Using the result that under the null hypothesis of no misspecification an asymptotically efficient estimator must have zero asymptotic covariance with its difference from a consistent but asymptotically inefficient estimator, specification tests are devised for a number of model specifications in econometrics. Local power is calculated for small departures from the null hypothesis. An instrumental variable test as well as tests for a time series cross section model and the simultaneous equation model are presented. An empirical model provides evidence that unobserved individual factors are present which are not orthogonal to the included right-hand-side variable in a common econometric specification of an individual wage equation.

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Specification Tests in Econometrics

This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts. This paper takes Robert Solow seriously. In his classic 1956 article Solow proposed that we begin the study of economic growth by assuming a standard neoclassical production function with decreasing returns to capital. Taking the rates of saving and population growth as exogenous, he showed that these two vari- ables determine the steady-state level of income per capita. Be- cause saving and population growth rates vary across countries, different countries reach different steady states. Solow's model gives simple testable predictions about how these variables influ- ence the steady-state level of income. The higher the rate of saving, the richer the country. The higher the rate of population growth, the poorer the country. This paper argues that the predictions of the Solow model are, to a first approximation, consistent with the evidence. Examining recently available data for a large set of countries, we find that saving and population growth affect income in the directions that Solow predicted. Moreover, more than half of the cross-country variation in income per capita can be explained by these two variables alone. Yet all is not right for the Solow model. Although the model correctly predicts the directions of the effects of saving and

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A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth

An intertemporal model for the capital market is deduced from the portfolio selection behavior by an arbitrary number of investors who aot so as to maximize the expected utility of lifetime consumption and who can trade continuously in time. Explicit demand functions for assets are derived, and it is shown that, unlike the one-period model, current demands are affected by the possibility of uncertain changes in future investment opportunities. After aggregating demands and requiring market clearing, the equilibrium relationships among expected returns are derived, and contrary to the classical capital asset pricing model, expected returns on risky assets may differ from the riskless rate even when they have no systematic or market risk. ONE OF THE MORE important developments in modern capital market theory is the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin mean-variance equilibrium model of exchange, commonly called the capital asset pricing model.2 Although the model has been the basis for more than one hundred academic papers and has had significant impact on the non-academic financial community,' it is still subject to theoretical and empirical criticism. Because the model assumes that investors choose their portfolios according to the Markowitz [21] mean-variance criterion, it is subject to all the theoretical objections to this criterion, of which there are many.4 It has also been criticized for the additional assumptions required,5 especially homogeneous expectations and the single-period nature of the model. The proponents of the model who agree with the theoretical objections, but who argue that the capital market operates "as if" these assumptions were satisfied, are themselves not beyond criticism. While the model predicts that the expected excess return from holding an asset is proportional to the covariance of its return with the market

http://jpkc.fudan.edu.cn/picture/article/296/c7/92/0e8c302443d092d8b77a256079cf/3a6483db-591a-42b5-b904-e2430eb26c6a.pdf

An intertemporal capital asset pricing model

Norms have never been absent from the study of international politics, but the sweeping “ideational turn” in the 1980s and 1990s brought them back as a central theoretical concern in the field. Much theorizing about norms has focused on how they create social structure, standards of appropriateness, and stability in international politics. Recent empirical research on norms, in contrast, has examined their role in creating political change, but change processes have been less well-theorized. We induce from this research a variety of theoretical arguments and testable hypotheses about the role of norms in political change. We argue that norms evolve in a three-stage “life cycle” of emergence, “norm cascades,” and internalization, and that each stage is governed by different motives, mechanisms, and behavioral logics. We also highlight the rational and strategic nature of many social construction processes and argue that theoretical progress will only be made by placing attention on the connections between norms and rationality rather than by opposing the two.

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International Norm Dynamics and Political Change

Is public expenditure productive

Analyses of intergovernmental aid emphasize the difference between matching grants and block grants. Since a block grant has only an income effect and no price effect, conventional theory predicts that block grants have a very small impact on the local government's expenditure on the favored activity. There is, however, a different type of block grant referred to in this paper as a "differential add-on grant." The purpose of the present paper is to measure the effectiveness of one such add-on grant, the federal government's program to increase local education spending on pupils from low-income families. The evidence implies that this aid is quite effective and therefore suggests that the traditional theory of intergovernmental aid should be extended to recognize this type of grant.

The Effect of a Differential Add-on Grant: Title I and Local Education Spending

I. An overview of the Medicare model, 4.—II. Supplementary medical insurance, 5.—III. Hospital admissions, 8.—IV. Extended care unit admissions, 11.—V. Hospital insurance benefits per hospital episode (HIBPHE), 12.—VI. Supplementary insurance benefits, 15.—VII. The reduced form of the Medicare system, 16.—VIII. Concluding remarks, 19.

An Econometric Model of the Medicare System

The paper shows how a new type of financial derivative--an accumulated pension collar--can be used to guarantee that an investment-based Social Security program provides at least the level of real retirement income projected under current Social Security rules. In effect, future retirees purchase a series of put options which guarantee that retirement benefits do not fall below a benchmark. They pay for this insurance by giving up the part of the variable retirement income which exceeds a certain level, effectively selling a series of call options. We price the accumulated pension collar via Monte Carlo simulations using the risk neutral valuation technique. Assuming that two thirds of the benchmark is provided by the traditional pay-as-you-go program, we find that by saving additional 2.5 percent of earnings retirees can obtain the benchmark. Raising the savings rate to 3 percent of earnings increases substantially the income that individuals can keep, raising it to 145 percent of the currently projected...

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Accumulated Pension Collars: A Market Approach to Reducing The Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform

The principle of horizontal equity is not a mere abstraction of academic theory but a fundamental belief that is widely held and strongly felt. Many otherwise desirable tax reforms may never be enacted because doing so would violate this injunction that government action should not treat equals unequally. It is important therefore to seek ways to eliminate or reduce such horizontal inequities. Complete compensation of those who would otherwise lose because of a tax change eliminates the problem of horizontal equity. When such compensation is feasible, as it generally would be for reforms affecting capital income, there is much to recommend it. Unfortunately, for a wide range of reforms involving the taxation of labor income, compensation is virtually impassible. In these circumstances, the choice of an optimal tax reform must balance efficiency gains from alternative reforms against the corresponding infractions of horizontal equity.

Compensation in tax reform

The stunning collapse of the thrift industry, the major stock slump of 1987, rising corporate debt, wild fluctuations of currency exchange rates, and a rash of defaults on developing country debts have revived fading memories of the Great Depression and fueled fears of an impending economic crisis. Under what conditions are financial markets vulnerable to disruption and what economic consequences ensue when these markets break down? In this accessible and thought-provoking volume, Benjamin M. Friedman investigates the origins of financial crisis in domestic capital markets, Paul Krugman examines the international origins and transmission of financial and economic crises, and Lawrence H. Summers explores the transition from financial crisis to economic collapse. In the introductory essay, Martin Feldstein reviews the major financial problems of the 1980s and discusses lessons to be learned from this experience. The book also contains provocative observations by senior academics and others who have played leading roles in business and government.

Martin Feldstein

Papers

The Effect of a Differential Add-on Grant: Title I and Local Education Spending

An Econometric Model of the Medicare System

Accumulated Pension Collars: A Market Approach to Reducing The Risk of Investment-Based Social Security Reform

Compensation in tax reform

The Risk of Economic Crisis