计量经济分析 = Econometric analysis

Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita Le cause e le responsabilita dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilita” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici.

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Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

Regression Analysis of Count Data: Preface

Examining the spatiotemporal dynamics of meteorological variables in the context of changing climate, particularly in countries where rainfed agriculture is predominant, is vital to assess climate-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. To that end, trend analysis has been employed to inspect the change of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia using gridded monthly precipitation data obtained from Global Precipitation and Climate Centre (GPCC V7) and temperature data from Climate Research Unit (CRU TS 3.23) with 0.5° by 0.5° resolution from 1901 to 2014. Data have been analyzed using coefficient of variation, anomaly index, precipitation concentration index and Palmer drought severity index. Furthermore, Mann-Kendall test was used to detect the time series trend. The result revealed intra- and inter-annual variability of rainfall while Palmer drought severity index value proved the increasing trend of the number of drought years. Annual, belg and kiremt rainfall have decreased with a rate of 15.03, 1.93 and 13.12 mm per decade respectively. The declining trend for annual and kiremt rainfall was found to be statistically significant while that of belg was not significant. The rate of change of temperature was found to be 0.046, 0.067 and 0.026  °C per decade for mean, minimum and maximum respectively. The Mann-Kendall trend analysis test result revealed increasing trend for mean and minimum average temperatures through time significantly while the trend for maximum temperature exhibited a non-significant increasing trend. We recommend strategies designed in the agricultural sector have to take the declining and erratic nature of rainfall and increasing trend of temperature into consideration.

Variability and time series trend analysis of rainfall and temperature in northcentral Ethiopia: A case study in Woleka sub-basin

"Ethiopia's agricultural sector, which is dominated by smallscale, mixed crop, and livestock farming, is the mainstay of the country's economy. It constitutes more than half the nation's gross domestic product (GDP), generates more than 85 percent of the foreign exchange earnings, and employs about 80 percent of the population. Ethiopia's dependence on agriculture makes the country particularly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change on crop and livestock production. This brief is based on a paper that analyzes the vulnerability of Ethiopian farmers to climate change by creating a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across regions. A regional vulnerability index can assist in identifying the areas of Ethiopia that are most vulnerable to climate change and guide policymakers in determining where investments in adaptation may be most effective in reducing the future adverse effects of climate change." from text

Measuring Ethiopian farmers' vulnerability to climate change across regional states [in Amharic]:

This article analyzes the vulnerability and resilience levels of farm households in North Shewa, Ethiopia, using a survey of 452 households. Agro ecological based classification was done to analyze vulnerability to climate change induced shocks. Integrated vulnerability analysis approach was employed to develop indexes for socioeconomic and biophysical indicators. The indicators have been classified into adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity to climate change impact. Then Principal Component Analysis was used to compute vulnerability index of each agro ecological zone. The result shows that farmers living in the highland areas were very much vulnerable to natural shocks compared to those living in the lowland area. In order to identify and analyse the determinants of resilience to climate change impacts, ordered probit model was used. Households were classified into three categories based on the time they take to bounce back after natural shocks. The model outputs indicate that farmers with better investment on natural resource management, access to market, better social network, access to credit, preparedness, saving liquid assets, access to irrigation and better level of education exhibited greater level of resilience during and after climate change induced shocks.

https://file.scirp.org/pdf/AS20120600007_52305002.pdf

Analysis of vulnerability and resilience to climate change induced shocks in North Shewa, Ethiopia

Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on agricultural activities in the developing countries has been increasing. Higher temperature and decreasing precipitation levels caused by climate change depresses crop yields. This is particularly true in low-income countries where adaptive capacities are perceived to be low. The vulnerability of poor countries could be due to weak institutional capacity, limited engagement in environmental and adaptation issues, and lack of validation of local knowledge. A better understanding of the local dimensions of vulnerability is therefore essential to develop appropriate adaptation measures that can mitigate these adverse consequences. The main aim of this study was to identify the determinants of farmer’s choice of adaptation strategies to climate change in the Babilie district of Eastern Ethiopia. Both primary and secondary data sources were used for this study. Primary data were collected from a randomly selected 160 sample households interviewed through a semi-structured questionnaire, key informants interview and focus group discussion. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was estimated to analyze the factors influencing households’ choice of adaptation strategies to climate change. The result from the multinomial logit analysis showed that sex of the household head, age of the household head and education of the household head, family size, livestock ownership, household farm income, non/off farm income, access to credit, distance to the market center, access to farmer-to-farmer extension, agro ecological zones, access to climate information, and extension contact have a significant impact on climate change adaptation strategies. Therefore, future policy should focus on awareness creation on climate change through different sources such as mass media and extension, encouraging informal social net-works, facilitating the availability of credit, enhancing research on use of new crop varieties that are more suited to drier conditions and different agro ecological zones. Key words : Climate change, Babilie district of Eastern Ethiopia, Adaptation to climate change, Multinomial logit

