Accurate forecast of energy consumption is essential in building energy management. Owing to the variation of outdoor weather condition among different seasons, year-round historical weather profile is needed to investigate its feature thoroughly. Daily weather profiles in the historical database contain various features, while different architecture of deep neural network (DNN) models may be identified suitable for specific featuring training datasets. In this study, an integrated artificial intelligence-based approach, consisting of feature extraction, evolutionary optimization and adaptive DNN model, is proposed to forecast week-ahead hourly building energy consumption. The DNN is the fundamental forecasting engine of the proposed model. Feature extraction of daily weather profile is accomplished through clustering techniques. Genetic algorithm is adopted to determine the optimal architecture of each DNN sub-model. Namely, each featuring cluster of weather profile, along with corresponding time signature and building energy consumption, is adopted to train one DNN sub-model. Therefore, the structure, activation function and training approach of DNN sub-models are adaptive to diverse featuring datasets in each cluster. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed predictive model, it is implemented on a real office building in the United Kingdom. Mean absolute percentage error of the training and testing cases of the proposed predictive model is 2.87% and 6.12%, which has a 24.6% and 11.9% decrease compared to DNN model with a fixed architecture. With the latest weather forecast, the devised adaptive DNN model can provide accurate week-ahead hourly energy consumption prediction for building energy management system.

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Feature extraction and genetic algorithm enhanced adaptive deep neural network for energy consumption prediction in buildings

Rotating machines are pivotal to the achievement of core operational objectives within various industries. Recent drives for developing smart systems coupled with the significant advancements in computational technologies have immensely increased the complexity of this group of critical physical industrial assets (PIAs). Vibration-based techniques have contributed significantly towards understanding the failure modes of rotating machines and their associated components. However, the very large data requirements attributable to routine vibration-based fault diagnosis at multiple measurement locations has led to the quest for alternative approaches that possess the capability to reduce faults diagnosis downtime. Initiatives aimed at rationalising vibration-based condition monitoring data in order to just retain information that offer maximum variability includes the combination of coherent composite spectrum (CCS) and principal components analysis (PCA) for rotor-related faults diagnosis. While there is no doubt about the potentials of this approach, especially that it is independent of the number of measurement locations and foundation types, its over-reliance on manual classification made it prone to human subjectivity and lack of repeatability. The current study therefore aims to further enhance existing CCS capability in two facets—(1) exploration of the possibility of automating the process by testing its compatibility with various machine learning techniques (2) incorporating spectrum energy as a novel feature. It was observed that artificial neural networks (ANN) offered the most accurate and consistent classification outcomes under all considered scenarios, which demonstrates immense opportunity for automating the process. The paper describes computational approaches, signal processing parameters and experiments used for generating the analysed vibration data.

Towards Developing an Automated Faults Characterisation Framework for Rotating Machines. Part 1: Rotor-Related Faults

In the electricity market, different pricing models can be applied to increase market competitiveness. Different electricity systems use different market structures. Uniform marginal pricing, zonal marginal pricing, and nodal marginal pricing methods are commonly used market structures. For markets wishing to move from a uniform pricing structure to a more competitive zonal pricing structure, the determination of price zones is critical for achieving a competitive market that generates accurate price signals. Three different pricing zone detection algorithms are analyzed in this paper including the k-means clustering and queen/rook spatially constraint clustering. Finally, the results of a case study for the Turkish electricity system are shared to compare each method.

https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/14/4/1014/pdf

Determination of Price Zones during Transition from Uniform to Zonal Electricity Market: A Case Study for Turkey

In this paper, a systematic method is proposed to cluster the energy consumption patterns of residential customers by utilizing extreme points and demographic characteristics. The extreme points of the energy consumption pattern enable effective clustering of residential customers. Additionally, demographic characteristics can be used to determine an effective extreme point for the clustering algorithm. The K-means-based features selection method is used to classify energy consumption patterns of residential customers into six types. Furthermore, the type of energy consumption pattern can be identified depending on the characteristics of residential customers. The analytical results of this paper show that the extreme points are effective in clustering the energy consumption patterns of residential customers.

https://www.mdpi.com/2079-9292/10/3/290/pdf

Clustering of Load Profiles of Residential Customers Using Extreme Points and Demographic Characteristics

At present, the continuous increase of household electricity demand is strategic and crucial in electricity demand management. Household electricity consumers can play an important role in this issue. The rationalization of electricity consumption might be achieved by using an efficient Demand Response (DR) program. In this paper a new methodology is suggested using a combination of data mining techniques namely K-means clustering, K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) classification and ARIMA for electricity load forecasting using consumers’ electricity prepaid bills data set of an ordinary electricity grid with prepaid electricity meters. As a result of applying this methodology, various DR programs are recommended as an attempt to assist the management of electricity system to manage the electricity demand issues from demand-side in an efficient and effective manner, which can be put into practice. A case study has been carried out in Tulkarm District, Palestine. The performance of applying the suggested methodology is measured, and the results are considered very well.

/pdf/household-electricity-load-forecasting-toward-demand-m8xk9qawlo.pdf

Household electricity load forecasting toward demand response program using data mining techniques in a traditional power grid

This paper presents a comprehensive data analysis and visualization of electricity consumers’ prepaid bills of Tulkarm district. We analyzed 250,000 electricity consumers’ prepaid bills covering the time period from June to December 2018. The application of data mining techniques for understanding electricity consumers’ behavior in electricity consumption and their behavior in charging their electricity meter’s smart cards in terms of quantities charged and charging frequencies in different time periods, areas and tariffs are used. Understanding consumers’ behavior will support planning and decision making at strategic, tactical and operational levels. This analysis is useful for predicting and forecasting future demand with a certain degree of accuracy. Monthly, weekly, daily and hourly time periods are covered in the analysis. Outliers detection using visualization tools such as box plot is applied. K-means unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithm is implemented. The support vector machine classification method is applied. As a result of this study, electricity consumers’ behavior in different areas, tariffs and timing periods is understood and presented by numbers and graphs and new electricity consumer segmentation is proposed.

Maher AbuBaker

Papers

Data Mining Applications in Understanding Electricity Consumers’ Behavior: A Case Study of Tulkarm District, Palestine