Forecasting with artificial neural networks: the state of the art

What makes organizations so similar? We contend that the engine of rationalization and bureaucratization has moved from the competitive marketplace to the state and the professions. Once a set of organizations emerges as a field, a paradox arises: rational actors make their organizations increasingly similar as they try to change them. We describe three isomorphic processes-coercive, mimetic, and normative—leading to this outcome. We then specify hypotheses about the impact of resource centralization and dependency, goal ambiguity and technical uncertainty, and professionalization and structuration on isomorphic change. Finally, we suggest implications for theories of organizations and social change.

The iron cage revisited: Institutional isomorphism and collective rationality in organizational fields (Chinese Translation)

Designing a neural network for forecasting financial and economic time series

This study analyzes the comparison between traditional statistical methodologies for distress classification and prediction, i.e., linear discriminant (LDA) or logit analyses, with an artificial intelligence algorithm known as neural networks (NN). Analyzing well over 1,000 healthy, vulnerable and unsound industrial Italian firms from 1982–1992, this study was carried out at the Centrale dei Bilanci in Turin, Italy and is now being tested in actual diagnostic situations. The results are part of a larger effort involving separate models for industrial, retailing/trading and construction firms. The results indicate a balanced degree of accuracy and other beneficial characteristics between LDA and NN. We are particularly careful to point out the problems of the ‘black-box’ NN systems, including illogical weightings of the indicators and overfitting in the training stage both of which negatively impacts predictive accuracy. Both types of diagnoslic techniques displayed acceptable, over 90%, classificalion and holdoul sample accuracy and the study concludes that there certainly should be further studies and tests using the two lechniques and suggests a combined approach for predictive reinforcement.

Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)

Bankruptcy prediction in banks and firms via statistical and intelligent techniques – A review

A neural network model is developed for prediction of bankruptcy, and it is tested using financial data from various companies. The same set of data is analyzed using a more traditional method of bankruptcy prediction, multivariate discriminant analysis. A comparison of the predictive abilities of both the neural network and the discriminant analysis method is presented. The results show that neural networks might be applicable to this problem

A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction

Internet commerce is exploding and predicted to continue growing at a rapid rate for several more years. Online businesses that have a desire to tap into this Internet commerce explosion are seeking ways to convince online browsers to become online purchasers. To achieve this goal, businesses need to find ways to alleviate consumers' fears and concerns about making online purchases. This paper reports on a series of three studies focused on (1) determining the fears and concerns that online consumers have, (2) examining whether the leading brands of web assurance seals (Verisign®, TRUSTe, Good House Keeping, and CPA WebTrust) can help alleviate those fears and concerns, and (3) gaining insights into the process by which web assurance seals can influence consumers' online purchase decisions. This study identified seven distinct concerns that consumers had with purchasing goods/services online. Factor analysis revealed that these concerns were along two dimensions: concerns about the firm and concerns about...

Web Assurance Seals: How and Why They Influence Consumers' Decisions

Internet abuse in the workplace (a.k.a. cyber-slacking) has become a pervasive problem for employers. When employees abuse the Internet through activities like online gaming, online shopping, personal investment managing, personal emailing, chatting, media watching and viewing pornography, they waste work time and reduce available bandwidth. Existing research has failed to build consensus about who is most likely to cyber-slack. This study examines individuals from the United States, Asia, and India and develops clusters of typical patterns of cyber-slacking and examines the impact of demographic and work related factors on predicting individual cluster membership. The results reveal that young executives are the most likely to cyber-slack and a further qualitative analysis reveals that the pressure of their jobs are compelling them to look for stress relievers and the Internet is an easy resource. In addition, young executive's high degree of autonomy also appears to perpetuate their propensity ...

Profiling Cyber-Slackers in the Workplace: Demographic, Cultural, and Workplace Factors

1. INTRODUCTION Mentoring can take many forms. In some cases, a senior member of the organization is assigned to "show the ropes" to a new employee or junior faculty member; in other settings, it can be a senior faculty member that a younger, junior faculty member is comfortable with when needing advice on decisions or problems they are faced with; or it can take the form of a conversation (or series of conversations) that took place early in an individual's career. In each instance, the mentor provides advice, direction, and serves as a role model for the younger individual. These relationships can be ongoing, irregular, or of very short duration; however, these interactions have a profound impact on the future direction and decisions of the younger individual. Many times these interactions provide a roadmap for the success or failure of the younger individual. In an academic setting, mentoring requires that a senior faculty member be willing to take the time to listen and provide direction to students and/or junior faculty members. Mentoring can be a rewarding, sometimes frustrating, and time consuming process; but it is a role that should be embraced by senior faculty. It is posited that through the mentoring process senior faculty members can make their most significant contribution to future generations. There are many instances where an individual's greatest legacy is not the number of publications that he or she achieved, but their influence on the future generations through listening, providing advice, serving as a role model, and helping students or junior faculty understand what it takes to be successful. Over the past decade, there has been considerable discussion that the Information Systems (IS) academic community is facing an identity crisis. Benbasat and Zmud (2003), Agarwal and Lucas (2003), Wu and Saunders (2003), Alter (2003) and Robey (2003) have provided opinions as to whether this identity crisis actually exists, and recommendations on how the crisis can be overcome. The common theme from these discussions seems to be that faculty within the IS field must undertake research that reverberates across the business community and society in general (Agarwal and Lucas, 2003). Without this type of research, the IS discipline will not be able to achieve legitimacy within the academic community or with other important external stakeholders. Identifying and completing this type of research is difficult, especially for junior faculty members. Junior faculty members are pressured by the tenure and promotion decision that typically occurs during their sixth year of employment. These junior faculties must perform well to succeed in the academic profession. We believe the productivity of these junior faculty members typically is highly affected by their academic training and by the relationship they have developed with a senior faculty member (a mentor). A mentor who has been successful in academia and who has published can generally provide direction on topic selection, method of study, possible outlets for manuscripts, and help with the review process. This type of relationship with a mentor helps the junior faculty member produce research that has the necessary rigor and relevance to be publishable in the top-tier journals of the IS discipline. Studies have examined many factors that contribute to the success of junior faculty members and have attributed their success, failure, and productivity to a complex combination of individual, institutional, and social factors (Blackburn, Chapman, and Cameron, 1981; Bowen and Rudenstien, 1992; Cook and Swanson, 1978; de Velero 2001; Golde and Dore, 2001; Hunter and Kuh, 1987). One factor that has been overlooked, particularly in the study of business schools, is the role that mentoring can have in the productivity of the junior faculty member. The few studies that have addressed this issue have reported mixed results (Blackburn et al. …

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Marcus D. Odom

Papers

A neural network model for bankruptcy prediction

Web Assurance Seals: How and Why They Influence Consumers' Decisions

Profiling Cyber-Slackers in the Workplace: Demographic, Cultural, and Workplace Factors

Exploring the Importance of Mentoring for New Scholars: A Social Exchange Perspective.

An experimental evaluation of the effects of internal and external e-Assurance on initial trust formation in B2C e-commerce