世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.2307%2F3343168.pdf

Development as Freedom

Selection of efficient institutions or policies in politics requires constituents to estimate the net benefits of political reforms. Political competition fails to inform constituents of the costs of forgone political alternatives. Ignorance of ‘political opportunity costs’ prevents the adoption of welfare enhancing reforms of public institutions and policies. The empirical record supports this contention.

The use of knowledge about society

The East Asian miracle: Economic growth and public policy: By the World Bank. (New York: Oxford University Press for the World Bank, 1993. 389 pp. $19.95, paper.)

Business groups—confederations of legally independent firms—are ubiquitous in emerging economies, yet very little is known about their effects on the performance of affiliated firms. We conceive of business groups as responses to market failures and high transaction costs. In doing so, we develop hypotheses about the effects of group affiliation on firm profitability: affiliation could either boost or depress firm profitability, and members of a group are likely to earn rates of return similar to other members of the same group. Using a unique data set compiled largely from local sources, we test for these effects in 14 emerging markets: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, India, Indonesia, Israel, Mexico, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey. We find evidence that business groups indeed affect the broad patterns of economic performance in 12 of the markets we examine. Group affiliation appears to have as profound an effect on profitability as does industry membership, yet strategy scholars have a much clearer grasp of industries than of groups. Moreover, membership in a group raises the profitability of the average group member in several of the markets we examine. This runs contrary to the wisdom, conventional in advanced economies, that unrelated diversification depresses profitability. Overall, our findings suggest that the roots of sustained differences in profitability may vary across institutional contexts; conclusions drawn in one context may well not apply to another. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/3094254.pdf

Estimating the performance effects of business groups in emerging markets

This paper assesses the extent to which foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries crowds in or crowds out domestic investment. The core of the paper is the development of a theoretical model for investment that includes a FDI variable and its estimation and testing with panel data for the period 1971–2000 and the three decades involved. The model is run for 12 countries in each of three developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America). The results indicate that, in all three developing regions, FDI has, at best, left domestic investment unchanged, and that there are several sub-periods for specific regions where FDI displaces domestic investment. In particular, there seems to be crowding out of domestic investment by FDI in Latin America. If these results are in fact correct, they suggests the need for policies to make FDI more effective in enhancing domestic investment in developing countries. The conclusion is that the effects of FDI on domestic investment are by no means always favoura...

/pdf/foreign-investment-in-developing-countries-does-it-crowd-in-l28gb5ncfv.pdf

Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?

Using a large dataset of countries during the last forty years, this paper analyzes the main determinants of export diversification. We explore the role of several factors and we use three different indicators of export diversification. We find robust evidence across specifications and indicators that trade openness induces higher specialization and does not favor export diversification. In contrast, financial development helps countries to diversify their exports. Looking at the effects of exchange rates, our results suggest a negative effect of real exchange rate overvaluation, but not significant effects of exchange rate volatility. We also find evidence that capital accumulation contributes positively to diversity exports and that increasing remoteness tend to reduce export diversification. We explore also the role of terms of trade shocks. Some of our results suggest that there is an interesting interaction between this variable and human capital. We find that improvements in terms of trade tend to concentrate exports, but this effect is lower for those countries with higher levels of human capital. This evidence suggests that countries with higher education can take advantage of positive terms of trade shocks to increase export diversification.

https://dialnet.unirioja.es/descarga/articulo/3725716.pdf

Determinants of Export Diversification Around the World: 1962-2000

This paper develops and tests a model of growth that emphasizes the introduction of new exports as the main source of growth in countries that are well within the global technology frontier and depend for growth on adapting existing products to their economic environment. It seeks to capture the stylized facts behind growth in countries as different as the Republic of Korea, Taiwan Province of China, Mauritius, Finland, China and Chile, all of which have relied on export diversification. The widening of comparative advantage is thus seen as the main driver of economic growth. The export diversification hypothesis is tested using an empirical growth model. Controlling for other variables that affect growth, export diversification —both alone and in interaction with growth in per capita export volumes— is found to be highly significant in explaining per capita gdp growth over the 1980-2003 period. KEYWORDS

/pdf/export-diversification-and-growth-in-emerging-economies-29cmvijs4j.pdf

Export diversification and growth in emerging economies

This paper assesses the extent to which foreign direct investment in developing countries crowds in or crowds out domestic investment. We develop a theoretical model of investment that includes an FDI variable and we proceed to test it with panel data for the period 1970–1996 and the two subperiods 1976–1985 and 1986–1996. The model is run for three developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America). One version of the model allows us to distinguish crowding in and crowding out effects for individual countries within each region. The results indicate that in Asia – but less so in Africa – there has been strong crowding in of domestic investment by FDI; by contrast, strong crowding out has been the norm in Latin America. The conclusion we reach is that the effects of FDI on domestic investment are by no means always favorable and that simplistic policies toward FDI are unlikely to be optimal.

Foreign investment in developing countries, does it crowd in domestic investment?

https://www.econ.uchile.cl/uploads/publicacion/078efa65-0c68-47d6-8ac5-ae97a801958e.pdf

Manuel R. Agosin

Papers

Foreign Investment in Developing Countries: Does it Crowd in Domestic Investment?

Determinants of Export Diversification Around the World: 1962-2000

Export diversification and growth in emerging economies

Foreign investment in developing countries, does it crowd in domestic investment?

Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops☆