netherlands

Losses from environmental flood hazards have escalated in the recent decades, prompting a reorientation of emergency management systems away from simple post-event response. The degree to which populations are vulnerable to flood hazards is not solely dependent upon proximity to the source of the threat or the physical nature of the hazard—social factors also play a significant role in determining vulnerability. This paper presents a participatory disaster risk method for assessing vulnerability in spatial terms using both physical and social indicators. It reveals that the most physically vulnerable places do not always spatially intersect with the most vulnerable populations. This is an important finding because it reflects the likely ‘social costs’ of hazards. While economic losses might be large in areas of high physical risk to floods, the resident population also may have greater safety nets (insurance, additional financial resources) to absorb and recover from the loss quickly. Conversely, it would take only a moderate hazard event to disrupt the well-being of the majority residents (who are more socially of vulnerable, but perhaps do not reside in the highest areas of physical risks to floods) and retard their longer-term recovery from disasters. This paper advances theoretical and conceptual understanding of the spatial dimensions of vulnerability. It further highlights the merger of conceptualizations of human-environment relationships with geographical techniques in understanding contemporary public policy issues.

The vulnerability of urban communities to flood hazards in Tanzania: A case of Dar es Salaam city

There is a long tradition of model-based decision support in water management. The consideration of deep uncertainty, however, changes the requirements imposed on models.. In the face of deep uncertainty, models are used to explore many uncertainties and the decision space across multiple outcomes of interest. This requires a model that runs fast, making it necessary to do concessions in the resolution including spatial, temporal and process information. For delta management under uncertainty, a model should capture all relevant changes, processes, actions, and feedbacks over time and produce relevant outcomes for stakeholders; thus it requires an integrated and dynamic model. Earlier, we developed a fast integrated model for the Rhine delta in the Netherlands, where there is a long tradition on model development and where both the physical and social system are quite static. However, in data scarce areas, and especially in dynamic deltas such as Bangladesh, building a fast, integrated and dynamic model is challenging.In this contribution, we discuss the model requirements for decision support under deep uncertainty in data scarce dynamic deltas. We illustrate this using a case study of the Ganges Brahmaputra delta in Bangladesh, where we develop a fast integrated metamodel. In this delta, uncertainties arise not only from external developments such as climate change, sea level rise, and upstream developments, but also from within the system. For example, the delta experiences large morphological changes that are difficult to explore even with detailed complex models. In addition, the social system is very dynamic; people migrate or adapt in response to morphological changes or extreme events. This coevolution needs to be captured in the model. We give examples of the complexity and dynamics of the delta and discuss possibilities to capture this in a model.

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Model requirements for decision support under uncertainty in data scarce dynamic deltas

Safe access to water is essential for sustainable development. Building resilience towards disaster risks and ensuring water availability by balancing the many competing uses and users of water, while maintaining healthy and diverse ecosystems, are critical elements to ultimately deliver water security. Following the Sustainable Development Agenda 2030, in this Ph.D. thesis Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is conceived as the process that leads towards water security, and as a result, sustainable development. Lessons learnt from the past show, however, that the implementation of IWRM encounters major difficulties if most stakeholders still follow traditional planning mechanisms. Lack of knowledge about the water resources system, disagreements between water users and insufficient focus on operationalisation are frequent causes of limited acceptance and practical implementation of IWRM plans. Informed decision-making and engaging stakeholders in the planning and decision-making processes are therefore important elements that help to create the enabling conditions for sustainable water resources planning and management.
In this Ph.D. thesis, participatory and collaborative modelling is presented as a means towards sustainable development, as it supports informed decision-making and inclusive development. How to develop and use computer-based simulation models is analysed following a participatory or collaborative modelling approach for managing water resources, so their use can be enhanced, and the ownership of the development strengthened. The research approach comprises four main elements: (i) identifying the key components of participatory and collaborative modelling; (ii) making an inventory of existing approaches, methods and tools; and developing a conceptual framework for their design and evaluation; (iii) designing and applying four participatory and collaborative modelling approaches that make use of computer-based simulation models in specific cases; and (iv) testing and evaluating the technical and social contributions of the designed approaches.

Participatory and Collaborative Modelling; Key to Sustainable and Inclusive Development: Strengthening Stakeholder Ownership for Informed and Participatory Water Resources Management

Laura Basco-Carrera

Papers

Participatory and Collaborative Modelling; Key to Sustainable and Inclusive Development: Strengthening Stakeholder Ownership for Informed and Participatory Water Resources Management