Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

to be done in this area. Face recognition is a problem that scarcely clamoured for attention before the computer age but, having surfaced, has involved a wide range of techniques and has attracted the attention of some fine minds (David Mumford was a Fields Medallist in 1974). This singular application of mathematical modelling to a messy applied problem of obvious utility and importance but with no unique solution is a pretty one to share with students: perhaps, returning to the source of our opening quotation, we may invert Duncan's earlier observation, 'There is an art to find the mind's construction in the face!'.

Linear and nonlinear waves, by G. B. Whitham. Pp.636. £50. 1999. ISBN 0 471 35942 4 (Wiley).

Initial-value ordinary differential equation solution via variable order Adams method (SIVA/DIVA) package is collection of subroutines for solution of nonstiff ordinary differential equations. There are versions for single-precision and double-precision arithmetic. Requires fewer evaluations of derivatives than other variable-order Adams predictor/ corrector methods. Option for direct integration of second-order equations makes integration of trajectory problems significantly more efficient. Written in FORTRAN 77.

Solving Ordinary Differential Equations

Real and Complex Analysis

Monte Carlo is one of the most versatile and widely used numerical methods. Its convergence rate, O(N−1/2), is independent of dimension, which shows Monte Carlo to be very robust but also slow. This article presents an introduction to Monte Carlo methods for integration problems, including convergence theory, sampling methods and variance reduction techniques. Accelerated convergence for Monte Carlo quadrature is attained using quasi-random (also called low-discrepancy) sequences, which are a deterministic alternative to random or pseudo-random sequences. The points in a quasi-random sequence are correlated to provide greater uniformity. The resulting quadrature method, called quasi-Monte Carlo, has a convergence rate of approximately O((logN)kN−1). For quasi-Monte Carlo, both theoretical error estimates and practical limitations are presented. Although the emphasis in this article is on integration, Monte Carlo simulation of rarefied gas dynamics is also discussed. In the limit of small mean free path (that is, the fluid dynamic limit), Monte Carlo loses its effectiveness because the collisional distance is much less than the fluid dynamic length scale. Computational examples are presented throughout the text to illustrate the theory. A number of open problems are described.

http://dsec.pku.edu.cn/~tieli/notes/numer_anal/MCQMC_Caflisch.pdf

Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods

In this paper, we introduce a large system of interacting financial agents in which each agent is faced with the decision of how to allocate his capital between a risky stock or a risk-less bond. The investment decision of investors, derived through an optimization, drives the stock price. The model has been inspired by the econophysical Levy-Levy-Solomon model (Economics Letters, 45). The goal of this work is to gain insights into the stock price and wealth distribution. We especially want to discover the causes for the appearance of power-laws in financial data. We follow a kinetic approach similar to (D. Maldarella, L. Pareschi, Physica A, 391) and derive the mean field limit of our microscopic agent dynamics. The novelty in our approach is that the financial agents apply model predictive control (MPC) to approximate and solve the optimization of their utility function. Interestingly, the MPC approach gives a mathematical connection between the two opponent economic concepts of modeling financial agents to be rational or boundedly rational. Furthermore, this is to our knowledge the first kinetic portfolio model which considers a wealth and stock price distribution simultaneously. Due to our kinetic approach, we can study the wealth and price distribution on a mesoscopic level. The wealth distribution is characterized by a lognormal law. For the stock price distribution, we can either observe a lognormal behavior in the case of long-term investors or a power-law in the case of high-frequency trader. Furthermore, the stock return data exhibits a fat-tail, which is a well known characteristic of real financial data.

Portfolio Optimization and Model Predictive Control: A Kinetic Approach

In some recent works [G. Dimarco, L. Pareschi, Hybrid multiscale methods I. Hyperbolic Relaxation Problems, Comm. Math. Sci., 1, (2006), pp. 155-177], [G. Dimarco, L. Pareschi, Hybrid multiscale methods II. Kinetic equations, SIAM Multiscale Modeling and Simulation Vol 6., No 4,pp. 1169-1197, (2008)] we developed a general framework for the construction of hybrid algorithms which are able to face efficiently the multiscale nature of some hyperbolic and kinetic problems. Here, at variance with respect to the previous methods, we construct a method form-fitting to any type of finite volume or finite difference scheme for the reduced equilibrium system. Thanks to the coupling of Monte Carlo techniques for the solution of the kinetic equations with macroscopic methods for the limiting fluid equations, we show how it is possible to solve multiscale fluid dynamic phenomena faster with respect to traditional deterministic/stochastic methods for the full kinetic equations. In addition, due to the hybrid nature of the schemes, the numerical solution is affected by less fluctuations when compared to standard Monte Carlo schemes. Applications to the Boltzmann-BGK equation are presented to show the performance of the new methods in comparison with classical approaches used in the simulation of kinetic equations.

Fluid Solver Independent Hybrid Methods for Multiscale Kinetic equations

We consider the development of Monte Carlo schemes for molecules with Coulomb interactions. We generalize the classic algorithms of Bird and Nanbu-Babovsky for rarefied gas dynamics to the Coulomb case thanks to the approximation introduced by Bobylev and Nanbu (Theory of collision algorithms for gases and plasmas based on the Boltzmann equation and the Landau-Fokker-Planck equation, Physical Review E, Vol. 61, 2000). Thus, instead of considering the original Boltzmann collision operator, the schemes are constructed through the use of an approximated Boltzmann operator. With the above choice larger time steps are possible in simulations; moreover the expensive acceptance-rejection procedure for collisions is avoided and every particle collides. Error analysis and comparisons with the original Bobylev-Nanbu (BN) scheme are performed. The numerical results show agreement with the theoretical convergence rate of the approximated Boltzmann operator and the better performance of Bird-type schemes with respect to the original scheme.

Direct simulation Monte Carlo schemes for Coulomb interactions in plasmas

In this paper, we consider a simple kinetic model of economy involving both exchanges between agents and speculative trading. We show that the kinetic model admits non trivial quasi-stationary states with power law tails of Pareto type. In order to do this we consider a suitable asymptotic limit of the model yielding a Fokker-Planck equation for the distribution of wealth among individuals. For this equation the stationary state can be easily derived and shows a Pareto power law tail. Numerical results confirm the previous analysis.

On a kinetic model for a simple market economy

The rise of social networks as the primary means of communication in almost every country in the world has simultaneously triggered an increase in the amount of fake news circulating online. This fact became particularly evident during the 2016 U.S. political elections and even more so with the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several research studies have shown how the effects of fake news dissemination can be mitigated by promoting greater competence through lifelong learning and discussion communities, and generally rigorous training in the scientific method and broad interdisciplinary education. The urgent need for models that can describe the growing infodemic of fake news has been highlighted by the current pandemic. The resulting slowdown in vaccination campaigns due to misinformation and generally the inability of individuals to discern the reliability of information is posing enormous risks to the governments of many countries. In this research using the tools of kinetic theory we describe the interaction between fake news spreading and competence of individuals through multi-population models in which fake news spreads analogously to an infectious disease with different impact depending on the level of competence of individuals. The level of competence, in particular, is subject to an evolutionary dynamic due to both social interactions between agents and external learning dynamics. The results show how the model is able to correctly describe the dynamics of diffusion of fake news and the important role of competence in their containment.

Lorenzo Pareschi

Papers

Portfolio Optimization and Model Predictive Control: A Kinetic Approach

Fluid Solver Independent Hybrid Methods for Multiscale Kinetic equations

Direct simulation Monte Carlo schemes for Coulomb interactions in plasmas

On a kinetic model for a simple market economy

Spreading of fake news, competence, and learning: kinetic modeling and numerical approximation