Over the last two decades, macroecology – the analysis of large-scale, multi-species ecological patterns and processes – has established itself as a major line of biological research. Analyses of statistical links between environmental variables and biotic responses have long and successfully been employed as a main approach, but new developments are due to be utilized. Scanning the horizon of macroecology, we identifi ed four challenges that will probably play a major role in the future. We support our claims by examples and bibliographic analyses. 1) Integrating the past into macroecological analyses, e.g. by using paleontological or phylogenetic information or by applying methods from historical biogeography, will sharpen our understanding of the underlying reasons for contemporary patterns. 2) Explicit consideration of the local processes that lead to the observed larger-scale patterns is necessary to understand the fi ne-grain variability found in nature, and will enable better prediction of future patterns (e.g. under environmental change conditions). 3) Macroecology is dependent on large-scale, high quality data from a broad spectrum of taxa and regions. More available data sources need to be tapped and new, small-grain large-extent data need to be collected. 4) Although macroecology already lead to mainstreaming cuttingedge statistical analysis techniques, we fi nd that more sophisticated methods are needed to account for the biases inherent to sampling at large scale. Bayesian methods may be particularly suitable to address these challenges. To continue the vigorous development of the macroecological research agenda, it is time to address these challenges and to avoid becoming too complacent with current achievements.

/pdf/what-s-on-the-horizon-for-macroecology-20rd3vwf9p.pdf

What ' s on the horizon for macroecology?

Climate change is expected to drive species ranges towards the poles and to have a strong influence on species distributions. In this study, we focused on diadromous species that are of economical and ecological importance in the whole of Europe. We investigated the potential distribution of all diadromous fish regularly encountered in Europe, North Africa and the Middle East (28 species) under conditions predicted for twenty-first century climate change. To do so, we investigated the 1900 distribution of each species in 196 basins spread across all of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. Four levels were used to semiquantitatively describe the abundance of species, that is missing, rare, common and abundant. We then selected five variables describing the prevailing climate in the basins, the physical nature of the basins and reflecting historical events known to have affected freshwater fish distribution. Logistic regressions with a four-level ordinal response variable were used to develop species-specific models. These predictive models related the observed distribution of these species in 1900 to the most explanatory combination of variables. Finally, we selected the A2 SRES scenario and the HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model version 3) global climate model (GCM) to obtain climate variables (temperature and precipitation) at the end of this century. We used these 2100 variables in our models and obtained maps of climatically suitable and unsuitable basins, percentages of contraction or expansion for each species. Twenty-two models were successfully built, that is there were five species for which no model could be established because their distribution range was too narrow and the Acipenser sturio model failed during calibration. All the models selected temperature or/and precipitation as explanatory variables. Responses to climate change were species-specific but could be classified into three categories: little or no change in the distribution (five species), expansion of the distribution range (three species gaining suitable basins mainly northward) and contraction of the distribution (14 species losing suitable basins). Shifting ranges were in accordance with those found in other studies and underlined the high sensitivity of diadromous fish to modifications in their environment.

Impact of twenty-first century climate change on diadromous fish spread over Europe, North Africa and the Middle East

Animals living in the Southern Ocean have evolved in a singular environment. It shares many of its attributes with the high Arctic, namely low, stable temperatures, the pervading effect of ice in its many forms and extreme seasonality of light and phytobiont productivity. Antarctica is, however, the most isolated continent on Earth and is the only one that lacks a continental shelf connection with another continent. This isolation, along with the many millions of years that these conditions have existed, has produced a fauna that is both diverse, with around 17,000 marine invertebrate species living there, and has the highest proportions of endemic species of any continent. The reasons for this are discussed. The isolation, history and unusual environmental conditions have resulted in the fauna producing a range and scale of adaptations to low temperature and seasonality that are unique. The best known such adaptations include channichthyid icefish that lack haemoglobin and transport oxygen around their bodies only in solution, or the absence, in some species, of what was only 20 years ago termed the universal heat shock response. Other adaptations include large size in some groups, a tendency to produce larger eggs than species at lower latitudes and very long gametogenic cycles, with egg development (vitellogenesis) taking 18–24 months in some species. The rates at which some cellular and physiological processes are conducted appear adapted to, or at least partially compensated for, low temperature such as microtubule assembly in cells, whereas other processes such as locomotion and metabolic rate are not compensated, and whole-animal growth, embryonic development, and limb regeneration in echinoderms proceed at rates even slower than would be predicted by the normal rules governing the effect of temperature on biological processes. This review describes the current state of knowledge on the biodiversity of the Southern Ocean fauna and on the majority of known ecophysiological adaptations of cold-blooded marine species to Antarctic conditions. It further evaluates the impacts these adaptations have on capacities to resist, or respond to change in the environment, where resistance to raised temperatures seems poor, whereas exposure to acidified conditions to end-century levels has comparatively little impact.

