Probability Distributions.- Linear Models for Regression.- Linear Models for Classification.- Neural Networks.- Kernel Methods.- Sparse Kernel Machines.- Graphical Models.- Mixture Models and EM.- Approximate Inference.- Sampling Methods.- Continuous Latent Variables.- Sequential Data.- Combining Models.

Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning

Flip your classroom: Reach every student in every class every day

Generalized Linear Models (2nd ed.)

by J. Biggs and C. Tang, Maidenhead, England,
Open University Press, 2007, 360 pp., £29.99, ISBN-13: 978-0-335-22126-4

Teaching for quality learning at university

https://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/bhat/ABSTRACTS/AMAR_review_article.pdf

Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological frontier and future directions

Public opinion surveys have become progressively incorporated into systems of official statistics. Surveys of the economic climate are usually qualitative because they collect opinions of businesspeople and/or experts about the long-term indicators described by a number of variables. In such cases, the responses are expressed in ordinal numbers, that is, the respondents verbally report, for example, whether during a given trimester the sales or the new orders have increased, decreased or remained the same as in the previous trimester. This data allows for the ability to calculate the percent of respondents in the total population (results are extrapolated), who select every one of the three options. Data is often presented in the form of an index calculated as the difference between the percent of those who claim that a given variable has improved in value and of those who claim that it has deteriorated. As in any survey conducted on a sample the question of the measurement of the sample error of the results has to be addressed, since the error influences both the reliability of the results and the calculation of the sample size adequate for a desired confidence interval. The results presented here are based on data from the Survey of the Business Climate (Encuesta de Clima Empresarial) developed through the collaboration of the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (Institut d’Estadistica de Catalunya) with the Chambers of Commerce (Camaras de Comercio) of Sabadell and Terrassa.

/pdf/calculation-of-the-variance-in-surveys-of-the-economic-4agdykrpo5.pdf

Calculation of the Variance in Surveys of the Economic Climate

XGBoost is recognized as an algorithm with exceptional predictive capacity. Models for a binary response indicating the existence of accident claims versus no claims can be used to identify the determinants of traffic accidents. This study compared the relative performances of logistic regression and XGBoost approaches for predicting the existence of accident claims using telematics data. The dataset contained information from an insurance company about the individuals’ driving patterns—including total annual distance driven and percentage of total distance driven in urban areas. Our findings showed that logistic regression is a suitable model given its interpretability and good predictive capacity. XGBoost requires numerous model-tuning procedures to match the predictive performance of the logistic regression model and greater effort as regards to interpretation.

/pdf/predicting-motor-insurance-claims-using-telematics-data-p06lph6guh.pdf

Predicting Motor Insurance Claims Using Telematics Data—XGBoost versus Logistic Regression

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

/pdf/a-logistic-regression-approach-to-estimating-customer-profit-4owo52sqvg.pdf

A Logistic Regression Approach to Estimating Customer Profit Loss Due to Lapses in Insurance

The impact of traffic violations on the estimated cost of traffic accidents with victims

Evidence on trends in prevalence of disease and disability can clarify whether countries are experiencing a compression or expansion of morbidity. An expansion of morbidity as indicated by disease have appeared in Europe and other developed regions. It is likely that better treatment, preventive measures and increases in education levels have contributed to the declines in mortality and increments in life expectancy. This paper examines whether there has been an expansion of morbidity in Catalonia (Spain). It uses trends in mortality and morbidity from major causes of death and links of these with survival to provide estimates of life expectancy with and without diseases and functioning loss. We use a repeated cross-sectional health survey carried out in 1994 and 2011 for measures of morbidity; mortality information comes from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Our findings show that at age 65 the percentage of life with disease increased from 52% to 70% for men, and from 56% to 72% for women; the expectation of life unable to function increased from 24% to 30% for men and 40% to 47% for women between 1994 and 2011. These changes were attributable to increases in the prevalences of diseases and moderate functional limitation. Overall, we find an expansion of morbidity along the period. Increasing survival among people with diseases can lead to a higher prevalence of diseases in the older population. Higher prevalence of health problems can lead to greater pressure on the health care system and a growing burden of disease for individuals.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2378948_code1644941.pdf?abstractid=2378948&mirid=1&type=2

Manuela Alcañiz

Papers

Calculation of the Variance in Surveys of the Economic Climate

Predicting Motor Insurance Claims Using Telematics Data—XGBoost versus Logistic Regression

A Logistic Regression Approach to Estimating Customer Profit Loss Due to Lapses in Insurance

The impact of traffic violations on the estimated cost of traffic accidents with victims

Are We Living Longer but Less Healthy? Trends in Mortality and Morbidity in Catalonia (Spain), 1994-2011