Climate engineering is a potential means to offset the climate warming caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Suggested methods broadly fall into two categories. Methods in the first category aim to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, whereas those in the second aim to alter Earth's radiation balance. The most prominent and best researched climate engineering approach in the second category is the injection of atmospheric aerosol particles or their precursor gases into the stratosphere ( 1 ), where these particles reflect solar radiation back to space. Climate engineering through cirrus cloud thinning, in contrast, mainly targets the long-wave radiation that is emitted from Earth.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/357/6348/248.full.pdf

A cirrus cloud climate dial

Cirrus clouds impact the planetary energy balance and upper-tropospheric water vapor transport and are therefore relevant for climate. In this study cirrus clouds at temperatures colder than −40°C simulated by the ECHAM–Hamburg Aerosol Module (ECHAM-HAM) general circulation model are compared to Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) satellite data. The model captures the general cloud cover pattern and reproduces the observed median ice water content within a factor of 2, while extinction is overestimated by about a factor of 3 as revealed by temperature-dependent frequency histograms. Two distinct types of cirrus clouds are found: in situ–formed cirrus dominating at temperatures colder than −55°C and liquid-origin cirrus dominating at temperatures warmer than −55°C. The latter cirrus form in anvils of deep convective clouds or by glaciation of mixed-phase clouds, leading to high ice crystal number concentrations. They are associated with extinction coefficie...

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0608.1

Cirrus Cloud Properties as Seen by the CALIPSO Satellite and ECHAM-HAM Global Climate Model

Greenhouse gases and cirrus clouds regulate outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and cirrus cloud coverage is predicted to be sensitive to the ice fall speed which depends on ice crystal size. The higher the cirrus, the greater their impact is on OLR. Thus by changing ice crystal size in the coldest cirrus, OLR and climate might be modified. Fortunately the coldest cirrus have the highest ice supersaturation due to the dominance of homogeneous freezing nucleation. Seeding such cirrus with very efficient heterogeneous ice nuclei should produce larger ice crystals due to vapor competition effects, thus increasing OLR and surface cooling. Preliminary estimates of this global net cloud forcing are more negative than −2. 8Wm −2 and could neutralize the radiative forcing due to a CO2 doubling (3. 7Wm −2 ). A potential delivery mechanism for the seeding material is already in place: the airline industry. Since seeding aerosol residence times in the troposphere are relatively short, the climate might return to its normal state within months after stopping the geoengineering experiment. The main known drawback to this approach is that it would not stop ocean acidification. It does not have many of the drawbacks that stratospheric injection of sulfur species has.

Modification of Cirrus Clouds to Reduce Global Warming: New Findings

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a backup plan to offset some aspects of anthropogenic climate change if timely CO2 emission reductions fail to materialize. Modeling studies have shown that there are trade-offs between changes in temperature and hydrological cycle in response to solar geoengineering. Here we investigate the possibility of stabilizing both global mean temperature and precipitation simultaneously by combining two geoengineering approaches: stratospheric sulfate aerosol increase (SAI) that deflects sunlight to space and cirrus cloud thinning (CCT) that enables more longwave radiation to escape to space. Using the slab ocean configuration of National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model, we simulate SAI by uniformly adding sulfate aerosol in the upper stratosphere and CCT by uniformly increasing cirrus cloud ice particle falling speed. Under an idealized warming scenario of abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2, we show that by combining appropriate amounts of SAI and CCT geoengineering, global mean (or land mean) temperature and precipitation can be restored simultaneously to preindustrial levels. However, compared to SAI, cocktail geoengineering by mixing SAI and CCT does not markedly improve the overall similarity between geoengineered climate and preindustrial climate on regional scales. Some optimal spatially nonuniform mixture of SAI with CCT might have the potential to better mitigate climate change at both the global and regional scales. Plain Language Summary Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide cause increase in both global temperatures and precipitation. Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a means to counteract this climate change by deliberately deflecting more sunlight from the Earth's climate system. Numerous climate modeling studies have shown that proposed solar geoengineering schemes, such as injection of sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere, can cool climate, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change is greater than that for CO2, meaning that such proposals cannot simultaneously globally restore both average temperatures and average precipitation. It has also been suggested that the Earth could be cooled by thinning cirrus clouds, but the amount of precipitation change per degree of temperature change for this method is less than that for CO2. Our climate modeling study shows, for the first time, that a cocktail of these two approaches would decrease precipitation and temperature in the same ratios as they are increased by CO2, which would allow simultaneous recovery of preindustrial temperature and precipitation in a high CO2 world at global scale. We show that although the average temperatures and precipitation can be recovered at global scale, substantial differences between the geoengineered and natural climates persist at regional scale.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2017GL074281

