. The Gulf of Cadiz, as part of the Azores-Gibraltar plate boundary, is recognized as a potential source of big earthquakes and tsunamis that may affect the bordering countries, as occurred on 1 November 1755. Preparing for the future, Portugal is establishing a national tsunami warning system in which the threat caused by any large-magnitude earthquake in the area is estimated from a comprehensive database of scenarios. In this paper we summarize the knowledge about the active tectonics in the Gulf of Cadiz and integrate the available seismological information in order to propose the generation model of destructive tsunamis to be applied in tsunami warnings. The fault model derived is then used to estimate the recurrence of large earthquakes using the fault slip rates obtained by Cunha et al. (2012) from thin-sheet neotectonic modelling. Finally we evaluate the consistency of seismicity rates derived from historical and instrumental catalogues with the convergence rates between Eurasia and Nubia given by plate kinematic models.

https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/13/1/2013/nhess-13-1-2013.pdf

Tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Gulf of Cadiz: fault model and recurrence

Since 2015, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and its partners have been supporting regional programs and bilateral collaborations to develop an open global earthquake risk model. These ...

Development of a global seismic risk model

A vulnerability model capable of providing the probabilistic distribution of loss ratio for a set of intensity measure levels is a fundamental tool to perform earthquake loss estimation and seismic risk assessment. The aim of the study presented herein is to develop a set of vulnerability functions for 48 reinforced concrete building typologies, categorized based on the date of construction (which has a direct relation with the design code level), number of storeys (height of the building) and seismic zonation (which affects the design of the buildings). An analytical methodology was adopted, in which thousands of nonlinear dynamic analyses were performed on 2D moment resisting frames with masonry infills, using one hundred ground motion records that are compatible, to the extent possible, with the Portuguese tectonic environment. The generation of the structural models was carried out using the probabilistic distribution of a set of geometric and material properties, compiled based on information gathered from a large sample of drawings and technical specifications of typical Portuguese reinforced concrete buildings, located in various regions in the country. Various key aspects in the development of the vulnerability model are investigated herein, such as the selection of the ground motion records, the modelling of the infilled frames, the definition of the damage criterion and the evaluation of dynamic (i.e. period of vibration) and structural (i.e. displacement and base shear capacity) parameters of the frames. A statistical bootstrap method is demonstrated to estimate the variability of the loss ratio at each intensity measure level, allowing the estimation of the mean, as well as 10 and 90 % percentile vulnerability curves.

Investigation of the characteristics of Portuguese regular moment-frame RC buildings and development of a vulnerability model

Energy performance of existing residential buildings in Europe: A novel approach combining energy with seismic retrofitting

The current paper focuses on a sector of the historic centre of Muccia, in the district of Macerata (Italy), affected by the seismic sequence that involved Central Italy in 2016. The main goal is comparison, in terms of fragility curves, among two vulnerability assessment methodologies (empirical and mechanical). The study area has been structurally and typologically identified according to the Building Typology Matrix (BTM). Physical vulnerability analysis of the urban-sector was performed through application of an index-based method, specifically for masonry building aggregates. An isolated masonry building, damaged after the seismic sequences, has been selected as a case study. For the assessed building, empirical fragility curves are presented according to Guagenti & Petrini’s correlation law. Furthermore, a numerical model has been set up by using the macro-element approach, which has allowed to perform non-linear static analyses. Mechanical properties of masonry were defined according to the New Technical Codes for Constructions (NTC18), assuming a limited knowledge level (LC1). Refined mechanical fragility functions have been derived and compared to the empirical ones. Analysis results have shown that the empirical method tends to overestimate by 5% and 10% the expected damage for slight and moderate thresholds. For PGA values greater than 0,3 g the damage levels decreased by 30% and 20%, with reference to the near collapse and collapse conditions, respectively.

Comparative fragility methods for seismic assessment of masonry buildings located in Muccia (Italy)

The old buildings represent an important fraction of the urban fabric of the cities, which have implicit societal issues, like safety. This work deals with the seismic vulnerability assessment and risk analysis of the old building stock, with application to a neighbourhood in Lisbon. The studied neighbourhood includes three frequent building typologies in Portugal, i.e. stone masonry, “Placa” and RC buildings. Reference buildings for each typology were numerically modelled using the equivalent frame method. Pushover analysis was then performed to derive the vulnerability characteristics of the reference buildings and more general building classes, i.e. capacity and fragility curves, in order to assess the seismic vulnerability of the buildings and perform a seismic risk analysis. This last analysis was performed to estimate the building damages and the economic and life losses for different earthquake scenarios. Most of the studied buildings are found to be unsafe to the considered seismic actions and will suffer severe damages with associated large losses.

Seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of the old building stock at urban scale: application to a neighbourhood in Lisbon

Probabilistic seismic hazard for Mainland Portugal was re-evaluated in order to perform its disaggregation. Seismic hazard was disaggregated considering different spaces of random variables, namely, univariate conditional hazard distributions of M (magnitude), R (source-to-site distance) and e (deviation of ground motion to the median value predicted by an attenuation model), bivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R and X–Y (seismic source latitude and longitude) or multivariate conditional hazard distributions of M–R–e and M–(X–Y)–e. The main objective of the present work was achieved, as it was possible, based on the modal values of the above mentioned distributions, to characterize the scenarios that dominate some seismic hazard levels of the 278 Mainland Portuguese counties. In addition, results of 4D disaggregation analysis, in M–(X–Y)–e, pointed out the existence of one geographic location shared by the dominant scenario of most analyzed counties, especially for hazard levels correspondent to high return periods. Those dominant scenarios are located offshore at a distance of approximately 70 km WSW of S. Vicente cape. On the other hand, the lower the return period the higher is the number of modal scenarios in the neighbourhood of the analyzed site. One may conclude that modal scenarios reproduce hazard target values in each site with great accuracy enabling the applications derived from those scenarios (e.g. loss evaluation) to be associated to a hazard level exceedance probability.

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

This paper presents a study on the techno-economic efficiency of seismic strengthening techniques for old residential buildings, with application to construction typologies in Lisbon (stone masonry...

Efficiency and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Seismic Strengthening Techniques for Old Residential Buildings in Lisbon

The evolution of the expected earthquake losses in different Portuguese regions was studied in order to determine whether the natural regeneration of buildings could contribute to the mitigation of seismic risk, although the building exposure has increased over time in most analysed regions. To achieve this goal, five inter-related risk indicators were estimated, based on the Portuguese censuses’ surveys of residential buildings and inhabitants obtained in two different moments in time: 2001 and 2011. The FEMA (2008) approach was used to estimate the risk indicators, i.e., the Annualized Economic and Human earthquake Losses, either in absolute terms or normalised by building and population exposure. This study offers a perspective of the seismic risk in the Portuguese mainland, provides a comparison of risk levels between different epochs, and analyses the obtained results in order to compare the risk among Portuguese regions. It is important to mention that the comparison of economic losses based on the building stocks surveyed in 2001 and in 2011 took into account the Portuguese inflation rate in that time interval. The main findings of the study show that the natural regeneration of the residential housing stock contributes to the reduction of the expected seismic economic losses in Portugal, at an average rate of 14 % per 10 years, and to the reduction of the expected annualized human losses to almost one half after 10 years. The results support the conclusion that the natural regeneration of the residential housing stock contributed to the mitigation of the seismic risk in mainland Portugal, in the 10 year period under analysis, even though there was an increase of the building exposure in the region.

Evolution of earthquake losses in Portuguese residential building stock

Outlining the best strategies for seismic risk mitigation requires that both benefits and costs of retrofitting are known in advance. The assessment of the vulnerability of building typologies is a first step of a more extensive effort, concerning the analysis of the viability of seismic risk mitigation and taking into account retrofitting costs. The methodology adopted to obtain the seismic vulnerability of some classes of residential buildings existing in mainland Portugal is presented. This methodology is based on a structural analysis of individual buildings belonging to the same typology. An application example is presented to illustrate the methodology. Fragility curves of “boxed” building typology are also presented and broken down into three height classes: low-rise, medium-rise and high-rise. These curves are based on average capacity spectra derived from several individual buildings belonging to the same typology.

/pdf/seismic-vulnerability-from-building-evaluation-to-a-typology-2oe00pc66f.pdf

Maria Luísa Sousa

Papers

Seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of the old building stock at urban scale: application to a neighbourhood in Lisbon

Ground motion scenarios consistent with probabilistic seismic hazard disaggregation analysis. Application to Mainland Portugal

Efficiency and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Seismic Strengthening Techniques for Old Residential Buildings in Lisbon

Evolution of earthquake losses in Portuguese residential building stock

Seismic vulnerability: from building evaluation to a typology generalization