计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

This project will deliver help to reduce the vulnerability of poor people in Haiti to the effects of climate change, while at the same time conserving threatened coastal and marine biodiversity. Investments in climateproofed and socially-sustainable BD conservation strategies, within the context of the National Protected Areas System (NPAS), will enable coastal and marine ecosystems to continue to generate Ecosystem-Based Adaptation (EBA) services; while additional investment of adaptation funds in the watersheds which drain into these ecosystems will serve to maximize BD benefits and ecosystem functions, as well as generating EBA benefits for the populations living in the watersheds themselves.

/pdf/the-united-nations-development-programme-3oj9udayrc.pdf

The United Nations Development Programme

This paper investigates the role of social learning in the diffusion of a new agri cultural technology in Ghana. We use unique data on farmers' communication patterns to define each individual's information neighborhood. Conditional on many potentially confounding variables, we find evidence that farmers adjust their inputs to align with those of their information neighbors who were surpris ingly successful in previous periods. The relationship of these input adjustments to experience further indicates the presence of social learning. In addition, applying the same method to input choices for another crop, of known technol ogy, correctly indicates an absence of social learning effects. (JEL D83, 013, 033, Q16)

/pdf/learning-about-a-new-technology-pineapple-in-ghana-3vxvkgahoh.pdf

Learning About a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana

For Adam Smith, wealth was related to the division of labor As people and firms specialize in different activities, economic efficiency increases, suggesting that development is associated with an increase in the number of individual activities and with the complexity that emerges from the interactions between them Here we develop a view of economic growth and development that gives a central role to the complexity of a country's economy by interpreting trade data as a bipartite network in which countries are connected to the products they export, and show that it is possible to quantify the complexity of a country's economy by characterizing the structure of this network Furthermore, we show that the measures of complexity we derive are correlated with a country's level of income, and that deviations from this relationship are predictive of future growth This suggests that countries tend to converge to the level of income dictated by the complexity of their productive structures, indicating that development efforts should focus on generating the conditions that would allow complexity to emerge to generate sustained growth and prosperity

https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/106/26/10570.full.pdf

The building blocks of economic complexity

When local cost discovery generates knowledge spillovers, specialization patterns become partly indeterminate and the mix of goods that a country produces may have important implications for economic growth. We demonstrate this proposition formally and adduce some empirical support for it. We construct an index of the "income level of a country's exports," document its properties, and show that it predicts subsequent economic growth.

What You Export Matters

What is Endogenous Growth Theory

This report describes the progress of urbanization and structural transformation in South Asia, the market and policy failures that have shaped the region’s towns and cities, and the decisive actions needed to better leverage urbanization for South Asian prosperity and livability. Part one (chapters one–two) sets the context by analyzing key urbanization developments and related trends of structural transformation and economic growth. Part two (chapters three-six) discusses and diagnoses the main policy problems, identifies areas for policy reform, and provides examples of best practices from both within and outside the region to help inform the decisions of policy makers and practitioners. Chapter one focuses on recent urbanization related outcomes and trends at the regional level. It provides a broad comparison of the region’s current state with other world regions and with historical trends in developed countries. Chapter two then provides a spatially detailed analysis of trends and outcomes within the region and at the subnational level. The chapters of part two identify four fundamental areas for policy action: governance and finance; connectivity and planning; land and housing; and resilience to natural disaster and the effects of climate change. The four areas are interlinked. Governance and finance (chapter three) are fundamental to the supply of urban infrastructure and basic services and thus also undergird the three other policy areas. Indeed, improvements in the way South Asia’s cities are governed and financed may be a precondition for achieving meaningful progress in these other areas and therefore in prosperity and livability. Of course, the ways in which cities are planned and connected (chapter four) also influence the supply of affordable housing (chapter five). Likewise, urban planning policies, and their enforcement, help determine a city’s resilience to natural disaster and the effects of climate change (chapter six).

Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability

Background The recent (re-)discovery of geography by economists through the lens of the new economic geography literature (Krugman, 1991) has had its counterpart in policy making with the promotion of the idea that economic geography is central to understanding and influencing actual economic development. The culmination of this was the publication of the World Development Report (WDR) 2009 by the World Bank in late 2008 (World Bank, 2008). In this report, aptly titled Reshaping Economic Geography, the World Bank basically makes two related claims. Firstly, and very much based on the new economic geography literature, understanding and shaping economic geography is crucial for economic development. So, after its earlier emphasis on development factors such as governance and institutions or human capital, in the WDR, the World Bank adds economic geography to the list of key drivers of economic development. Secondly, once the crucial role of economic geography for development is recognized, the WDR forcefully argues that this has far-reaching policy implications. In particular, in as far as geography is a hindrance to development, policies should be aimed at stimulating economic integration, especially between countries. Within countries, the WDR advises policy makers to focus less on, using their terminology, place-based policies and more on people-centered policies. The WDR’s policy recommendations have generated a considerable amount of debate as to whether governments should stop using placebased policies to tackle the problems of their more slowly growing areas. Central to the discussion has been the observation that the geography of economic development is uneven reflecting the economic advantages to nations and their populations of large agglomerations of economic activity. To try and stimulate the development of relatively lagging areas in a country outside these core agglomerations has been argued to be at best ineffective and at worst damaging to the economic growth of the nation as a whole. Thus, in his recent article on the blog www.voxeu.org, Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s Chief Economist for Europe and Central Asia and the Director of the WDR, argues:

Geography and development

Leishmaniasis affects 12 million people, but there are no vaccines. Immunological correlates of vaccine efficacy are unclear. Polarized Th1 vs Th2 responses in Leishmania major-infected mice suggested that a shift in balance from IL-4 to IFN-gamma was the key to vaccine success. Recently, a role for IL-10 and regulatory T cells in parasite persistence was demonstrated, prompting re-evaluation of vaccine-induced immunity. We compared DNA/modified vaccinia virus Ankara heterologous prime-boost with Leishmania homolog of the receptor for activated C kinase (LACK) or tryparedoxin peroxidase (TRYP). Both induced low IL-4 and high IFN-gamma prechallenge. Strikingly, high prechallenge CD4 T cell-derived IL-10 predicted vaccine failure using LACK, whereas low IL-10 predicted protection with TRYP. The ratio of IFN-gamma:IL-10 was thus a clear prechallenge indicator of vaccine success. Challenge infection caused further polarization to high IL-10/low IFN-gamma with LACK and low IL-10/high IFN-gamma with TRYP. Ex vivo quantitative RT-PCR and in vitro depletion and suppression experiments demonstrated that Ag-driven CD4+ CD25+ T regulatory 1-like cells were the primary source of IL-10 in LACK-vaccinated mice. Anti-IL-10R treatment in vivo demonstrated that IL-10 was functional in determining vaccine failure, rendering LACK protective in the presence of high IFN-gamma/low IL-5 responses.

Mark Roberts

Papers

What is Endogenous Growth Theory

Leveraging Urbanization in South Asia: Managing Spatial Transformation for Prosperity and Livability

Geography and development

IL-10 from Regulatory T Cells Determines Vaccine Efficacy in Murine Leishmania major Infection

Evaluating China's road to prosperity: A new economic geography approach☆☆☆