抗原变异可使得多种致病微生物易于逃避宿主免疫应答。表达在感染红细胞表面的恶性疟原虫红细胞表面蛋白1（PfPMP1）与感染红细胞、内皮细胞、树突状细胞以及胎盘的单个或多个受体作用，在黏附及免疫逃避中起关键的作用。每个单倍体基因组var基因家族编码约60种成员，通过启动转录不同的var基因变异体为抗原变异提供了分子基础。

疟原虫var基因转换速率变化导致抗原变异[英]／Paul H, Robert P, Christodoulou Z, et al//Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A

The ‘Great Acceleration’ graphs, originally published in 2004 to show socio-economic and Earth System trends from 1750 to 2000, have now been updated to 2010. In the graphs of socio-economic trends, where the data permit, the activity of the wealthy (OECD) countries, those countries with emerging economies, and the rest of the world have now been differentiated. The dominant feature of the socio-economic trends is that the economic activity of the human enterprise continues to grow at a rapid rate. However, the differentiated graphs clearly show that strong equity issues are masked by considering global aggregates only. Most of the population growth since 1950 has been in the non-OECD world but the world’s economy (GDP), and hence consumption, is still strongly dominated by the OECD world. The Earth System indicators, in general, continued their long-term, post-industrial rise, although a few, such as atmospheric methane concentration and stratospheric ozone loss, showed a slowing or apparent stabilisation over the past decade. The post-1950 acceleration in the Earth System indicators remains clear. Only beyond the mid-20th century is there clear evidence for fundamental shifts in the state and functioning of the Earth System that are beyond the range of variability of the Holocene and driven by human activities. Thus, of all the candidates for a start date for the Anthropocene, the beginning of the Great Acceleration is by far the most convincing from an Earth System science perspective.

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The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

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Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on planetary health

The United Nations (UN) recently released population projections based on data until 2012 and a Bayesian probabilistic methodology. Analysis of these data reveals that, contrary to previous literature, the world population is unlikely to stop growing this century. There is an 80% probability that world population, now 7.2 billion people, will increase to between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion in 2100. This uncertainty is much smaller than the range from the traditional UN high and low variants. Much of the increase is expected to happen in Africa, in part due to higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. Also, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline substantially in all countries, even those that currently have young populations.

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World population stabilization unlikely this century

BACKGROUNDThe United Nations (UN) produces population projections for all countries every two years. These are used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers for policy planning, for monitoring development goals, as inputs to economic and environmental models, and for social and health research. The UN is considering producing fully probabilistic population projections, for which joint probabilistic projections of future female and male life expectancy at birth are needed.OBJECTIVEWe propose a methodology for obtaining joint probabilistic projections of female and male life expectancy at birth.METHODSWe first project female life expectancy using a one-sex method for probabilistic projection of life expectancy. We then project the gap between female and male life expectancy. We propose an autoregressive model for the gap in a future time period for a particular country, which is a function of female life expectancy and a t-distributed random perturbation. This method takes into account mortality data limitations, is comparable across countries, and accounts for shocks. We estimate all parameters based on life expectancy estimates for 1950-2010. The methods are implemented in the bayesLife and bayesPop R packages.RESULTSWe evaluated our model using out-of-sample projections for the period 1995-2010 and found that our method performed better than several possible alternatives.CONCLUSIONSWe find that the average gap between female and male life expectancy has been increasing for female life expectancy below 75, and decreasing for female life expectancy above 75. Our projections of the gap are lower than the UN's 2008 projections for most countries and thus lead to higher projections of male life expectancy.(ProQuest: ... denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionEvery two years, the Population Division of the United Nations (UN) publishes the World Population Prospects (WPP), reporting population estimates and projections for all coun- tries. Experts then use these projections to monitor population trends and as inputs to economic and environmental models. The UN's population projections form the basis of many nations' and regions' development plans (Heilig et al. 2010).Since 1980, each edition of the WPP has included three projection variants: low, medium, and high. The medium variant is intended to represent the most likely population size given past trends and expert knowledge. The low and high variants are then generated using different fertility assumptions: total fertility is taken to be half a child either below or above that used to generate the medium scenario. Thus the variation in fertility allowed by this method is insensitive to either the level of fertility in a particular country or its trend. The assumptions about mortality and international migration are the same in all three variants.Deterministic population projections are unable to take into account the full variabil- ity in demographic processes across countries or to indicate a range of future population outcomes. As a result, the UN is considering issuing probabilistic population projections as an alternative to their standard variants of deterministic projections. As WPP projec- tions are based on the cohort-component method, probabilistic projections of the main de- mographic processes affecting national populations (fertility, mortality and international migration) are required to produce probabilistic population projections for all countries.Probabilistic projections of fertility for all countries have already been developed by Alkema et al. (2011) and implemented in WPP 2010 (United Nations 2011). The medium variant in WPP 2010 corresponds to the median of the many possible future fertility paths for each country generated by the Alkema et al. (2011) model.Here we are concerned with the projection of mortality. …

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Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy

Undergraduates entering science curricula differ greatly in individual starting points and learning needs. The fast pace, high enrollment, and high stakes of introductory science courses, however, limit students’ opportunities to self-assess and modify learning strategies. The University of Washington's Biology Fellows Program (BFP) intervenes through a 20-session, premajors course that introduces students to the rigor expected of bioscience majors and assists their development as science learners. This study uses quantitative and qualitative approaches to assess whether the 2007–2009 BFP achieved its desired short- and long-term impacts on student learning. Adjusting for differences in students’ high school grade point average and Scholastic Aptitude Test scores, we found that participation in the BFP was associated with higher grades in two subsequent gateway biology courses, across multiple quarters and instructors. Two to 4 yr after participating in the program, students attributed changes in how they approached learning science to BFP participation. They reported having learned to “think like a scientist” and to value active-learning strategies and learning communities. In addition, they reported having developed a sense of belonging in bioscience communities. The achievement of long-term impacts for a short-term instructional investment suggests a practical means to prepare diverse students for the rigors of science curricula.

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Nevena Lalic

Papers

World population stabilization unlikely this century

Joint Probabilistic Projection of Female and Male Life Expectancy

Facilitating Long-Term Changes in Student Approaches to Learning Science

Supplementary Materials for World population stabilization unlikely this century