Using the result that under the null hypothesis of no misspecification an asymptotically efficient estimator must have zero asymptotic covariance with its difference from a consistent but asymptotically inefficient estimator, specification tests are devised for a number of model specifications in econometrics. Local power is calculated for small departures from the null hypothesis. An instrumental variable test as well as tests for a time series cross section model and the simultaneous equation model are presented. An empirical model provides evidence that unobserved individual factors are present which are not orthogonal to the included right-hand-side variable in a common econometric specification of an individual wage equation.

/pdf/specification-tests-in-econometrics-9sg4xr62ii.pdf

Specification Tests in Econometrics

This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts. This paper takes Robert Solow seriously. In his classic 1956 article Solow proposed that we begin the study of economic growth by assuming a standard neoclassical production function with decreasing returns to capital. Taking the rates of saving and population growth as exogenous, he showed that these two vari- ables determine the steady-state level of income per capita. Be- cause saving and population growth rates vary across countries, different countries reach different steady states. Solow's model gives simple testable predictions about how these variables influ- ence the steady-state level of income. The higher the rate of saving, the richer the country. The higher the rate of population growth, the poorer the country. This paper argues that the predictions of the Solow model are, to a first approximation, consistent with the evidence. Examining recently available data for a large set of countries, we find that saving and population growth affect income in the directions that Solow predicted. Moreover, more than half of the cross-country variation in income per capita can be explained by these two variables alone. Yet all is not right for the Solow model. Although the model correctly predicts the directions of the effects of saving and

/pdf/a-contribution-to-the-empirics-of-economic-growth-27cl5gkqam.pdf

A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth

An intertemporal model for the capital market is deduced from the portfolio selection behavior by an arbitrary number of investors who aot so as to maximize the expected utility of lifetime consumption and who can trade continuously in time. Explicit demand functions for assets are derived, and it is shown that, unlike the one-period model, current demands are affected by the possibility of uncertain changes in future investment opportunities. After aggregating demands and requiring market clearing, the equilibrium relationships among expected returns are derived, and contrary to the classical capital asset pricing model, expected returns on risky assets may differ from the riskless rate even when they have no systematic or market risk. ONE OF THE MORE important developments in modern capital market theory is the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin mean-variance equilibrium model of exchange, commonly called the capital asset pricing model.2 Although the model has been the basis for more than one hundred academic papers and has had significant impact on the non-academic financial community,' it is still subject to theoretical and empirical criticism. Because the model assumes that investors choose their portfolios according to the Markowitz [21] mean-variance criterion, it is subject to all the theoretical objections to this criterion, of which there are many.4 It has also been criticized for the additional assumptions required,5 especially homogeneous expectations and the single-period nature of the model. The proponents of the model who agree with the theoretical objections, but who argue that the capital market operates "as if" these assumptions were satisfied, are themselves not beyond criticism. While the model predicts that the expected excess return from holding an asset is proportional to the covariance of its return with the market

http://jpkc.fudan.edu.cn/picture/article/296/c7/92/0e8c302443d092d8b77a256079cf/3a6483db-591a-42b5-b904-e2430eb26c6a.pdf

An intertemporal capital asset pricing model

Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.

/pdf/international-norm-dynamics-and-political-change-37ig9r9dlq.pdf

International Norm Dynamics and Political Change

Is public expenditure productive

How internationally mobile is the world's supply of capital? Does capital flow among industrial countries to equalize the yield to investors? Alternatively, does the saving that originates in a country remain 'to be invested there? Or does the truth lie somewhere between these two extremes? The answers to these questions are not only important for understanding the international capital market but are also critical for analyzing a wide range of issues including the nation's optimal rate of saving and the incidence of tax changes. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

/pdf/domestic-saving-and-international-capital-flows-3bqykct5pr.pdf

Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows

For the great majority of Americans, the most important form of household wealth is the anticipated social security retirement benefits. In 1971 the aggregate value of these annuities was approximately $2 trillion or some 60 percent of other household assets. This paper uses an extended life-cycle model to analyze the impact of social security on the individual's simultaneous decision about retirement and saving. Econometric evidence, using an estimated time series of "social security wealth," indicates that social security depresses personal saving by 30-50 percent. Implications of this research for the theory of consumption and for the level and distribution of income are discussed.

http://pubfin.nccu.edu.tw/faculty/jackwu/social%20security,%20induced%20retirement%20and%20aggregate%20capital%20accumulation.pdf

Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation

How internationally mobile is the world's supply of capital? Does capital flow among industrial countries to equalize the yield to investors? Alternatively, does the saving that originates in a country remain 'to be invested there? Or does the truth lie somewhere between these two extremes? The answers to these questions are not only important for understanding the international capital market but are also critical for analyzing a wide range of issues including the nation's optimal rate of saving and the incidence of tax changes.

/pdf/domestic-savings-and-international-capital-flows-3ygmkptv6i.pdf

Domestic savings and international capital flows

This paper uses a Treasury Department panel of more than 4,000 taxpayers to estimate the sensitivity of taxable income to changes in tax rates on the basis of a comparison of the tax returns of the same individual taxpayers before and after the 1986 tax reform. The analysis emphasizes that the response of taxable income involves much more than a change in the traditional measures of labor supply. The evidence shows an elasticity of taxable income with respect to the marginal net-of-tax rate that is at least one and could be substantially higher. The implications for recent tax rate changes are discussed.

/pdf/the-effect-of-marginal-tax-rates-on-taxable-income-a-panel-1n8vltnob5.pdf

The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act

The traditional method of analyzing the distorting effects of the income tax greatly underestimates its total deadweight loss as well as the incremental deadweight loss of an increase in income tax rates Deadweight losses are substantially greater than these conventional estimates because the traditional framework ignores the effect of higher income tax rates on tax avoidance through changes in the form of compensation (eg, employer paid health insurance) and through changes in the patterns of consumption (eg, owner occupied housing) The deadweight loss due to the increased use of exclusions and deductions is easily calculated Because the relative prices of leisure, excludable income, and deductible consumption are fixed, all of these can be treated as a single Hicksian composite good The compensated change in taxable income induced by changes in tax rates therefore provides all of the information that is needed to evaluate the deadweight loss of the income tax These estimates using TAXSIM calibrated to 1994 imply that the deadweight loss per dollar of revenue of using the income tax rather than a lump sum tax is more than twelve times as large as Harberger's classic estimate A marginal increase in tax revenue achieved by a proportional rise in all personal income tax rates involves a deadweight loss of nearly two dollars per incremental dollar of revenue Repealing the 1993 increase in tax rates for high income taxpayers would reduce the deadweight loss of the tax system by $24 billion while actually increasing tax revenue

Martin Feldstein

Papers

Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows

Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation

Domestic savings and international capital flows

The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Taxable Income: A Panel Study of the 1986 Tax Reform Act

Tax Avoidance and the Deadweight Loss of the Income Tax