Computer simulation models can provide valuable insights for climate-related analysis and help streamline policy interventions for improved adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models are currently being expanded to include land-use change and energy markets so that the effects of various policy measures on agricultural production can be assessed. Agent-based modelling (ABM) or multi-agent systems (MAS) have been suggested as a complementary tool for assessing farmer responses to climate change in agriculture and how these are affected by policies. MAS applied to agricultural systems draw on techniques used for Recursive Farm Programming, but include models of all individual farms, their spatial interactions and the natural environment. In this article, we discuss the specific insights MAS provide for developing robust policies and land-use strategies in response to climate change. We show that MAS are well-suited for uncertainty analysis and can thereby complement existing simulation approaches to advance the understanding and implementation of effective climate-related policies in agriculture.

Agent-based Modelling of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Agriculture

https://pure.hw.ac.uk/ws/files/25194696/EJOR_ABS_ASC.pdf

Applications of agent-based modelling and simulation in the agri-food supply chains

Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.

Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany

In order to foster the competitiveness of the food supply chain, the European Commission is committed to promote and facilitate the restructuring and consolidation of the agricultural sector by encouraging the creation of voluntary agricultural producer organisations. To support the policy making process DG Agriculture and Rural Development has launched a large study, “Support for Farmers’ Cooperatives (SFC)”, that will provide insights on successful cooperatives and producer organisations as well as on effective support measures for these organisations. These insights can be used by farmers themselves, in setting up and strengthening their collective organisation, and by the European Commission in its effort to encourage the creation of agricultural producer organisations in the EU.

Within the framework of the SFC project this country report on the evolution of agricultural cooperatives in Sweden has been written. Data collection for this report has been done in the summer of 2011.

In addition to this report, the project has delivered 26 other country reports, 8 sector reports, 33 case studies, 6 EU synthesis reports, a report on cluster analysis, a study on the development of agricultural cooperatives in other OECD countries, and a final report.

The Country Report Sweden is one of the country reports that have been coordinated by Perttu Pyykkonen, Pellervo Economic Research PTT. The following figure shows the five regional coordinators of the “Support for Farmers’ Cooperatives” project.

/pdf/support-for-farmers-cooperatives-l5rj6qvmtt.pdf

Support for Farmers' Cooperatives

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has clearly shown how agricultural foods and e-commerce initiatives are critical for many organizations, regions, and countries worldwide. Despite this vital importance, prior IS research on the business value of IT has not paid enough attention to the potential specificities of the agribusinesses. This study examines the impact of e-commerce capability on business agility in agribusinesses. Using a sample of Chinese agriculture firms, we find that: 1) The e-commerce capability of agribusinesses enables two types of business agility: market capitalizing agility and operational adjustment agility, and 2) while environmental complexity positively moderates the effects of e-commerce capability on the market capitalizing agility and operational adjustment agility, environmental dynamism does not. This study contributes to the IS research on the business value of IT by providing an eloquent theoretical explanation and empirical evidence on how e-commerce capability help agricultural firms to thrive through complexity by enabling market capitalizing agility (strategic focus) and operational adjustment agility (operational focus).

How do agribusinesses thrive through complexity? The pivotal role of e-commerce capability and business agility

Significant transport costs and spatially distributed supply and processing create oligopsony power in agricultural markets. Price discrimination expressed in the form of partial or complete absorption of freight charges by processors is often observed in these environments, but we understand little about how these pricing decisions are made. Analytical approaches are often intractable. As an alternative, we propose a computational economics approach to analyze a general spatial competition model and study firms' choices of spatial pricing policy. Instead of the commonly presumed free‐on‐board pricing, we find that buyers choose price discrimination, either through uniform delivered pricing or through partial freight absorption.

Marten Graubner

Papers

Spatial Price Discrimination in Agricultural Product Procurement Markets: A Computational Economics Approach