This paper reviews the status of forecasting convective precipitation for time periods less than a few hours (nowcasting). Techniques for nowcasting thunderstorm location were developed in the 1960s and 1970s by extrapolating radar echoes. The accuracy of these forecasts generally decreases very rapidly during the first 30 min because of the very short lifetime of individual convective cells. Fortunately more organized features like squall lines and supercells can be successfully extrapolated for longer time periods. Physical processes that dictate the initiation and dissipation of convective storms are not necessarily observable in the past history of a particular echo development; rather, they are often controlled by boundary layer convergence features, environmental vertical wind shear, and buoyancy. Thus, successful forecasts of storm initiation depend on accurate specification of the initial thermodynamic and kinematic fields with particular attention to convergence lines. For these reasons ...

https://opensky.ucar.edu/islandora/object/articles%3A3309/datastream/PDF/view

Nowcasting Thunderstorms: A Status Report

Thermodynamic Conditions Favorable to Superlative Thunderstorm Updraft, Mixed Phase Microphysics and Lightning Flash Rate

The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) included four complementary research components: quantitative precipitation forecasting, convection initiation, atmospheric boundary layer processes, and instrumentation. This special issue introductory paper will review the current state of knowledge on surface-forced convection initiation and then describe some of the outstanding issues in convection initiation that partially motivated IHOP_2002. Subsequent papers in this special issue will illustrate the value of combining varied and complementary datasets to study convection initiation in order to address the outstanding issues discussed in this paper and new questions that arose from IHOP_2002 observations. The review will focus on convection initiation by boundaries that are prevalent in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Boundary layer circulations, which are sometimes precursors to deep convective development, are clearly observed by radar as reflectivity fine lines and/or convergence in Doppler velo...

A Review of Convection Initiation and Motivation for IHOP_2002

Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is a term in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. Vertically integrated MFC was also incorporated into the Kuo cumulus parameterization scheme for the Tropics. MFC was eventually suggested for use in forecasting convective initiation in the midlatitudes in 1970, but practical MFC usage quickly evolved to include only surface data, owing to the higher spatial and temporal resolution of surface observations. Since then, surface MFC has been widely applied as a short-term (0–3 h) prognostic quantity for forecasting convective initiation, with an emphasis on determining the favorable spatial location(s) for such development. A scale analysis shows that surface MFC is directly proportional to the horizontal mass convergence field, allowing MFC to be highly effective in highlighting mesoscale boundaries between different air masses near the earth’s surface that can be resolved by surface data and appropriate grid spacing in gridded analyses and numerical models. However, the effectiveness of boundaries in generating deep moist convection is influenced by many factors, including the depth of the vertical circulation along the boundary and the presence of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN) near the boundary. Moreover, lower- and upper-tropospheric jets, frontogenesis, and other forcing mechanisms may produce horizontal mass convergence above the surface, providing the necessary lift to bring elevated parcels to their level of free convection without connection to the boundary layer. Case examples elucidate these points as a context for applying horizontal mass convergence for convective initiation. Because horizontal mass convergence is a more appropriate diagnostic in an ingredients-based methodology for forecasting convective initiation, its use is recommended over MFC.

FORECASTER'S FORUM The Use of Moisture Flux Convergence in Forecasting Convective Initiation: Historical and Operational Perspectives

Moisture flux convergence (MFC) is a term in the conservation of water vapor equation and was first calculated in the 1950s and 1960s as a vertically integrated quantity to predict rainfall associated with synoptic-scale systems. Vertically integrated MFC was also incorporated into the Kuo cumulus parameterization scheme for the Tropics. MFC was eventually suggested for use in forecasting convective initiation in the midlatitudes in 1970, but practical MFC usage quickly evolved to include only surface data, owing to the higher spatial and temporal resolution of surface observations. Since then, surface MFC has been widely applied as a short-term (0–3 h) prognostic quantity for forecasting convective initiation, with an emphasis on determining the favorable spatial location(s) for such development. A scale analysis shows that surface MFC is directly proportional to the horizontal mass convergence field, allowing MFC to be highly effective in highlighting mesoscale boundaries between different air ...

The Use of Moisture Flux Convergence in Forecasting Convective Initiation: Historical and Operational Perspectives

The initiation of thunderstorms is examined through a combined observational and modeling case study. The study is based on Doppler radar, aircraft, mesonet, balloon sounding, and profiler and photographic data from the Convection Initiation and Downburst Experiment (CINDE) conducted near Denver, Colorado. The study examines the initiation of a line of thunderstorms that developed along a preexisting, quasi-stationary boundary-layer convergence line on 17 July 1987. The storms were triggered at the intersection of the convergence line with horizontal rolls where enhanced updrafts were present. The primary effect of the convergence line was to deepen the moist layer locally and provide a region potentially favorable to deep convection. The critical factor governing the time of storm development was apparently related to the attainment of a balance between horizontal vorticity in the opposing flows on either side of the convergence line. The effect was to cause the updrafts in the convergence line ...

https://opensky.ucar.edu:/islandora/object/articles%3A3268/datastream/PDF/view

N. Andrew Cṙook

Papers

The Role of Boundary-Layer Convergence Zones and Horizontal Rolls in the Initiation of Thunderstorms: A Case Study