/pdf/antarctic-marine-biodiversity-adaptations-environments-and-4irh9r6wlu.pdf

Antarctic Marine Biodiversity: Adaptations, Environments and Responses to Change

Diadromous fish conservation plans need to consider global warming issues: An approach using biogeographical models

Disruption to migration is a growing problem for conservation and restoration of animal populations. Anthropogenic barriers along migration paths can delay or prolong migrations, which may result in a mismatch with migration-timing adaptations. To understand the interaction of dams (as barriers along a migration path), seasonally changing environmental conditions, timing of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) downstream migration, and ultimate migration success, we used 10 years of river temperature and discharge data as a template upon which we simulated downstream movement of salmon. Atlantic salmon is a cool-water species whose downstream migrating smolts must complete migration before river temperatures become too warm. We found that dams had a local effect on survival as well as a survival effect that was spatially and temporally removed from the encounter with the dam. While smolts are delayed by dams, temperatures downstream can reach lethal or near-lethal temperatures; as a result, the match between com...

Migration delays caused by anthropogenic barriers: modeling dams, temperature, and success of migrating salmon smolts

During summer 2006, the first specimens of the oriental shrimp Palaemon macrodactylus Rathbun, 1902 were identified in the Gironde Estuary (France). These specimens, which included ovigerous females, are confirmed present throughout a large part of the estuary, in large numbers compared to the local resident shrimp Palaemon longirostris Milne Edwards, 1837. Native to Asia, P. macrodactylus was first introduced in California (USA) in the 1950s, before being detected recently within several European estuaries, e.g. the Guadalquivir Estuary (Spain) and the Orwell Estuary (England). According to these records, P. macrodactylus appears to be a strong invader, able to colonise a wide geographical range.

/pdf/first-record-of-the-invasive-oriental-shrimp-palaemon-ohjs6at93c.pdf

First record of the invasive oriental shrimp Palaemon macrodactylus Rathbun, 1902 in France (Gironde Estuary)

– The aim of this study was to analyse the distribution of 14 diadromous fish at the beginning of the 20th century in western Europe. This study was conducted on a set of 41 water basins. Five environmental variables were selected and we used generalised additive models for explaining the presence–absence of species. The richest basins were located in the centre of the study area. Six main assemblage types were identified along a latitudinal gradient; they were constituted of a common species basis but differed by the absence or presence of other species. The 10 single species models produced have moderate to very good discrimination level and they can correctly predict both absence and presence. Temperature is included in all but one model, response curves vary according to the species; surface area is included in six models.

Distribution and richness of diadromous fish assemblages in Western Europe: large-scale explanatory factors

Palaemon macrodactylus, an exotic shrimp native to the northwest Pacific Ocean, has been recorded in many estuaries along the Atlantic coast of Europe since the late 1990’s. In this study, a regular monthly survey, held since 1992 of the middle section of the Gironde estuary, revealed this species’ rapid and full colonization of the system since its appearance in samples during summer 1998. In the Gironde, the population of P. macrodactylus is self-sustaining and the species is now established there. Our study highlights two important elements that might explain its successful colonization: its ability to quickly invade a niche under-exploited by the similar native species and its greater reproductive output. The species’spatio-temporal distribution in relation to environmental variables was studied and compared with that of the native species P. longirostris. The exotic species was shown to mainly inhabit the polyhaline and mesohaline section of the estuary, which are sections generally under-exploited by females of the native species. Furthermore, fecundity analysis and larval abundance survey results revealed a higher potential fecundity and a greater proportion of larvae and juvenile stages for P. macrodactylus in the natural environment.

/pdf/presence-of-palaemon-macrodactylus-in-a-european-estuary-pjacasc7k8.pdf

Presence of Palaemon macrodactylus in a European estuary: evidence for a successful invasion of the Gironde (SW France)

Our study details key parameters of the reproductive biology of the shrimp Palaemon longirostris, e.g., spatio-temporal variation of the sex-ratio, migration pattern, breeding period, fecundity, size at the onset of maturity, and egg volume. While P. longirostris population was very little studied in its distribution area, our fist aim was to complete that lack of knowledge and to provide a basis for understanding its population dynamic. Finally, our results were also compared with those reported from different studies on this species within Europe, in order to test the reported latitudinal cline of reproductive parameters in decapods. During a one-year survey, P. longirostris have been collected monthly across a large part of the Gironde estuary (France). Biometric measurements and determination of sex and maturation stages were carried out on preserved subsamples. Eggs were counted and measured for ovigerous females. In the Gironde, the breeding period was restricted from March to July, and rel...

/pdf/reproductive-biology-of-palaemon-longirostris-decapoda-3tgiz7qpgd.pdf

Reproductive Biology of Palaemon longirostris (Decapoda: Palaemonidae) from Gironde Estuary (France), with a Comparison with Other European Populations

Mélanie Béguer

Papers

Diadromous fish conservation plans need to consider global warming issues: An approach using biogeographical models

First record of the invasive oriental shrimp Palaemon macrodactylus Rathbun, 1902 in France (Gironde Estuary)

Distribution and richness of diadromous fish assemblages in Western Europe: large-scale explanatory factors

Presence of Palaemon macrodactylus in a European estuary: evidence for a successful invasion of the Gironde (SW France)

Reproductive Biology of Palaemon longirostris (Decapoda: Palaemonidae) from Gironde Estuary (France), with a Comparison with Other European Populations