The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in southern Africa has been characterized by three distinct waves. The first was associated with a mix of SARS-CoV-2 lineages, while the second and third waves were driven by the Beta (B.1.351) and Delta (B.1.617.2) variants, respectively1-3. In November 2021, genomic surveillance teams in South Africa and Botswana detected a new SARS-CoV-2 variant associated with a rapid resurgence of infections in Gauteng province, South Africa. Within three days of the first genome being uploaded, it was designated a variant of concern (Omicron, B.1.1.529) by the World Health Organization and, within three weeks, had been identified in 87 countries. The Omicron variant is exceptional for carrying over 30 mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which are predicted to influence antibody neutralization and spike function4. Here we describe the genomic profile and early transmission dynamics of Omicron, highlighting the rapid spread in regions with high levels of population immunity. 

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Rapid epidemic expansion of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant in southern Africa

Where 2020 saw the development and testing of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) at an unprecedented pace, the first half of 2021 has seen vaccine rollout in many countries. In this Progress article, we provide a snapshot of ongoing vaccine efficacy studies, as well as real-world data on vaccine effectiveness and the impact of virus variants of concern. Where they have been deployed in a high proportion of the adult population, the currently approved vaccines have been extremely effective in preventing COVID-19, particularly severe disease. Nonetheless, there are still significant challenges in ensuring equitable vaccine access around the globe and lessons that can be learned for controlling this pandemic and for the next pandemic.

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Progress of the COVID-19 vaccine effort: viruses, vaccines and variants versus efficacy, effectiveness and escape.

Comparing COVID-19 vaccines for their characteristics, efficacy and effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern: A narrative review.

http://manuscript.elsevier.com/S1198743X21006042/pdf/S1198743X21006042.pdf

Comparing COVID-19 vaccines for their characteristics, efficacy and effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern: a narrative review

Abstract Three lineages (BA.1, BA.2 and BA.3) of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant of concern predominantly drove South Africa’s fourth Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) wave. We have now identified two new lineages, BA.4 and BA.5, responsible for a fifth wave of infections. The spike proteins of BA.4 and BA.5 are identical, and similar to BA.2 except for the addition of 69–70 deletion (present in the Alpha variant and the BA.1 lineage), L452R (present in the Delta variant), F486V and the wild-type amino acid at Q493. The two lineages differ only outside of the spike region. The 69–70 deletion in spike allows these lineages to be identified by the proxy marker of S-gene target failure, on the background of variants not possessing this feature. BA.4 and BA.5 have rapidly replaced BA.2, reaching more than 50% of sequenced cases in South Africa by the first week of April 2022. Using a multinomial logistic regression model, we estimated growth advantages for BA.4 and BA.5 of 0.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.08–0.09) and 0.10 (95% CI: 0.09–0.11) per day, respectively, over BA.2 in South Africa. The continued discovery of genetically diverse Omicron lineages points to the hypothesis that a discrete reservoir, such as human chronic infections and/or animal hosts, is potentially contributing to further evolution and dispersal of the virus. 

/pdf/emergence-of-sars-cov-2-omicron-lineages-ba-4-and-ba-5-in-1zu2mek5.pdf

Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa

We present a global analysis of the spread of recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants and estimate changes in effective reproduction numbers at country-specific level using sequence data from GISAID. Nearly all investigated countries demonstrated rapid replacement of previously circulating lineages by the World Health Organization-designated variants of concern, with estimated transmissibility increases of 29% (95% CI: 24-33), 25% (95% CI: 20-30), 38% (95% CI: 29-48) and 97% (95% CI: 76-117), respectively, for B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 and B.1.617.2.

Neale Batra

Papers

Increased transmissibility and global spread of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern as at June 2021.