This book attempts to make growth models more accessible to foresters and others interested in mixed forests, whether planted or natural. There is an increasing interest in,
 and controversy surrounding the use of mixed plantations and natural forests, and rational discussion and resolution of management options require reliable growth models linked to other
 information systems. It is my hope that this book will help researchers to build better models, and will help users to understand how the models work and thus to appreciate their strengths
 and weaknesses. During recent years, vast areas of natural forest, especially in the tropics, have been logged or converted to other uses. Well-meaning forest managers have often been
 over-optimistic in estimating forest growth and yields, and this has contributed to over-cutting in some forests. Growth models can provide objective forecasts, offering forest managers the
 information needed to maintain harvests within the sustainable capacity of the forest, and providing quantitative data for land use planners to make informed decisions on land use
 alternatives. In this way, I hope that this book will contribute to the conservation and sustainable management of natural forests in the tropics and elsewhere. This is not a "How to do it"
 manual with step-by-step instructions to build a growth model for mixed forests. Unfortunately, modelling these forests isn't that easy. There is no single "best" way to build a model for
 these forests. Rather, many approaches can be used, and the best one depends on the data available, the time and expertise available to build the model, the computing resources, and the
 inferences that are to be drawn from the model. So instead of writing a "cookbook" with one or two recipes, I review and illustrate some of the many approaches available, indicate the
 requirements of and output from each, and highlight their strengths and limitations. The book emphasizes empirical-statistical models rather than physiological-process type models, not
 because they are superior, but because they have proven utility and offer immediate benefits for forest management. A more comprehensive treatment of all the options is beyond the scope of
 this book, which is intended to serve as a ready reference manual for those building growth models for forest management. Because of my limited linguistic ability, the material covered is
 more-or-less restricted to English-language material. I have not attempted to review all the published work on growth modelling (it would be a huge task), but have tried to highlight
 examples that may be applicable to mixed forests in tropical areas. I hope that the language and terminology used in this book will be accessible to all readers, especially those for whom
 English is a second language. The glossary may help to clarify some terms, and those that have a specific technical meaning are printed in italics the first time they are used. Readers
 should consult the glossary to clarify the meaning of these words unless they are sure of the meaning. Exercises are given at the end of each chapter to reinforce points made in the
 chapter. These are simple exercises, deliberately chosen so that they can be completed quickly with pen and paper or PC and spreadsheet, but within these constraints, I have tried to keep
 them realistic. Some exercises (e.g. 9.1 and 10.3) require more specialized statistical analyses, but many commercial statistical packages (e.g. GLIM) are suitable. Where possible, these
 exercises draw on real data, but some data were simulated to create interesting exercises with few data. Whilst my approach places more responsibility on the reader to choose and develop a
 suitable modelling methodology, I hope it will help readers gain a better understanding of modelling, which should in turn lead to better models and more reliable predictions. And I hope
 that better models will provide better information, greater understanding, and better management of mixed forests.

https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:8211/ModellingForestG.pdf

Modelling Forest Growth and Yield: Applications to Mixed Tropical Forests

1. Introduction.- 2. Tree Form and Stem Taper.- 3. Tree-stem Volume Equations.- 4. Tree Weight and Biomass Estimation.- 5. Quantifying Tree Crowns.- 6. Growth Functions.- 7. Evaluating Site Quality.- 8. Quantifying Stand Density.- 9. Indices of Individual-tree Competition.- 10. Modeling Forest Stand Development.- 11. Whole-stand Models for Even-aged Stands.- 12. Diameter-distribution Models for Even-aged Stands.- 13. Size-class Models for Even-aged Stands.- 14. Individual-tree Models for Even-aged Stands.- 15. Growth and Yield Models for Uneven-aged Stands.- 16. Modeling Response to Silvicultural Treatments.- 17. Modeling Wood Characteristics.- 18. Model Implementation and Evaluation.-

Modeling Forest Trees and Stands

https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:8355/R054_em_pp.pdf

Evaluating forest Growth Models

Effective model evaluation is not a single, simple procedure, but comprises several interrelated steps that cannot be separated from each other or from the purpose and process of model construction. We draw attention to several statistical and graphical procedures that may be used both with data used for model calibration and with data used in the evaluation of the model. We emphasize that the validity of conclusions depends on the validity of assumptions. These principles should be kept in mind throughout model construction and evaluation.

Tropical forests may have many species, indeterminate ages, and a wide range of growth habits and stem sizes, and thus require special modeling techniques. But technique contributes only part of model quality, and much depends on the quality of calibration data. Whole stand models have limited utility in these forests, as it is hard to describe the forest adequately with few stand-level variables. Stand table projection may to be useful where summarized stand data are available and computer resources are limited, but the many classes required detract from the method. Matrix methods are suitable where stand density and silvicultural practices remain within a narrow range, but are untenable for general conditions. Tree list models offer greater flexibility, enable projections under a wide range of conditions and provide diverse information. Increment equations may predict growth or yield of basal area or diameter but should ensure reliable predictions over all tree sizes, sites and stand conditions. Mortality may be modelled with logistic functions fitted to individual tree data. Regeneration models are complex where there are many species, and two-stage recruitment models may be more practical. The value of a model is in the use to which it is put, so models should be easy to use, well documented and readily available.

https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:8366/R048_fs_pp.pdf

Morion R. Reynolds

Papers

Goodness-of-fit tests and model selection procedures for diameter distribution models