We study how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. We predict that a wave of investor sentiment has larger effects on securities whose valuations are highly subjective and difficult to arbitrage. Consistent with this prediction, we find that when beginning-of-period proxies for sentiment are low, subsequent returns are relatively high for small stocks, young stocks, high volatility stocks, unprofitable stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, extreme growth stocks, and distressed stocks. When sentiment is high, on the other hand, these categories of stock earn relatively low subsequent returns.

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Investor sentiment and the cross-section of stock returns

The wide cross-country disparity in rates of economic growth is the most puzzling feature of the development process. This paper describes a class of models in which this type of heterogeneity in growth experiences can arise as a result of cross-country differences in government policy. These differences in policy regimes can also create incentives for labor migration from slow growing to fast growing countries. In the class of models that we study growth is endogenous but the technology exhibits constant returns to scale and there is a steady state path that accords with Kaldor's stylized facts of economic development. The key to making growth endogenous in the absence of increasing returns is the presence of a "core" of capital goods that can be produced without the direct or indirect contribution of factors that cannot be accumulated, such as land.

Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth

The wide cross-country disparity in rates of economic growth is the most puzzling feature of the development process. This paper describes a class of models in which this heterogeneity in growth experiences can be the result of cross-country differences in government policy. These differences can also create incentives for labor migration from slow-growing to fast-growing countries. In the models considered, growth is endogeneous despite the absence of increasing returns because there is a "core" of capital goods that can be produced without the direct or indirect contribution of factors that cannot be accumulated, such as land.

/pdf/long-run-policy-analysis-and-long-run-growth-314hercx08.pdf

Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by studying how the cross-section of subsequent stock returns varies with proxies for beginning-of-period investor sentiment. When sentiment is low, subsequent returns are relatively high on smaller stocks, high volatility stocks, unprofitable stocks, non-dividend-paying stocks, extreme-growth stocks, and distressed stocks, consistent with an initial underpricing of these stocks. When sentiment is high, on the other hand, these patterns attenuate or fully reverse. The results are consistent with predictions and appear unlikely to reflect an alternative explanation based on compensation for systematic risk.

Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

This article examines the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets. Firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle. We show the sources of small business finance, and how capital structure varies with firm size and age. The interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment. We also analyze a number of research and policy issues, review the literature, and suggest topics for future research.

/pdf/the-economics-of-small-business-finance-the-roles-of-private-3udpq27n5a.pdf

The economics of small business finance: The roles of private equity and debt markets in the financial growth cycle

How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues

A comparative analysis of IPO proceeds under alternative regulatory environments

On the differentiability of the value function in dynamic models of economics

We present evidence that firms attempting IPOs learn from the experience of their contemporaries. These information spillovers affect revisions in offer terms and the decision whether to carry through with an offering. The evidence also supports the argument that IPOs are implicitly bundled as a means of promoting more equitable sharing of information production costs. One apparent consequence of this behavior is that while initial returns and IPO volume are positively correlated in the aggregate, the correlation is negative among contemporaneous offerings subject to a common valuation factor. These findings are consistent with the Benveniste, Busaba, and Wilhelm (2001) argument that the dynamics of volume and initial returns in primary equity markets reflect, at least in part, an institutional response to information externalities.

Lawrence M. Benveniste

Papers

How investment bankers determine the offer price and allocation of new issues

A comparative analysis of IPO proceeds under alternative regulatory environments

On the differentiability of the value function in dynamic models of economics

Evidence Of Information Spillovers In The Production Of Investment Banking Services

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