/pdf/handbook-on-methods-for-climate-change-impact-assessment-and-2u8gon5mzn.pdf

Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies

Climate scenario development

In discussions of landscape sensitivity, human activities have generally been regarded as external forces contributing to landscape change, with a focus on the impacts of cultivation methods, fertiliser practices, grazing pressures and atmospheric pollution. However, there has been comparatively little study undertaken that integrates physical and social systems in a historic context to explain the basis of human activity in sensitive landscapes. Where such attempts have been made, the manner of common land management has figured prominently, with ‘tragedy of the commons’ concepts used to explain land degradation and to provide a foundation for policy response. This has also been the case in Southern Iceland and in this paper we assess the extent to which common land domestic grazing pressures were the primary external force causing soil erosion and land degradation during the period of occupation from ca. 874 AD. We first provide field observation of soil erosion, temporally defined by tephrochronology, to highlight the extent of land degradation during this period. The ‘tragedy of the commons’ explanation of degradation is then assessed by evaluating historic documentary sources, and by environmental reconstruction and modeling of historic grazing pressures. These analyses indicate that regulatory mechanisms were in place to prevent overgrazing from at least the 1200s AD and suggest that there was sufficient biomass to support the numbers of domestic livestock indicated from historic sources. We suggest that failure to remove domestic livestock before the end of the growing season and an absence of shepherding were more likely to contribute to land degradation than absolute numbers. Lack of appropriate regulation of domestic livestock on common grazing areas can be attributed to limited cultural knowledge of changing and rapidly fluctuating environmental conditions.

https://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/~nabo/meetings/glthec/materials/simpson/Simpson_sIceland_grazing.pdf

Crossing the thresholds: human ecology and historical patterns of landscape degradation

Between ca. 790 and 1000 AD, Scandinavian settlers occupied the islands of the North Atlantic: Shetland, the Orkneys, the Hebrides, the Faroes, Iceland, and Greenland. These offshore islands initially supported stands of willow, alder, and birch, and a range of non-arboreal species suitable for pasture for the imported Norse domestic animals. Overstocking of domestic animals, fuel collection, ironworking, and construction activity seems to have rapidly depleted the dwarf trees, and several scholars argue that soil erosion and other forms of environmental degradation also resulted from Norse landuse practices in the region. Such degradation of pasture communities may have played a significant role in changing social relationships and late medieval economic decline in the western tier colonies of Iceland and Greenland. This paper presents simple quantified models for Scandinavian environmental impact in the region, and suggests some sociopolitical causes for ultimately maladaptive floral degradation.

Northern Islands, human error, and environmental degradation: A view of social and ecological change in the Medieval North Atlantic

Climate change affects the physical and biological system in many regions of the world. The extent to which human systems will suffer economically from climate change depends on the adaptive capabilities within a region as well as across regions. We use an economic General-Equilibrium model and an Ocean-Atmosphere model in a regionally and sectorally disaggregated framework to analyze adaptation to climate change in different regions of the world. It turns out that vulnerability to climate impacts differs significantly across regions and that the overall adjustment of the economic system quite reduces the direct climate impacts.

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/2615/1/kap1065.pdf

Ó. Dýrmundsson

Papers

The effects of climatic variations on agriculture in Iceland.