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Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers: The Case of Babilie District, East Harerghe Zone of Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia

This study was conducted to analyse the determinants of perception and adaptation to climate change. The study also examines the coping mechanisms followed by farmers in the aftermath of climate change induced shocks using a survey of 452 households in north Shewa Zone. A two steps process of Heckman model was used to analyze adaptation to climate change, which initially requires farmer’s perception that climate is changing and then responding to changes through adaptation. The analyses of determinants of perception to climate change revealed that number of factors ranging from socioeconomic to natural have contributed to the increase in perception level of farmers to climate change. Moreover, the determinants of adaptation conditioned on perception have shown that several programmatically important variables have affected the adaptation level of farmers to climate change. The result indicates that perception to climate change was the prime determinant for adaptation. on the other hand, farmers follow different coping mechanisms; where some of the coping mechanisms negatively affect the future development of the community and immediate recovery from climate change impacts. Thus carefully targeted programming should be made to enable farmers take those positive coping mechanisms and exercise those strategies that can boost their adaptation to the changing climate condition. In conclusion, awareness creation on climate change, facilitation of credit availability, investment on non-farm engagement, improve good mix of livestock holding, encourage adult education, dissemination of indigenous early warning information, diversifying crops to perennial trees, and improved frequencies of agricultural extension contact be made so as to ensure farmers well perceive climate change and then adapt to the changes.

Econometric analysis of local level perception, adaptation and coping strategies to climate change induced shocks in North Shewa, Ethiopia

Despite the fact that erosion undermines productivity in the Ethiopian highlands, adoption of fertility enhancing techniques remained very minimal. The objectives of this study is to examine factors affecting adoption of fertilize and manure use and their interrelationships using plot and household level data collected from 211 farm households. A two-stage probit model results revealed a negative reciprocal relationship between fertilizer use and manure applications, basically because of the difference in additional resource requirements for application of the two inputs. Whereas prices of chemical fertilizers are very high in the study area, manure is labor-intensive in its application. This implies that the ability to afford high fertilizer prices decreases the probability to apply manure; and endowment with adequate labor input decreases the probability to opt for fertilizer. The study also identified different impediments to adoption of fertilizer use and manure applications and important implications drawn from the results are discussed.

Determinants of Manure and Fertilizer Applications in Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia

Food insecurity is an overriding problem of most developing countries like Ethiopia, which requires empirical evidence pertinent to food security policy formulation and implementation. This paper investigates food security situation of households by surveying 260 farm households randomly and proportionately sampled from the major farming systems in Ethiopia. Households’ daily calorie availability and dietary diversity were measured to capture the diet quantity and quality dimensions of food security of households. A seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model results of the two measures suggested that the mean daily calorie intake per adult equivalent and dietary diversity level of households were about 1871 kcal and 6.8, respectively, with significant differences in farming systems and household idiosyncratic characteristics. The univariate probit model results show that the likelihood of households to be food security was 42.3%, while their probability to have semi-diversified diet was 37.2%. However, food security status and dietary diversity status were weakly interdependent and their determinant factors were significantly different. The major contribution of this paper is that it employs econometric estimation of dietary diversity scores and status and measures their interactions with diet quantity scales and food security status at household level.

	 

	Key words: Food security, dietary diversity, seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, bivariate probit.

Mengistu Ketema

Papers

Analysis of vulnerability and resilience to climate change induced shocks in North Shewa, Ethiopia

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies of Smallholder Farmers: The Case of Babilie District, East Harerghe Zone of Oromia Regional State of Ethiopia

Econometric analysis of local level perception, adaptation and coping strategies to climate change induced shocks in North Shewa, Ethiopia

Determinants of Manure and Fertilizer Applications in Eastern Highlands of Ethiopia

Measuring diet quantity and quality dimensions of food security in rural Ethiopia