Simultaneous stabilization of global temperature and precipitation through cocktail geoengineering

The idea of modifying cirrus clouds to directly counteract greenhouse gas warming has gained momentum in recent years, despite disputes over its physical feasibility. Previous studies that analyzed modifications of cirrus clouds by seeding of ice nucleating particles showed large uncertainties in both cloud and surface climate responses, ranging from no effect or even a small warming to a globally averaged cooling of about 2.5°C. We use two general circulation models that showed very different responses in previous studies, ECHAM6-HAM and CESM-CAM5, to determine which radiative and climatic responses to cirrus cloud seeding in a 1.5 x CO2 world are common and which are not. Seeding reduces the net cirrus radiative effect for -1.8 W m-2 in CESM compared with only -0.8 W m-2 in ECHAM. Accordingly, the surface temperature decrease is larger in CESM, counteracting about 70% of the global mean temperature increase due to CO2 and only 30% in ECHAM. While seeding impacts on mean precipitation were addressed in past studies, we are the first to analyze extreme precipitation responses to cirrus seeding. Seeding decreases the frequency of the most extreme precipitation globally. However, the extreme precipitation events occur more frequently in the Sahel and Central America, following the mean precipitation increase due to a northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. In addition, we use a quadratic climate damage metric to evaluate the amount of CO2 -induced damage cirrus seeding can counteract. Seeding decreases the damage by about 50% in ECHAM, and by 85% in CESM over the 21 selected land regions. Climate damage due to CO2 increase is significantly reduced as a result of seeding in all of the considered land regions.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab71a3/pdf

To what extent can cirrus cloud seeding counteract global warming

. The complex microphysical details of cirrus seeding with ice nucleating particles (INPs) in numerical simulations are often mimicked by increasing ice crystal sedimentation velocities. So far it has not been tested whether these results are comparable to geoengineering simulations in which cirrus clouds are seeded with INPs. We compare simulations where the ice crystal sedimentation velocity is increased at temperatures colder than −35 °C with simulations of cirrus seeding with INPs using the ECHAM-HAM general circulation model. The radiative flux response of the two methods shows a similar behaviour in terms of annual and seasonal averages. Both methods decrease surface temperature but increase precipitation in response to a decreased atmospheric stability. Moreover, simulations of seeding with INPs lead to a decrease in liquid clouds, which counteracts part of the cooling due to changes in cirrus clouds. The liquid cloud response is largely avoided in a simulation where seeding occurs during night only. Simulations with increased ice crystal sedimentation velocity, however, lead to counteracting mixed-phase cloud responses. The increased sedimentation velocity simulations can counteract up to 60 % of the radiative effect of CO2 doubling with a maximum net top-of-the-atmosphere forcing of −2. 2 W m−2. They induce a 30 % larger surface temperature response, due to their lower altitude of maximum diabatic forcing compared with simulations of seeding with INPs.

/pdf/is-increasing-ice-crystal-sedimentation-velocity-in-4vzxlojc97.pdf

Is increasing ice crystal sedimentation velocity in geoengineering simulations a good proxy for cirrus cloud seeding

Abstract The behaviour of severe thunderstorms, particularly supercells, in complex terrain is still poorly understood. Utilising 6 years of radar-, lightning- and radiosounding-based thunderstorm data in the domain of the Swiss radar network, we study different thunderstorm types in separate topographical regions. We classify the storms as ordinary thunderstorms, intense and severe rainstorms, hail and severe hailstorms and supercellular storms. After identifying the overlaps between the storm categories of rainstorms, hailstorms and supercells, the life cycles of several intensity metrics are investigated. This analysis allows the identification of predictors for intensification within severe storm life cycles. One of the most important predictors is the detection of a mesocyclone in a supercell before the onset or intensification of hail. We then divide the radar domain into sub-regions ranging from the Northwestern Po Valley, the Southern Prealps, main Alpine ridge, Northern Prealps, Swiss Plateau and Jura. This regional split separates storms in different terrain complexities. An investigation of the intensity distribution of storms in each region shows a clear intensity decrease over the main Alpine ridge, intermediate values over the moderately complex Prealpine regions and peaks for the flat Po Valley and Swiss Plateau. In contrast, the highest frequency of storms is found in the Prealpine regions on each side, with a lower frequency in the flat areas and a minimum in convective activity over the main Alpine ridge. 

/pdf/hailstorms-and-rainstorms-versus-supercells-a-regional-3bki4p0l.pdf

Monika Feldmann

Papers

Is increasing ice crystal sedimentation velocity in geoengineering simulations a good proxy for cirrus cloud seeding

Hailstorms and rainstorms versus supercells—a regional analysis of convective storm types in the Alpine region