The present review examines decision-making methods developed for dealing with uncertainties and applied to solve problems of civil engineering. Several methodological difficulties emerging from uncertainty quantification in decision-making are identified. The review is focused on formal methods of multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM). Handling of uncertainty by means of fuzzy logic and probabilistic modelling is analysed in light of MCDM. A sensitivity analysis of MCDM problems with uncertainties is discussed. An application of stochastic MCDM methods to a design of safety critical objects of civil engineering is considered. Prospects of using MCDM under uncertainty in developing areas of civil engineering are discussed in brief. These areas are design of sustainable and energy efficient buildings, building information modelling, and assurance of security and safety of built property. It is stated that before long the decision-making in civil engineering may face several methodological problems: the need to combine fuzzy and probabilistic representations of uncertainties in one decision-making matrix, the necessity to extend a global sensitivity analysis to all input elements of a MCDM problem with uncertainties, and an application of MCDM methods in the areas of civil engineering where decision-making under uncertainty is presently not common.

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Solving Civil Engineering Problems by Means of Fuzzy and Stochastic MCDM Methods: Current State and Future Research

: The design of infrastructure systems for “accidental” situations, i.e., abnormal service conditions, may include a comparison of alternative design solutions of system components. These solutions are compared by means of applying a universal methodology known as a multiattribute selection (MAS). The alternative designs are described by a number of attributes that characterize each of them. Failure probability and quantitative measure of the risk are used as safety-related attributes of the alternative designs. This article shows how to carry out the MAS in the presence of epistemic uncertainties in safety-related attributes. Distributions of epistemic uncertainties are specified by means of methods used for quantitative risk assessment. The MAS is carried out as a propagation of these uncertainties. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate uncertainties through the algorithm of MAS. The approach proposed in this article is illustrated by two examples, which consider alternative designs of a protective barrier and alternative sprinkler systems.

Multiattribute Selection from Alternative Designs of Infrastructure Components for Accidental Situations

............................................................................................................. v Acknowledgement ............................................................................................. vii Publications ........................................................................................................ x Awards.............................................................................................................. xiv List of

Development and application of a novel test method for studying the fire behaviour of CFRP prestressed concrete structural elements

The risk of fire in parking buildings is dependant on the probability of a fire occurring and the severity of the fire. This paper reviews the research data available on vehicle fires and suggests the severity of such a fire for a risk analysis. The paper then examines the historical data for vehicle fires in New Zealand parking buildings from 1995 to 2003 to determine the probability of the occurrence of such fires and the likelihood of multiple vehicle involvement. It is found that annual vehicle fire frequencies in parking buildings are generally lower than those in buildings of other occupancies but increases with the annual usage ratio.

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Analysis of Vehicle Fire Statistics in New Zealand Parking Buildings

Readymade garments are the most important export item from Bangladesh, yet the working conditions and fire safety records in the factories are often not up to the standard. Despite a number of initiatives to curb fire accidents in the garment industry, there are still a significant number of fire occurrences in this industry. Unfortunately, there is no comprehensive statistics on the current status of fire provisions and management practices in the readymade garment factories in Bangladesh. Given the management practices (soft issues) are often as important as structural fire safety measures, yet difficult to regulate, this paper develops a fire risk index (FRI), the first of its kind in Bangladesh, for soft parameters in the garment industry. FRI for 60 random garment factories are developed through surprise inspections to understand the current status of fire risk due to inadequacies in the soft parameters. Results show that the mean FRI is 2.8 on a scale of 5.0, which indicates an alarming condition. Locked exit doors, lack of emergency announcement system and lack of fire drills are the three worst performers among the 24 investigated parameters and require immediate attention from the regulators and stakeholders. We also observed a U-shaped relationship between FRI and factory size. Factories that are members of the industry’s trade lobby generally have better fire safety practices than the non-members. Given the importance of the readymade garment sector in many developing countries, poor fire safety record and lack of information on fire safety, our approach of developing an FRI for the industry can be very useful to understand the immediate concerns and thus to curb fatalities and injuries from fire accidents in this sector.

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M. Law

Papers

Evaluation of Fire Safety: Rasbash/Evaluation of Fire Safety

Stochastic Fire Risk Modeling

The Fire Safety System

Sources of Statistical Data

Fire Safety Concepts Tree and Derivative Approaches