An optimal predictive control strategy for COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) social distancing policies in Brazil.

Model predictive control to mitigate the COVID-19 outbreak in a multi-region scenario.

When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. In this case, the optimal control must meet competing requirements: First, the minimization of disease-related deaths, and, second, the establishment of a sufficient degree of natural immunity at the end of the measures, in order to exclude a second wave. Moreover, the socio-economic costs of the intervention shall be kept at a minimum. The numerically computed optimal control strategy is a single-intervention scenario that goes beyond heuristically motivated interventions and simple “flattening of the curve”. Careful analysis of the computed control strategy reveals, however, that the obtained solution is in fact a tightrope walk close to the stability boundary of the system, where socio-economic costs and the risk of a new outbreak must be constantly balanced against one another. The model system is calibrated to reproduce the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

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Beyond just “flattening the curve”: Optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions

The management of COVID-19 appears to be a long-term challenge, even in countries that have managed to suppress the epidemic after their initial outbreak. In this paper, we propose a model predictive approach for the constrained control of a nonlinear compartmental model that captures the key dynamical properties of COVID-19. The control design uses the discrete-time version of the epidemic model, and it is able to handle complex, possibly time-dependent constraints, logical relations between model variables and multiple predefined discrete levels of interventions. A state observer is also constructed for the computation of non-measured variables from the number of hospitalized patients. Five control scenarios with different cost functions and constraints are studied through numerical simulations, including an output feedback configuration with uncertain parameters. It is visible from the results that, depending on the cost function associated with different policy aims, the obtained controls correspond to mitigation and suppression strategies, and the constructed control inputs are similar to real-life government responses. The results also clearly show the key importance of early intervention, the continuous tracking of the susceptible population and that of future work in determining the true costs of restrictive control measures and their quantitative effects.

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Nonlinear model predictive control with logic constraints for COVID-19 management.

A method is presented to analyze the stability of feedback systems with neural network controllers. Two stability theorems are given to prove asymptotic stability and to compute an ellipsoidal inner-approximation to the region of attraction (ROA). The first theorem addresses linear time-invariant systems, and merges Lyapunov theory with local (sector) quadratic constraints to bound the nonlinear activation functions in the neural network. The second theorem allows the system to include perturbations such as unmodeled dynamics, slope-restricted nonlinearities, and time delay, using integral quadratic constraint (IQCs) to capture their input/output behavior. This in turn allows for off-by-one IQCs to refine the description of activation functions by capturing their slope restrictions. Both results rely on semidefinite programming to approximate the ROA. The method is illustrated on systems with neural networks trained to stabilize a nonlinear inverted pendulum as well as vehicle lateral dynamics with actuator uncertainty.

Stability Analysis using Quadratic Constraints for Systems with Neural Network Controllers

Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak.

We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without inducing excessive social costs. We consider a tailored model of the German COVID-19 outbreak with different parameter sets to design and validate our approach. Our analysis reveals that an open-loop optimal control policy can significantly decrease the number of fatalities when compared to simpler policies under the assumption of exact model knowledge. In a more realistic scenario with uncertain data and model mismatch, a feedback strategy that updates the policy weekly using model predictive control (MPC) leads to a reliable performance, even when applied to a validation model with deviant parameters. On top of that, we propose a robust MPC-based feedback policy using interval arithmetic that adapts the social distancing measures cautiously and safely, thus leading to a minimum number of fatalities even if measurements are inaccurate and the infection rates cannot be precisely specified by social distancing. Our theoretical findings support various recent studies by showing that 1) adaptive feedback strategies are required to reliably contain the COVID-19 outbreak, 2) well-designed policies can significantly reduce the number of fatalities compared to simpler ones while keeping the amount of social distancing measures on the same level, and 3) imposing stronger social distancing measures early on is more effective and cheaper in the long run than opening up too soon and restoring stricter measures at a later time.

Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak

Due to their susceptibility to adversarial perturbations, neural networks (NNs) are hardly used in safety-critical applications. One measure of robustness to such perturbations in the input is the Lipschitz constant of the input-output map defined by an NN. In this letter, we propose a framework to train multi-layer NNs while at the same time encouraging robustness by keeping their Lipschitz constant small, thus addressing the robustness issue. More specifically, we design an optimization scheme based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers that minimizes not only the training loss of an NN but also its Lipschitz constant resulting in a semidefinite programming based training procedure that promotes robustness. We design two versions of this training procedure. The first one includes a regularizer that penalizes an accurate upper bound on the Lipschitz constant. The second one allows to enforce a desired Lipschitz bound on the NN at all times during training. Finally, we provide two examples to show that the proposed framework successfully increases the robustness of NNs.

Training Robust Neural Networks Using Lipschitz Bounds

Due to their susceptibility to adversarial perturbations, neural networks (NNs) are hardly used in safety-critical applications. One measure of robustness to such perturbations in the input is the Lipschitz constant of the input-output map defined by an NN. In this work, we propose a framework to train multi-layer NNs while at the same time encouraging robustness by keeping their Lipschitz constant small, thus addressing the robustness issue. More specifically, we design an optimization scheme based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers that minimizes not only the training loss of an NN but also its Lipschitz constant resulting in a semidefinite programming based training procedure that promotes robustness. We design two versions of this training procedure. The first one includes a regularizer that penalizes an accurate upper bound on the Lipschitz constant. The second one allows to enforce a desired Lipschitz bound on the NN at all times during training. Finally, we provide two examples to show that the proposed framework successfully increases the robustness of NNs.

Patricia Pauli

Papers

Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Robust and optimal predictive control of the COVID-19 outbreak

Training Robust Neural Networks Using Lipschitz Bounds

Training robust neural networks using Lipschitz bounds

Training Robust Neural Networks Using Lipschitz Bounds