The high income elasticity of demand often estimated for U.S. imports may be a spurious result of omitting new product varieties from the import price indexes. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how to incorporate new product varieties into a constant-elasticity-of-substitution aggregate of import prices. This method is applied to U.S. imports of six disaggregate manufactured goods. It is shown that the corrected indexes are able to account for part--but not all--of the high income elasticities. (JEL C43, F14)

New product varieties and the measurement of international prices

We outline in this chapter the concept of the balance-of-payments equilibrium growth rate, as originally developed by Thirlwall (1979, 1982a), and then show its empirical application to a wide range of developed and less developed countries, drawing also on the recent work of Bairam (1988, 1990). The two original papers by Thirlwall are presented here basically in their original form, but with some modifications.

The Balance-of-Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences

Professor Kaldor has been a long standing critic of the application of neo-classical modes of thought to the analysis of economic growth and development. In recent years, in particular, he has followed the line of Myrdal [1] in attacking the predictions of neo-classical theory that regional (national) growth rate differences will tend to narrow with trade and the free mobility of the factors of production. The essence of the argument is that once a region gains a growth advantage it will tend to sustain that advantage through the process of increasing returns that growth itself induces—the so-called Verdoorn effect [2]. The fullest statement of Kaldor’s views at the regional level is contained in a lecture to the Scottish Economic Society published in 1970 [3]. Unfortunately the model he presents is purely verbal and lacks the rigour and precision that one normally associates with Kaldor. The purpose here is to attempt to formalize the model in order to clarify its structure,1 and to consider such questions as: the role of the Verdoorn effect in contributing to regional growth rate differences; whether regional growth rate differences will tend to narrow or diverge through time; and how policies of regional ‘devaluation’ can raise a region’s growth rate.2

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A Model of Regional Growth Rate Differences on Kaldorian Lines

Within the international trade literature it is not uncommon to find arguments about whether devaluation will improve the trade balance. It is argued that the flows of goods respond only with time lags to changes in the exchange rate. The J-Curve terrn is used to describe the movement over time of the trade balance: it may deteriorate at first and improvement may come later. This paper presents a method by which one could detect the existence of the J-Curve. The method is applied to four developing countries. The empirical evidence supports the pattern of movemnent described by the J-Curve. A major policy option for a country facing a persistent balance of payments deficit is said to be devaluation of its currency. Within the international trade literature it is not uncommon to find arguments about whether devaluation will improve the trade balance or the balance of payments. For example, proponents of the elasticities approach describe the necessary and sufficient conditions for an improvement in the trade balance in terms of elasticities of demand and supply referred to as the Marshall-Lerner condition.' While there is abundant empirical evidence to suggest that these conditions are indeed met (at least for industrial countries), there have been circumstances under which 2 devaluation has not been successful. For example, one might wonder why the U.S. trade balance deteriorated so much in 1972 despite the devaluation of the dollar in 1971. This unfavorable effect of devaluation on the trade balance is termed the "J-Curve" phenomenon Received for publication August 23, 1984. Revision accepted for publication November 26, 1984. *The University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee. I would like to thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments on the initial draft of this paper. 1 Proponents of the absorption approach (e.g., Alexander, 1952) describe how devaluation may change the terms of trade, increase production, and switch expenditures from foreign to domestic goods, thus improving the trade balance. International monetarists argue that devaluation reduces the real value of cash balances and/or changes the relative price of traded and nontraded goods, thus improving both the trade balance and the balance of payments. 2 For an cstimate of the elasticities, see Houthakker and Magee (1969) and Warner and Kreinin (1983). The former study provides the elasticities estimates under fixed exchange rates and the latter under floating rates. This content downloaded from 157.55.39.17 on Wed, 31 Aug 2016 04:39:37 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms

Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs

International tourism demand and its determinants have been the subjects of numerous studies over the past three decades Previous reviews of this body of research have identified only a small number of these studies In contrast, this survey has attempted a comprehensive review of the literature In this article, the first in a three-part series, similarities and dissimilarities in approach are discussed as a guide to researchers wishing to conduct similar studies

P Magee Stephen

Papers

Income and price elasticities in world trade