抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1（PfPMP1）与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用，在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员，通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

疟原虫var基因转换速率变化导致抗原变异[英]／Paul H, Robert P, Christodoulou Z, et al//Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

Background Global and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results. Methods and Findings Relatively simple models were used to project future health trends under three scenarios—baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic—based largely on projections of economic and social development, and using the historically observed relationships of these with cause-specific mortality rates. Data inputs have been updated to take account of the greater availability of death registration data and the latest available projections for HIV/AIDS, income, human capital, tobacco smoking, body mass index, and other inputs. In all three scenarios there is a dramatic shift in the distribution of deaths from younger to older ages and from communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes to noncommunicable disease causes. The risk of death for children younger than 5 y is projected to fall by nearly 50% in the baseline scenario between 2002 and 2030. The proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable disease is projected to rise from 59% in 2002 to 69% in 2030. Global HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to rise from 2.8 million in 2002 to 6.5 million in 2030 under the baseline scenario, which assumes coverage with antiretroviral drugs reaches 80% by 2012. Under the optimistic scenario, which also assumes increased prevention activity, HIV/AIDS deaths are projected to drop to 3.7 million in 2030. Total tobacco-attributable deaths are projected to rise from 5.4 million in 2005 to 6.4 million in 2015 and 8.3 million in 2030 under our baseline scenario. Tobacco is projected to kill 50% more people in 2015 than HIV/AIDS, and to be responsible for 10% of all deaths globally. The three leading causes of burden of disease in 2030 are projected to include HIV/AIDS, unipolar depressive disorders, and ischaemic heart disease in the baseline and pessimistic scenarios. Road traffic accidents are the fourth leading cause in the baseline scenario, and the third leading cause ahead of ischaemic heart disease in the optimistic scenario. Under the baseline scenario, HIV/AIDS becomes the leading cause of burden of disease in middle- and low-income countries by 2015. Conclusions These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, the continued spread of HIV/AIDS in many regions, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trends in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries.

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Projections of Global Mortality and Burden of Disease from 2002 to 2030

http://diposit.ub.edu/dspace/bitstream/2445/122776/1/gbd2016riskfactorscollaborators2017_3028.pdf

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems

Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

https://www.econ.umd.edu/sites/www.econ.umd.edu/files/pubs/jc1.pdf

A State-Preference Approach to the Precautionary Demand for Money

The Indian car market is the fastest growing in the world. With increased mobility has come increased foreign oil dependence, fuel consumption, and associated externalities. In response to this, the Indian government is contemplating fuel economy standards, but at the same time continues to subsidize diesel fuel. The result is a diesel discount of 30%, relative to petrol, and an increasing market share of diesel cars. We use a model of vehicle choice and kilometers driven to compare the welfare impacts of two possible fuel conservation policies: a tax on diesel fuel that would equalize diesel and petrol prices, and a diesel car tax. The latter is an alternative to taxing diesel fuel recently proposed by the Indian government. We find in 2006 that a diesel fuel tax that equalizes petrol and diesel prices reduces total fuel consumption by about 9 percent, at a deadweight loss of about 8 Rs. per liter of fuel saved. The tax reduces the market share of new diesel vehicles by 4.6 percentage points. A diesel car tax of 25% would achieve the same reduction in market share; however, it would reduce total fuel consumption by only 1.5 percent, at a deadweight loss of about 30 Rs. per liter saved. A smaller diesel fuel tax, sufficient to yield the same total fuel conservation as the diesel car tax, actually results in a net welfare gain: The increase in petrol fuel revenues as buyers switch from diesel to petrol cars exceeds the deadweight loss of the diesel tax.

The Welfare Effect of Fuel Conservation Policies in the Indian Car Market

The authors compare the welfare effects of in situ slum upgrading programs with programs that provide slum dwellers with better housing in a new location. Evaluating the welfare effects of slum upgrading and resettlement programs requires estimating models of residential location choice, in which households trade off commuting costs against the cost and attributes of the housing they consume, including neighborhood attributes. The authors accomplish this using data for 5,000 households in Mumbai, a city in which 40 percent of the population live in slums. The precise welfare effects of resettlement programs depend on assumptions made about the ease with which workers can change jobs and also on the ethnic characteristics of neighborhoods in which new housing is located. To illustrate this point the authors consider a realistic slum upgrading program that could be offered to residents in their sample living in east Mumbai. They summarize the effects of job opportunities and neighborhood composition on welfare by mapping how compensating variation for the program changes depending on where in Mumbai improved housing is located. If program beneficiaries continue working in their original job, the set of welfare-enhancing locations for the upgrading program is small. The set increases greatly if it is assumed that workers can change jobs. The benefits of this program are contrasted with the benefits of in situ housing improvements.

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The welfare effects of slum improvement programs : the case of Mumbai

Amenities that vary across cities are typically valued using either a hedonic model, in which amenities are capitalized into wages and housing prices, or a discrete model of household location choice In this paper, we use the 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) to value climate amenities using both methods We compare estimates of marginal willingness to pay (MWTP), allowing preferences for climate amenities to vary by location We find that mean MWTP for warmer winters is about twice as large using the discrete choice approach as with the hedonic approach; mean MWTP for cooler summers is approximately the same The two approaches differ, however, in their estimates of taste sorting The discrete choice model implies that households with the highest MWTP for warmer winters locate in cities with the mildest winters, while the hedonic model does not Differences in estimates are due to primarily to two factors: (1) the discrete choice model incorporates the psychological costs of moving from one’s birthplace, which the hedonic models do not; (2) the discrete choice model uses information on market shares (ie, population) in estimating parameters, which the hedonic model does not

/pdf/do-discrete-choice-approaches-to-valuing-urban-amenities-1u2rdhwiho.pdf

Do Discrete Choice Approaches to Valuing Urban Amenities Yield Different Results Than Hedonic Models

We examine the impact of electricity sector restructuring on the operating efficiency of coal-fired power plants in India Between 1995 and 2009, 85 percent of coal-based generation capacity owned by state governments was unbundled from vertically integrated State Electricity Boards into state generating companies We find that generating units in states that unbundled before the Electricity Act of 2003 experienced reductions in forced outages of about 25% and improvements in availability of about 10%, with the largest results occurring 3-5 years after restructuring We find no evidence of improvements in thermal efficiency at state-owned power plants due to reform

Maureen L. Cropper

Papers

A State-Preference Approach to the Precautionary Demand for Money

The Welfare Effect of Fuel Conservation Policies in the Indian Car Market

The welfare effects of slum improvement programs : the case of Mumbai

Do Discrete Choice Approaches to Valuing Urban Amenities Yield Different Results Than Hedonic Models

Estimating the Impact of Restructuring on Electricity Generation Efficiency: The Case of the Indian Thermal Power Sector