Offering a unifying theoretical perspective not readily available in any other text, this innovative guide to econometrics uses simple geometrical arguments to develop students' intuitive understanding of basic and advanced topics, emphasizing throughout the practical applications of modern theory and nonlinear techniques of estimation. One theme of the text is the use of artificial regressions for estimation, reference, and specification testing of nonlinear models, including diagnostic tests for parameter constancy, serial correlation, heteroscedasticity, and other types of mis-specification. Explaining how estimates can be obtained and tests can be carried out, the authors go beyond a mere algebraic description to one that can be easily translated into the commands of a standard econometric software package. Covering an unprecedented range of problems with a consistent emphasis on those that arise in applied work, this accessible and coherent guide to the most vital topics in econometrics today is indispensable for advanced students of econometrics and students of statistics interested in regression and related topics. It will also suit practising econometricians who want to update their skills. Flexibly designed to accommodate a variety of course levels, it offers both complete coverage of the basic material and separate chapters on areas of specialized interest.

Estimation and Inference in Econometrics

The 2008 crash has left all the established economic doctrines - equilibrium models, real business cycles, disequilibria models - in disarray. Part of the problem is due to Smith’s "veil of ignorance": individuals unknowingly pursue society’s interest and, as a result, have no clue as to the macroeconomic effects of their actions: witness the Keynes and Leontief multipliers, the concept of value added, fiat money, Engel’s law and technical progress, to name but a few of the macrofoundations of microeconomics. A good viewpoint to take bearings anew lies in comparing the post-Great Depression institutions with those emerging from Thatcher and Reagan’s economic policies: deregulation, exogenous vs. endoge- nous money, shadow banking vs. Volcker’s Rule. Very simply, the banks, whose lending determined deposits after Roosevelt, and were a public service became private enterprises whose deposits determine lending. These underlay the great moderation preceding 2006, and the subsequent crash.

The Economic Institutions of Capitalism

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The Theory of Industrial Organization

Over the past two decades, academic economics has undergone a mild revolution in methodology. The language, concepts and techniques of noncooperative game theory have become central to the discipline. This book provides the reader with some basic concepts from noncooperative theory, and then goes on to explore the strengths, weaknesses, and future of the theory as a tool of economic modelling and analysis. The central theses are that noncooperative game theory has been a remarkably popular tool in economics over the past decade because it allows analysts to capture essential features of dynamic competition and competition where some parties have proprietary information. The theory is weakest in providing a sense of when it - and equilibrium analysis in particular - can be applied and what to do when equilibrium analysis is inappropriate. Many of these weaknesses can be addressed by the consideration of individuals who are boundedly rational and learn imperfectly from the past. Written in a non-technical style and working by analogy, the book, first given as part of the Clarendon Lectures in Economics, is readily accessible to a broad audience and will be of interest to economists and students alike. Knowledge of game theory is not required as the concepts are developed as the book progresses.

Game Theory and Economic Modelling

Procurement contracts are often renegotiated because of changes that are required after their execution Using highway paving contracts we show that renegotiation imposes significant adaptation costs Reduced form regressions suggest that bidders respond strategically to contractual incompleteness and that adaptation costs are an important determinant of their bids A structural empirical model compares adaptation costs to bidder markups and shows that adaptation costs account for 75–14 percent of the winning bid Markups from private information and market power, the focus of much of the auctions literature, are much smaller by comparison Implications for government procurement are discussed (JEL D44, D82, D86, H57, L13, L74, R42)

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Bidding for Incomplete Contracts: An Empirical Analysis of Adaptation Costs

The lack of flexibility in public procurement design and implementation reflects public agents' political risk adaptation to limit hazards from opportunistic third parties - political opponents, competitors, interest groups - while externalizing the associated adaptation costs to the public at large. Reduced flexibility limits the likelihood of opportunistic challenge lowering third parties' expected gains and increasing litigation costs. We provide a comprehensible theoretical framework with empirically testable predictions.

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Third-Party Opportunism and the Nature of Public Contracts

This paper presents a model to assess the efficiency of the capital structure in public-private partnerships (PPP). A main argument supporting the PPP approach for investment projects is the transfer of know-how from the private partner to the public entity. The paper shows how different knowledge transfer schemes determine an optimal shareholding structure of the PPP. Under the assumption of lower capital cost of the public partner and lower development outlays when the investment is carried out by a private investor, an optimal capital structure is achieved with both the public and the private parties as shareholders.

Optimal Capital Structure of Public-Private Partnerships

This paper presents a rationale for hybrid public-private capital structures in public utilities. The public sector can borrow money cheaper, while private investors can spawn life-cycle cost savings. When investment vehicles enable the internalization of the financial advantage of the public sector and the managerial advantage of the private sector, a Pareto-efficient capital structure is achieved with both the public and private parties as shareholders. I show how different knowledge transfer schemes determine the optimal shareholding structure for the utility company.

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Efficient public‐private capital structures

We assembled a large panel of project-level technical and financial data as well as country-level economic, institutional, political, and governance variables to assess the determinants of private financing of infrastructure in emerging markets and developing economies. Controlling for economic characteristics, we find that overall private participation of infrastructure financing increases with freedom from corruption, rule of law, quality of regulations, and decreases with court disputes. We provide plausible explanations of deviations from this pattern when data are disaggregated at the sectoral level. We also found that legal systems --- types of democracy or dictatorship --- do not play a role in whether the private sector invests in infrastructure, but it increases with third-party government oversight, namely opposition party activity. Our results do not vary when controlling for income inequality and across quartiles of experience, country wealth, and per capita income. The study shows that upstream "enabling" institutions, policies, and regulations and sector economics need to be addressed simultaneously to facilitate private infrastructure investment financing.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID2612645_code717939.pdf?abstractid=2508474&mirid=1&type=2

Marian W. Moszoro

Papers

Third-Party Opportunism and the Nature of Public Contracts

Optimal Capital Structure of Public-Private Partnerships

Efficient public‐private capital structures

Optimal Capital Structure of Public-Private Partnerships

Institutional and Political Determinants of Private Participation in Infrastructure