In this paper we investigate the probability of failure of a cohesive slope using both simple and more advanced probabilistic analysis tools. The influence of local averaging on the probability of failure of a test problem is thoroughly investigated. In the simple approach, classical slope stability analysis techniques are used, and the shear strength is treated as a single random variable. The advanced method, called the random finite-element method (RFEM), uses elastoplasticity combined with random field theory. The RFEM method is shown to offer many advantages over traditional probabilistic slope stability techniques, because it enables slope failure to develop naturally by “seeking out” the most critical mechanism. Of particular importance in this work is the conclusion that simplified probabilistic analysis, in which spatial variability is ignored by assuming perfect correlation, can lead to unconservative estimates of the probability of failure. This contradicts the findings of other investigators w...

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Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements

[1] Methane gas hydrates, crystalline inclusion compounds formed from methane and water, are found in marine continental margin and permafrost sediments worldwide. This article reviews the current understanding of phenomena involved in gas hydrate formation and the physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments. Formation phenomena include pore-scale habit, solubility, spatial variability, and host sediment aggregate properties. Physical properties include thermal properties, permeability, electrical conductivity and permittivity, small-strain elastic P and S wave velocities, shear strength, and volume changes resulting from hydrate dissociation. The magnitudes and interdependencies of these properties are critically important for predicting and quantifying macroscale responses of hydrate-bearing sediments to changes in mechanical, thermal, or chemical boundary conditions. These predictions are vital for mitigating borehole, local, and regional slope stability hazards; optimizing recovery techniques for extracting methane from hydrate-bearing sediments or sequestering carbon dioxide in gas hydrate; and evaluating the role of gas hydrate in the global carbon cycle.

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Physical properties of hydrate-bearing sediments

The impact of uncertainty on the reliability of slope design and performance assessment is often significant. Conventional slope practice based on the factor of safety cannot explicitly address unc...

Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice

Observational procedure of settlement prediction

The paper investigates the probability of failure of slopes using both traditional and more advanced probabilistic analysis tools. The advanced method, called the random finite-element method, uses elastoplasticity in a finite-element model combined with random field theory in a Monte-Carlo framework. The traditional method, called the first-order reliability method, computes a reliability index which is the shortest distance (in units of directional equivalent standard deviations) from the equivalent mean-value point to the limit state surface and estimates the probability of failure from the reliability index. Numerical results show that simplified probabilistic analyses in which spatial variability of soil properties is not properly accounted for, can lead to unconservative estimates of the probability of failure if the coefficient of variation of the shear strength parameters exceeds a critical value. The influences of slope inclination, factor of safety (based on mean strength values), and cross correlation between strength parameters on this critical value have been investigated by parametric studies in this paper. The results indicate when probabilistic approaches, which do not model spatial variation, may lead to unconservative estimates of slope failure probability and when more advanced probabilistic methods are warranted.

Minoru Matsuo

Papers

Probabilistic approach to design of embankments

Experimental study on earth pressure of retaining wall by field tests

Diagram for construction control of embankment on soft ground

Probability models of undrained strength of marine clay layer

A statistical study on a conventional "safety factor method"