This paper evaluates alternative models for detecting earnings management. The paper restricts itself to models that assume the construct being managed is discretionary accruals, since such models are commonly used in the extant accounting literature. Existing models range from simple models in which discretionary accruals are measured as total accruals, to more sophisticated models that separate total accruals into a discretionary and a non-discretionary component. Prior to this paper, there had been no systematic evidence bearing on the relative performance of these alternative models at detecting earnings management. This paper evaluates the relative performance of the competing models by comparing the specification and power of commonly used test statistics across the measures of discretionary accruals generated by each model. The specification of the test statistics is evaluated by examining the frequency with which they generate type I errors for a random sample of firm-years and for samples of firm-years with extreme financial performance. We focus on samples with extreme financial performance because the stimuli investigated in previous research are frequently correlated with financial performance. The first sample of firms are targeted by the Securities and Exchange Commission for allegedly overstating annual earnings and the second sample is created by artificially introducing earnings management into a random sample of firms.

Detecting Earnings Management

Corporate disclosure is critical for the functioning of an efficient capital market. Firms provide disclosure through regulated financial reports, including the financial statements, footnotes, management discussion and analysis, and other regulatory filings. In addition, some firms engage in voluntary communication, such as management forecasts, analysts? presentations and conference calls, press releases, internet sites, and other corporate reports. Finally, there are disclosures about firms by information intermediaries, such as financial analysts, industry experts, and the financial press.

Information Asymmetry, Corporate Disclosure and the Capital Markets: A Review of the Empirical Disclosure Literature

1. Introduction and Overview. 2. Detecting Influential Observations and Outliers. 3. Detecting and Assessing Collinearity. 4. Applications and Remedies. 5. Research Issues and Directions for Extensions. Bibliography. Author Index. Subject Index.

Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity

http://lib.cufe.edu.cn/upload_files/other/4_20140516025625_19.pdf

Information asymmetry, corporate disclosure, and the capital markets: A review of the empirical disclosure literature $

This paper studies the cross-sectional properties of return forecasts derived from Fama-MacBeth regressions. These forecasts mimic how an investor could, in real time, combine many firm characteristics to obtain a composite estimate of a stockâs expected return. Empirically, the forecasts vary substantially across stocks and have strong predictive power for actual returns. For example, using ten-year rolling estimates of Fama- MacBeth slopes and a cross-sectional model with 15 firm characteristics (all based on low-frequency data), the expected-return estimates have a cross-sectional standard deviation of 0.87% monthly and a predictive slope for future monthly returns of 0.74, with a standard error of 0.07.

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The Cross-section of Expected Stock Returns

This paper evaluates alternative accrual-based models for detecting earnings management. The evaluation compares the specification and power of commonly used test statistics across the measures of discretionary accruals generated by the models and provides the following major insights. First, all of the models appear well specified when applied to a random sample of firm-years. Second, the models all generate tests of low power for earnings management of economically plausible magnitudes (e.g., one to five percent of total assets). Third, all models reject the null hypothesis of no earnings management at rates exceeding the specified test-levels when applied to samples of firms with extreme financial performance. This result highlights the importance of controlling for financial performance when investigating earnings management stimuli that are correlated with financial performance. Finally, a modified version of the model developed by Jones (1991) exhibits the most power in detecting earnings management.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdfplus/248303.pdf

Detecting earnings management

. This study investigates firms subject to accounting enforcement actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission for alleged violations of Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. We investigate: (i) the extent to which the alleged earnings manipulations can be explained by extant earnings management hypotheses; (ii) the relation between earnings manipulations and weaknesses in firms' internal governance structures; and (iii) the capital market consequences experienced by firms when the alleged earnings manipulations are made public. We find that an important motivation for earnings manipulation is the desire to attract external financing at low cost. We show that this motivation remains significant after controlling for contracting motives proposed in the academic literature. We also find that firms manipulating earnings are: (i) more likely to have boards of directors dominated by management; (ii) more likely to have a Chief Executive Officer who simultaneously serves as Chairman of the Board; (iii) more likely to have a Chief Executive Officer who is also the firm's founder, (iv) less likely to have an audit committee; and (v) less likely to have an outside blockholder. Finally, we document that firms manipulating earnings experience significant increases in their costs of capital when the manipulations are made public.

Resume. Les auteurs analysent les entreprises assujetties aux mesures d'execution prises par la Securities and Exchange Commission dans les cas de presomption de transgression des principes comptables generalement reconnus. Ils s'interessent aux aspects suivants de la question: i) la mesure dans laquelle les presomptions de manipulations des benefices peuvent etre expliquees par les hypotheses existantes de gestion des benefices; ii) la relation entre les manipulations de benefices et les faiblesses des structures de regie interne des entreprises; et iii) la reaction du marche financier a l'endroit des entreprises au sujet desquelles les presomptions de manipulation des benefices sont rendues publiques. Les auteurs constatent qu'un incitatif majeur a la manipulation des benefices est le desir d'obtenir du financement externe a moindre cout. Ils demontrent que cet incitatif demeure important meme apres le controle des motifs contractuels que mettent de l'avant les travaux theoriques. Ils constatent egalement que les entreprises qui manipulent les benefices sont: i) davantage susceptibles d'avoir des conseils d'administration domines par la direction; ii) davantage susceptibles d'avoir un chef de la direction qui joue simultanement le role de president du conseil; iii) davantage susceptibles d'avoir un chef de la direction qui est egalement le fondateur de l'entreprise; iv) moins susceptibles d'avoir un comite de verification; et v) moins susceptibles d'avoir un bloc de titres detenus par un actionnaire exterieur. Enfin, les auteurs etablissent le fait que le cout du capital, pour les entreprises qui manipulent les benefices, enregistre des hausses appreciables lorsque ces manipulations sont rendues publiques.

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Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC*

This paper suggests a new measure of one aspect of the quality of accruals and earnings. The major benefit of accruals is to reduce timing and mismatching problems in the underlying cash flows. However, accruals accomplish this benefit at the cost of making assumptions and estimates about future cash flows, which implies that accruals include errors of estimation or noise. Since estimation noise reduces the beneficial role of accruals, this study suggests that the quality of accruals and earnings is decreasing in the magnitude of estimation noise in accruals. More specifically, we develop a simple model of working capital accruals where accruals correct the timing problems in cash flows at the cost of including errors in estimation. Based on the model, we derive an empirical measure of accrual quality as the residual from firm-specific regressions of changes in working capital on past, present, and future operating cash flow realizations. The study concludes with two empirical applications that illustrate the usefulness of our measure of accrual quality. First, we explore the relation of accrual quality to economic fundamentals. We find that accrual quality is negatively related to the magnitude of total accruals, length of the operating cycle, and the standard deviation of sales, cash flows, and earnings, while it is positively related to firm size. Second, we show a strong positive relation between accrual quality and earnings persistence.

The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors

This paper suggests a new measure of one aspect of the quality of working capital accruals and earnings. One role of accruals is to shift or adjust the recognition of cash flows over time so that t...

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Patricia M. Dechow

Papers

Detecting Earnings Management

Detecting earnings management

Causes and Consequences of Earnings Manipulation: An Analysis of Firms Subject to Enforcement Actions by the SEC*

The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors

The Quality of Accruals and Earnings: The Role of Accrual Estimation Errors