▶ Addresses a wide range of timely environment, economic and energy topics ▶ A forum to review, analyze and stimulate the development, testing and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies at regional, national and global scales ▶ Contributes to real-time policy analysis and development as national and international policies and agreements are discussed and promulgated ▶ 94% of authors who answered a survey reported that they would definitely publish or probably publish in the journal again

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

In this Chapter, we imagine a decision maker (or a group of experts) trying to establish or examine fair procedures to combine opinions about alternatives related to different points of view.

Multiple criteria decision making

This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset of 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations with more than 30 years of record over the period from 1900 to 2009. Two complementary statistical techniques were adopted to evaluate the possible nonstationary behavior of these precipitation data. The first was a Mann‐Kendall nonparametric trend test, and it was used to evaluate the existence of monotonic trends. The second was a nonstationary generalized extreme value analysis, and it was used to determine the strength of association between the precipitation extremes and globally averaged near-surface temperature. The outcomes are that statistically significant increasing trends can be detected at the global scale, with close to two-thirds of stations showing increases. Furthermore, there is a statistically significant association with globally averaged near-surface temperature,withthemedianintensityofextremeprecipitationchanginginproportionwithchangesinglobal mean temperature at a rate of between 5.9% and 7.7%K 21 , depending on the method of analysis. This ratio was robust irrespective of record length or time period considered and was not strongly biased by the uneven global coverage of precipitation data. Finally, there is a distinct meridional variation, with the greatest sensitivity occurring in the tropics and higher latitudes and the minima around 138S and 118N. The greatest uncertainty was near the equator because of the limited number of sufficiently long precipitation records, and there remains an urgent need to improve data collection in this region to better constrain future changes in tropical precipitation.

Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation

Impacts of climate variability and change on seasonal drought characteristics of Pakistan

Trend analysis of streamflow provides practical information for better management of water resources on the eve of climate change. Thus, the objective of this study is to evaluate the presence of possible trends in the annual, seasonal, maximum, and minimum flow of Yangtze River at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in China for the period 1980 to 2015. The assessment was carried out using the Mann–Kendall trend test, and the innovative trend analysis, while Sen’s slope is used to estimate the magnitude of the changes. The results of the study revealed that there were increasing and decreasing trends at Cuntan and Zhutuo stations in different months. The mean annual flow was found to decrease at a rate of −26.76 m3/s and −17.37 m3/s at both stations. The minimum flow was found to significantly increase at a rate of 30.57 m3/s and 16.37 m3/s, at a 95% level of confidence. Maximum annual flows showed an increasing trend in both regions of the Yangtze River. On the seasonal scale, the results showed that stations are more sensitive to seasonal flow variability suggesting a probable flooding aggravation. The winter season showed an increasing flow trend, while summer showed a decreasing trend. The spring flow was found to have an increasing trend by the Mann–Kendall test at both stations, but in the Zhutuo Station, a decreasing trend was found by way of the innovative trend analysis method. However, the autumn flow indicated a decreasing trend over the region by the Mann–Kendall (MK) test at both stations while it had an increasing trend in Cuntan by the innovative trend analysis method. The result showed nonstationary increasing and decreasing flow trends over the region. Innovative trend analysis method has the advantage of detecting the sub-trends in the flow time series because of its ability to present the results in graphical format. The results of the study indicate that decreasing trends may create water scarcity if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

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Long-Term Trends and Seasonality Detection of the Observed Flow in Yangtze River Using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s Innovative Trend Method

