Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model

In the era of industrial digitalization, companies are increasingly investing in tools and solutions that allow their processes, machines, employees, and even the products themselves, to be integrated into a single integrated network for data collection, data analysis, the evaluation of company development, and performance improvement. To study the impact of Industry 4.0 on the company we used Porter’s (1985) value chain model, which is particularly useful when paying particular attention to corporate areas which have a primary role in customer value creation. Since the primary impact of Industry 4.0 is perceived in value-creating processes, and has so far had the greatest transformative effect in this area, the model can be considered to be appropriate. The objective of our research is to discover how companies operating in Hungary interpret the phenomenon of Industry 4.0, what Internet of Things (IoT) tools they use to support their processes, and what critical issues they face during adaptation. We applied a dual methodology in our investigation: We sent an online questionnaire to manufacturing and logistical service companies to investigate the IoT tools they use, and the problems they face, and received 43 answers we could evaluate. We also conducted four expert interviews with manufacturing firms to get deeper insights into the application, critical issues and development phases of IoT tools. During our research, we found that the spread of real-time data across companies—given the availability of appropriate analytical tools and methods—can have a significant impact on the entire company. In the case of CPS (Cyber Physical System), CPPS and Big Data Technologies, companies using them have been evaluated as having a higher level of logistic service, more efficient processes with their partners, improved cooperation between certain logistic functions, and higher market and financial performance and competitiveness. Applying more efficient production processes, and achieving better productivity and economies of scale, might also result in increased economic sustainability. Furthermore, we have found that companies have started on the path to digital evolution, and investments of this type have already begun.

The Role and Impact of Industry 4.0 and the Internet of Things on the Business Strategy of the Value Chain—The Case of Hungary

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Operations research: applications and algorithms / Wayne L. Winston

(1966). Management Goals and Accounting for Control. Journal of the Operational Research Society: Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 486-486.

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Management Goals and Accounting for Control

This paper reviews the literature on the effects of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption. It aims to provide a cohesive picture of empirical archival literature on how IFRS adoption affects: financial reporting quality, capital markets, corporate decision making, stewardship and governance, debt contracting, and auditing. In addition, we also present discussion of studies that focus on specific attributes of IFRS, and also provide detailed discussion of research design choices and empirical issues researchers face when evaluating IFRS adoption effects. We broadly summarize the development of the IFRS literature as follows: The majority of early studies paint IFRS as bringing significant benefits to adopting firms and countries in terms of (i) improved transparency, (ii) lower costs of capital, (iii) improved cross-country investments, (iv) better comparability of financial reports, and (v) increased following by foreign analysts. However, these documented benefits tended to vary significantly across firms and countries. More recent studies now attribute at least some of the earlier documented benefits to factors other than adoption of new accounting standards per se, such as enforcement changes. Other recent studies examining the effects of IFRS on the inclusion of accounting numbers in formal contracts point out that IFRS has lowered the contractibility of accounting numbers. Finally, we observe substantial variation in empirical designs across papers which makes it difficult to reconcile differences in their conclusions.

A review of the IFRS adoption literature

Every corporation has an economic and moral responsibility to its stockholders to perform well financially. However, the number of bankruptcies in Slovakia has been growing for several years without an apparent macroeconomic cause. To prevent a rapid denigration and to prevent the outflow of foreign capital, various efforts are being zealously implemented. Robust analysis using conventional bankruptcy prediction tools revealed that the existing models are adaptable to local conditions, particularly local legislation. Furthermore, it was confirmed that most of these outdated tools have sufficient capability to warn of impending financial problems several years in advance. A novel bankruptcy prediction tool that outperforms the conventional models was developed. However, it is increasingly challenging to predict bankruptcy risk as corporations have become more global and more complex and as they have developed sophisticated schemes to hide their actual situations under the guise of "optimization" for tax authorities. Nevertheless, scepticism remains because economic engineers have established bankruptcy as a strategy to limit the liability resulting from court-imposed penalties.

Bankruptcy Prevention: New Effort to Reflect on Legal and Social Changes

In our study, we focused on the assessment of four bankruptcy prediction models, to figure out which model is most appropriate in the conditions of the Slovak business environment. Based on the previous research within the Slovak conditions, we set a portfolio of 4 models to be assessed: Altman model (1984), Ohlson model (1980), indexes IN01 and IN05 that were validated on the sample of 700 Slovak companies. Based on previous studies we expected that IN indexes are superior to Ohlson and Altman model. The excellency of our research lies in validation and assessing the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models at three levels: the overall accuracy, accuracy of the bankruptcy prediction, and the non-bankruptcy prediction accuracy. This analytical structure enables to look at the topic more complexly and to increase the objectification of accuracy of analysed models. Based on the results, we showed that Ohlson model is not applicable to predict bankruptcy in the Slovak conditions as reached the lowest bankruptcy prediction ability even if has high non bankruptcy prediction ability. On the other hand, we have confirmed our expectation about the bankruptcy prediction ability of index IN05, that is proven to be superior to Ohlson and Altman model and so is the most appropriate model for Slovak business environment.

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Predictive potential and risks of selected bankruptcy prediction models in the Slovak business environment

Corporate failure can exist in various types and dimensions, and has different effects on stakeholders according to magnitude of the failure and its type. The rise of corporate failure in different types brought about the use of different definitions and different concepts connoting failure. Over the past 35 years, the topic of “business failure prediction” has developed to a major research domain in corporate finance. Many academic studies have been dedicated to the search for the best corporate failure prediction, based on publicly available data and statistical techniques. This article will be focus on techniques used for prediction of bankruptcy such as logit and probit analysis.

Logit and Probit Model used for Prediction of Financial Health of Company

Discriminant Analysis as a Tool for Forecasting Company's Financial Health

Research background: Bankruptcy shouldn´t be considered only as negative phenomena although its impact is for companies in most cases more than devastating. This change of point of view is invoked by the needs of contemporary socio-economic evolution. If society wants to reach sustainable development, the bankruptcy should be perceived as an immanent part of normal cyclical economic development. Moreover, if the view of bankruptcy is changed in a positive way, it can be a stimulus for innovations, investment and global welfare. But it is not possible without an  increase in the effectiveness of national and international bankruptcy law.Purpose of the article: The goal of this study is to analyse the position of a creditor in the case of a debtor´s bankruptcy on the basis of comparative law in the Slovak Republic de lege ferenda. It is because we assume that continuous attention should be given to the issue of the creditor?s position with regard to a debtor´s bankruptcy to achieve sustainable economic development.Methods: The potential consideration de lege ferenda should be based not only on performed legal analysis, but also on performed economic analysis. So, selected countries have been evaluated according to specific economic and legal indicators. We used the interdisciplinary approach based on selection analysis and legal comparative analysis applied to international comparison of the status of creditor and the effectiveness of bankruptcy law from his point of view.Findings & Value added: The applied approach has led us to the detection of the most important insolvency laws, specifically the insolvency laws of the United States and Austria. These legislations were further applied in the context of consideration de lege ferenda over the position of a creditor in the case of a debtor´s bankruptcy in the Slovak Republic.

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Maria Misankova

Papers

Bankruptcy Prevention: New Effort to Reflect on Legal and Social Changes

Predictive potential and risks of selected bankruptcy prediction models in the Slovak business environment

Logit and Probit Model used for Prediction of Financial Health of Company

Discriminant Analysis as a Tool for Forecasting Company's Financial Health

Bankruptcy in slovakia: international comparison of the creditor´s position