Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally varound the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.

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"Why Should I Trust You?": Explaining the Predictions of Any Classifier

Federated Learning is a machine learning setting where the goal is to train a high-quality centralized model while training data remains distributed over a large number of clients each with unreliable and relatively slow network connections. We consider learning algorithms for this setting where on each round, each client independently computes an update to the current model based on its local data, and communicates this update to a central server, where the client-side updates are aggregated to compute a new global model. The typical clients in this setting are mobile phones, and communication efficiency is of the utmost importance. 
In this paper, we propose two ways to reduce the uplink communication costs: structured updates, where we directly learn an update from a restricted space parametrized using a smaller number of variables, e.g. either low-rank or a random mask; and sketched updates, where we learn a full model update and then compress it using a combination of quantization, random rotations, and subsampling before sending it to the server. Experiments on both convolutional and recurrent networks show that the proposed methods can reduce the communication cost by two orders of magnitude.

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Federated Learning: Strategies for Improving Communication Efficiency

As machine learning systems become ubiquitous, there has been a surge of interest in interpretable machine learning: systems that provide explanation for their outputs. These explanations are often used to qualitatively assess other criteria such as safety or non-discrimination. However, despite the interest in interpretability, there is very little consensus on what interpretable machine learning is and how it should be measured. In this position paper, we first define interpretability and describe when interpretability is needed (and when it is not). Next, we suggest a taxonomy for rigorous evaluation and expose open questions towards a more rigorous science of interpretable machine learning.

Towards A Rigorous Science of Interpretable Machine Learning

Learning sophisticated feature interactions behind user behaviors is critical in maximizing CTR for recommender systems. Despite great progress, existing methods seem to have a strong bias towards low- or high-order interactions, or require expertise feature engineering. In this paper, we show that it is possible to derive an end-to-end learning model that emphasizes both low- and high-order feature interactions. The proposed model, DeepFM, combines the power of factorization machines for recommendation and deep learning for feature learning in a new neural network architecture. Compared to the latest Wide & Deep model from Google, DeepFM has a shared input to its "wide" and "deep" parts, with no need of feature engineering besides raw features. Comprehensive experiments are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of DeepFM over the existing models for CTR prediction, on both benchmark data and commercial data.

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DeepFM: a factorization-machine based neural network for CTR prediction

Rapid progress in machine learning and artificial intelligence (AI) has brought increasing attention to the potential impacts of AI technologies on society. In this paper we discuss one such potential impact: the problem of accidents in machine learning systems, defined as unintended and harmful behavior that may emerge from poor design of real-world AI systems. We present a list of five practical research problems related to accident risk, categorized according to whether the problem originates from having the wrong objective function ("avoiding side effects" and "avoiding reward hacking"), an objective function that is too expensive to evaluate frequently ("scalable supervision"), or undesirable behavior during the learning process ("safe exploration" and "distributional shift"). We review previous work in these areas as well as suggesting research directions with a focus on relevance to cutting-edge AI systems. Finally, we consider the high-level question of how to think most productively about the safety of forward-looking applications of AI.

Concrete Problems in AI Safety

Predicting ad click-through rates (CTR) is a massive-scale learning problem that is central to the multi-billion dollar online advertising industry. We present a selection of case studies and topics drawn from recent experiments in the setting of a deployed CTR prediction system. These include improvements in the context of traditional supervised learning based on an FTRL-Proximal online learning algorithm (which has excellent sparsity and convergence properties) and the use of per-coordinate learning rates. We also explore some of the challenges that arise in a real-world system that may appear at first to be outside the domain of traditional machine learning research. These include useful tricks for memory savings, methods for assessing and visualizing performance, practical methods for providing confidence estimates for predicted probabilities, calibration methods, and methods for automated management of features. Finally, we also detail several directions that did not turn out to be beneficial for us, despite promising results elsewhere in the literature. The goal of this paper is to highlight the close relationship between theoretical advances and practical engineering in this industrial setting, and to show the depth of challenges that appear when applying traditional machine learning methods in a complex dynamic system.

