Showing papers by "Patrick T. Hester published in 2012"

Errors in systems approaches

Abstract: Understanding and treating problems in complex systems, independent of the systems construct (i.e., socio-technical systems or socio-ecological systems), dictates the use of a formal systems approach. The systems approach may be methodological, a method, or a technique, but in each case it involves the imposition of order that ranges from the philosophical to the procedural. Independent of the philosophical construct or procedural rigor used in addressing the complex systems problem is the opportunity to commit a number of errors as part of the systems approach. This paper will discuss six classifications for problem solving errors that may be experienced during the application of a systems approach when understanding and treating complex systems problems.

Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment and Evidential Credibility

Abstract: When dealing with complex systems, all decision making occurs under some level of uncertainty. This is due to the physical attributes of the system being analyzed, the environment in which the system operates, and the individuals which operate the system. Techniques for decision making that rely on traditional probability theory have been extensively pursued to incorporate these inherent aleatory uncertainties. However, complex problems also typically include epistemic uncertainties that result from lack of knowledge. These problems are fundamentally different and cannot be addressed in the same fashion. In these instances, decision makers typically use subject matter expert judgment to assist in the analysis of uncertainty. The difficulty with expert analysis, however, is in assessing the accuracy of the expert's input. The credibility of different information can vary widely depending on the expert’s familiarity with the subject matter and their intentional (i.e., a preference for one alternative over another) and unintentional biases (heuristics, anchoring, etc.). This paper proposes the metric of evidential credibility to deal with this issue. The proposed approach is ultimately demonstrated on an example problem concerned with the estimation of aircraft maintenance times for the Turkish Air Force.

Stakeholders in systems problems

Abstract: Stakeholders exist at the centre of all systems problems and are the principal contributors to the solution of these problems. We provide an approach for classifying stakeholders and determining an appropriate level of action to take with respect to these stakeholders that combines the power, legitimacy and urgency typology with a stakeholder attitude classification schema. The newly developed stakeholder strategy is a matrix that combines stakeholder attitude and classification. This matrix serves as a guide for the application of resources in support of stakeholder involvement. This technique provides systems practitioners with a means to deal with stakeholders effectively.

Why optimisation of a system of systems is both unattainable and unnecessary

Abstract: The operational and managerial independence, geographic distribution, emergent behaviour, and evolutionary development that characterise a system of systems (SoS) also ensure that it is impossible to truly optimise it. However, using the concept of satisficing, we can declare that a 'good enough' solution is in fact, sufficient. Why are we all right with this potentially unsettling notion in the context of a system of systems? In part, due to the principle of finite causality introduced in this paper, stating no system outcome can have infinitely bad (or good) implications; thus, the outcome of any action or series of actions is finite in nature. This realisation further bolsters the acceptability of an inherently sub-optimal SoS. This paper explores the notions of why optimisation of a SoS is both: 1) unattainable based on its inherent characteristics and associated systems principles; and 2) unnecessary in practice.

Multi-Criteria Performance Measurement for Public and Private Sector Enterprises

Abstract: Historically, public and private sector enterprises have been viewed as existing on opposing ends of the performance measurement spectrum, due to seemingly incompatible worldviews. Private sector enterprises are traditionally viewed as profit-driven and focused on a return on investment paradigm, while public sector enterprises are seen as mission-oriented and answerable to a paradigm less focused on investment and more on improving enterprise capability. The authors propose that, in fact, these worldviews are not mutually exclusive, as private and public sector enterprises must both account for investment and mission concerns. In order to leverage real synergy to be gained from distinct but complementary viewpoints, a systemic approach to evaluating organization performance through the novel fusion of operational test and evaluation and multi-criteria decision analysis is developed. Use of this framework is demonstrated within an enterprise that involves consideration of public and private sector concerns. The authors hope that the approach proposed in this chapter will enable public and private sector enterprises to comprehensively address performance.

Measuring system of systems performance

Abstract: Single systems and systems of systems, alike, demand management approaches focused on performance; but system of systems management can only responsibly address performance if it accounts for characteristics such as the presence of distinct subsystems pursuing possibly disparate purposes, a characteristic by definition of no concern to single system management. By extension then, with to manage in many ways to measure, systems of systems demand performance measurement schemes that accommodate the traits that set them apart from individual systems. Enterprise AID represents a means for measuring and hence managing the current or future performance of systems of systems. Enterprise AID – or simply AID, for assessment, improvement, and design – is a methodology for the design and use of performance measurement systems able to uniformly address problems encountered with extant or envisioned, single system or system of systems type enterprises. This paper describes advantages held by the AID methodology for system of systems performance measurement, and it does so within a context set by appropriate definitions, selected methodology elements, and an application example focused on the selected elements. This paper concludes with a recognition of performance related issues attendant to system of systems improvement or design.

Integrated condition assessment for Navy system of systems

Abstract: Although the US Navy has made great strides in integrating technology to monitor and assess the condition of sub-systems, little is understood about how to fuse this data in order to construct a higher level awareness of the ship's overall readiness or current state. Drawing upon systems theory and systems-based approaches, we identify principles of hierarchy, control, suboptimisation, and satisficing as critical propositions for fusing integrated condition data and propose the viable system model as a hierarchical construct for managing the complexity of fusing integrated data into higher level awareness. This research resulted in the development of a system-level decision process that represents the underlying process of maintaining awareness of system level condition. We feel that further study is needed to fully realise the potential of using the a system-level decision process in integrating data for condition-based assessment and suggest avenues of research in calculating system reliability in managing both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty resident in the system.

Exploring the Use of Computer Simulations in Unraveling Research and Development Governance Problems

Abstract: Understanding Research and Development (R&D) enterprise relationships and processes at a governance level is not a simple task, but valuable decision-making insight and evaluation capabilities can be gained from their exploration through computer simulations. This paper discusses current Modeling and Simulation (M&S) methods, addressing their applicability to R&D enterprise governance. Specifically, the authors analyze advantages and disadvantages of the four methodologies used most often by M&S practitioners: System Dynamics (SO), Discrete Event Simulation (DES), Agent Based Modeling (ABM), and formal Analytic Methods (AM) for modeling systems at the governance level. Moreover, the paper describes nesting models using a multi-method approach. Guidance is provided to those seeking to employ modeling techniques in an R&D enterprise for the purposes of understanding enterprise governance. Further, an example is modeled and explored for potential insight. The paper concludes with recommendations regarding opportunities for concentration of future work in modeling and simulating R&D governance relationships and processes.