. This paper presents an introductory synthesis for mapping potential habitats of arthropod vectors responsible for animal trypanosomiasis diseases in Northern Nigeria, where there is high production of livestock. Animal trypanosomiasis is considered an arthropod-borne viral disease which is endemic in 36 countries of sub-Saharan Africa and particularly in northern Nigeria. The disease which is transmitted by the vector tsetse fly remains a threat to both humans and livestock in many rural communities of Nigeria. The outbreak of the disease is known to occur as a result of the changing climate which relates to changes in sea surface temperatures otherwise known as “El Nino Southern Oscillations” (ENSO). Trypanosomiasis is mainly experienced whenever there are changes in global precipitation as a result of the changing climate. Monthly Satellite data of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at 2.5° spatial resolution was sourced from NASA-MODIS/CMD and subjected to principal component analysis using standardized principal components of GIS with a digital elevation model (DEM) supplemented in the analysis. Results revealed pockets of probable habitats of arthropod vectors to be around forest islands characterized by dry woodland and savanna, and in other cases around gallery forests and few lowland and riverine areas. This study demonstrates that geospatial technology is a cost effective tool in mapping of the arthropod vector habitats for Northern Nigeria.

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Mapping potential habitats for arthropod vectors of trypanosomiasis infection in northern nigeria: an introductory synthesis

Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns due to global warming would affect sustainability in water resources in many regions. This change would impact several sectors, particularly the agricultural and water resources. The major objective of the present study is to model the impacts of climate change on spatial variability in water sustainability of Nigeria. Gauge based gridded rainfall data of global precipitation climatology centre (GPCC) and temperature data of climate research unit (CRU) for the period 1901–2010 and total water storage (TWS) anomaly data of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) for the period 2002–2016 were used for this purpose. The concept of reliability-resiliency-vulnerability was used for the assessment of sustainability in water resources. Machine learning models were used for the development of empirical models for the simulation of TWS from GPCC rainfall and CRU temperature. Finally, the multi-model ensemble mean projections of rainfall and temperature of four GCMs namely MRI-CGCM3, HadGEM2-ES, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 and CESM1-CAM5 were used in the model for the assessment of climate change impact on water sustainability. The results revealed the declination of TWS in Nigeria up to −12 m during the rainy periods in some parts. Spatial assessment of the changes in TWS for the future shows the northeast, southeast and south-south parts would mostly experience decreases in TWS. Water sustainability will be low in these areas and some other parts of the country for the future.

Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria

Variations in Projections of Precipitations of CMIP6 Global Climate Models under SSP 2–45 and SSP 5–85

Joint Modelling of Drought Severity and Duration using Copula Theory: A Case Study of Ghana

Climate change adaptation has become a more serious issue to vulnerable countries like Bangladesh. The study areas, as one of the important food baskets of the country, has been experiencing wide-ranging extreme event (flood, riverbank erosion, cold wave, less and erratic rainfall, and prolonged droughts). Here severe affected sectors are agriculture; fisheries; livestock; housing; and drinking water, sanitation and public health. Through participatory Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), the adaptation strategies were prioritized based on the overall preferences of multiple stakeholder opinions at different level (community/village, upazila/sub-district, and district/regional level). Therefore, using MCA methods of the study areas helped their ideas from different level actors/stakeholders to improve the adaptation strategy, practices and drivers leading to vulnerability. The study found that most priority of adaptation measures of different sector i. e Agriculture; Fisheries; Livestock; Housing; and Drinking Water, Sanitation and Health sector; are Maize, and Sathi Fosol (mixed and relay culture); Livelihood Diversification; Adhi system (shared rearing of livestock); Rising plinth level, and Solar energy, and Ensure safe drinking water, and Enhance health facility and community clinic activities, respectively. The various mechanisms for coping and adaptation practices of different communities were identified in this study. The study suggests further support from the government. Study recommends a combination of the local and scientific knowledge, allocation of resources to the poor, technological transfer and innovative adaptation approaches for Bangladesh. 

Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

Papers

Mapping potential habitats for arthropod vectors of trypanosomiasis infection in northern nigeria: an introductory synthesis

Empirical Model for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Spatial Pattern of Water Availability in Nigeria

Variations in Projections of Precipitations of CMIP6 Global Climate Models under SSP 2–45 and SSP 5–85

Joint Modelling of Drought Severity and Duration using Copula Theory: A Case Study of Ghana

Prioritization of sectoral adaptation strategies and practices: A case study for Bangladesh