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Ad click prediction: a view from the trenches

Machine learning offers a fantastically powerful toolkit for building useful complex prediction systems quickly. This paper argues it is dangerous to think of these quick wins as coming for free. Using the software engineering framework of technical debt, we find it is common to incur massive ongoing maintenance costs in real-world ML systems. We explore several ML-specific risk factors to account for in system design. These include boundary erosion, entanglement, hidden feedback loops, undeclared consumers, data dependencies, configuration issues, changes in the external world, and a variety of system-level anti-patterns.

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Hidden technical debt in Machine learning systems

Machine learning offers a fantastically powerful toolkit for building complex systems quickly. This paper argues that it is dangerous to think of these quick wins as coming for free. Using the framework of technical debt, we note that it is remarkably easy to incur massive ongoing maintenance costs at the system level when applying machine learning. The goal of this paper is highlight several machine learning specific risk factors and design patterns to be avoided or refactored where possible. These include boundary erosion, entanglement, hidden feedback loops, undeclared consumers, data dependencies, changes in the external world, and a variety of system-level anti-patterns. 1 Machine Learning and Complex Systems Real world software engineers are often faced with the challenge of moving quickly to ship new products or services, which can lead to a dilemma between speed of execution and quality of engineering. The concept of technical debt was first introduced by Ward Cunningham in 1992 as a way to help quantify the cost of such decisions. Like incurring fiscal debt, there are often sound strategic reasons to take on technical debt. Not all debt is necessarily bad, but technical debt does tend to compound. Deferring the work to pay it off results in increasing costs, system brittleness, and reduced rates of innovation. Traditional methods of paying off technical debt include refactoring, increasing coverage of unit tests, deleting dead code, reducing dependencies, tightening APIs, and improving documentation [4]. The goal of these activities is not to add new functionality, but to make it easier to add future improvements, be cheaper to maintain, and reduce the likelihood of bugs. One of the basic arguments in this paper is that machine learning packages have all the basic code complexity issues as normal code, but also have a larger system-level complexity that can create hidden debt. Thus, refactoring these libraries, adding better unit tests, and associated activity is time well spent but does not necessarily address debt at a systems level. In this paper, we focus on the system-level interaction between machine learning code and larger systems as an area where hidden technical debt may rapidly accumulate. At a system-level, a machine learning model may subtly erode abstraction boundaries. It may be tempting to re-use input signals in ways that create unintended tight coupling of otherwise disjoint systems. Machine learning packages may often be treated as black boxes, resulting in large masses of “glue code” or calibration layers that can lock in assumptions. Changes in the external world may make models or input signals change behavior in unintended ways, ratcheting up maintenance cost and the burden of any debt. Even monitoring that the system as a whole is operating as intended may be difficult without careful design.

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Machine Learning: The High Interest Credit Card of Technical Debt

We reduce the memory footprint of popular large-scale online learning methods by projecting our weight vector onto a coarse discrete set using randomized rounding. Compared to standard 32-bit float encodings, this reduces RAM usage by more than 50% during training and by up to 95% when making predictions from a fixed model, with almost no loss in accuracy. We also show that randomized counting can be used to implement percoordinate learning rates, improving model quality with little additional RAM. We prove these memory-saving methods achieve regret guarantees similar to their exact variants. Empirical evaluation confirms excellent performance, dominating standard approaches across memory versus accuracy tradeoffs.

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Large-Scale Learning with Less RAM via Randomization

We reduce the memory footprint of popular large-scale online learning methods by projecting our weight vector onto a coarse discrete set using randomized rounding. Compared to standard 32-bit float encodings, this reduces RAM usage by more than 50% during training and by up to 95% when making predictions from a fixed model, with almost no loss in accuracy. We also show that randomized counting can be used to implement per-coordinate learning rates, improving model quality with little additional RAM. We prove these memory-saving methods achieve regret guarantees similar to their exact variants. Empirical evaluation confirms excellent performance, dominating standard approaches across memory versus accuracy tradeoffs.

Michael Young

Papers

Ad click prediction: a view from the trenches

Hidden technical debt in Machine learning systems

Machine Learning: The High Interest Credit Card of Technical Debt

Large-Scale Learning with Less RAM via Randomization

Large-Scale Learning with Less RAM via Randomization