A review is presented of the book “Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment,” edited by Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, and Daniel Kahneman.

Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment

Much research in the last two decades has demon- strated that human responses deviate from the performance deemed normative according to various models of decision mak- ing and rational judgment (e.g., the basic axioms of utility theory). This gap between the normative and the descriptive can be inter- preted as indicating systematic irrationalities in human cognition. However, four alternative interpretations preserve the assumption that human behavior and cognition is largely rational. These posit that the gap is due to (1) performance errors, (2) computational limitations, (3) the wrong norm being applied by the experi- menter, and (4) a different construal of the task by the subject. In the debates about the viability of these alternative explanations, attention has been focused too narrowly on the modal response. In a series of experiments involving most of the classic tasks in the heuristics and biases literature, we have examined the implica- tions of individual differences in performance for each of the four explanations of the normative/descriptive gap. Performance er- rors are a minor factor in the gap; computational limitations un- derlie non-normative responding on several tasks, particularly those that involve some type of cognitive decontextualization. Un- expected patterns of covariance can suggest when the wrong norm is being applied to a task or when an alternative construal of the task should be considered appropriate.

https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S0140525X00003435

Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?

The program of research now known as the heuristics and biases approach began with a survey of 84 participants at the 1969 meetings of the Mathematical Psychology Society and the American Psychological Association (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). The respondents, including several authors of statistics texts, were asked realistic questions about the robustness of statistical estimates and the replicability of research results. The article commented tongue-in-heek on the prevalence of a belief that the law of large numbers applies to small numbers as well: Respondents placed too much confidence in the results of small samples, and their statistical judgments showed little sensitivity to sample size. The mathematical psychologists who participated in the survey not only should have known better – they did know better. Although their intuitive guesses were off the mark, most of them could have computed the correct answers on the back of an envelope. These sophisticated individuals apparently had access to two distinct approaches for answering statistical questions: one that is spontaneous, intuitive, effortless, and fast; and another that is deliberate, rule-governed, effortful, and slow. The persistence of large biases in the guesses of experts raised doubts about the educability of statistical intuitions. Moreover, it was known that the same biases affect choices in the real world, where researchers commonly select sample sizes that are too small to provide a fair test of their hypotheses (Cohen, 1969, 1992).

Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment.

The affect heuristic

Heuristics and Biases: Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate?

Objective. —Little is known about the influence of advertising on very young children. We, therefore, measured product logo recognition by subjects aged 3 to 6 years. Design. —Children were instructed to match logos with one of 12 products pictured on a game board. Twenty-two logos were tested, including those representing children's products, adult products, and those for two popular cigarette brands (Camel and Marlboro). Setting. —Preschools in Augusta and Atlanta, Ga. Participants. —A convenience sample of 229 children attending preschool. Results. —The children demonstrated high rates of logo recognition. When analyzed by product category, the level of recognition of cigarette logos was intermediate between children's and adult products. The recognition rates of The Disney Channel logo and Old Joe (the cartoon character promoting Camel cigarettes) were highest in their respective product categories. Recognition rates increased with age. Approximately 30% of 3-year-old children correctly matched Old Joe with a picture of a cigarette compared with 91.3% of 6-year-old children. Conclusion. —Very young children see, understand, and remember advertising. Given the serious health consequences of smoking, the exposure of children to environmental tobacco advertising may represent an important health risk and should be studied further. (JAMA. 1991;266:3145-3148)

Brand logo recognition by children aged 3 to 6 years. Mickey Mouse and Old Joe the Camel.

Much of the controversy surrounding the advertising of tobacco and alcohol products concerns the impact on young people. Eye tracking was used to determine how a large sample of adolescents attend to print ads for cigarettes, beer, and other products. In particular, the time spent viewing the ads, the percentages attending to mandated and voluntary warning messages, and the time spent viewing those messages were analyzed. The two cigarette ads had similar mandated warnings but produced very different results, thus demonstrating the importance of conducting warnings research in the context in which the warnings will be used. Finally, preliminary results based on eye tracking indicate that in the beer ad, the voluntary message encouraging responsible drinking had limited warning value.

Adolescents' Attention to Beer and Cigarette Print Ads and Associated Product Warnings

The warning on tobacco advertisements was required by the federal government, presumably as a health message to educate the public about the risks associated with tobacco use. Despite its potential public health role, there have been few published studies on the effectiveness of these warnings as a health message. The present study used well-accepted market research methods to examine adolescent viewing of tobacco advertisements. Sixty-one adolescents participated in the study. Eye tracking was used to study how participants viewed five different tobacco advertisements. The average viewing time of the warning amounted to only 8% of the total advertisement viewing time. In 43.6% of cases, the warning was not viewed at all. Following the advertisement viewing, participants were asked to identify the observed warnings within a list that included other simulated warnings. Subjects did only slightly better than random guessing in this test of recognition. Using market research criteria, the federally mandated warning must be viewed as an ineffective public health message in so far as adolescents are concerned. ( JAMA 1989;261:84-89)

https://jamanetwork.com/HttpHandlers/ArticlePdfHandler.ashx?journal=jama&articleId=375833&pdfFileName=jama_261_1_040.pdf

Recall and Eye Tracking Study of Adolescents Viewing Tobacco Advertisements

Relationship between high school student smoking and recognition of cigarette advertisements.

The major American tobacco companies developed and agreed to abide by the Cigarette Advertising Code in 1964. The stated aims of the code were to prohibit advertising directed at young people, to prohibit advertising that used fraudulent health claims, and to assure compliance with the code's provisions through the establishment of an administrative arm and enforcement mechanism to prescreen and monitor all cigarette advertising. In the 32 years since the Cigarette Advertising Code's adoption, the tobacco industry has used the existence of this code and its revisions and promises of self-regulation in accordance with this code as evidence that it promotes tobacco use only in a responsible manner. The code has served as the basis of the industry's efforts to avoid further local, state, and federal regulatory oversight of its marketing activities. A historical review of cigarette advertising since 1964 indicates that the voluntary code's major provisions have been regularly violated in the spirit and the letter. The administrative and enforcement provisions of the original Cigarette Advertising Code were quietly dismantled soon after the voluntary code's adoption and were completely omitted from the revised code in 1990. The historical evidence indicates that self-regulation of cigarette advertising and promotion by the tobacco industry has been repeatedly given trials and has not worked.

/pdf/the-tobacco-industry-s-code-of-advertising-in-the-united-5ev02dvqp0.pdf

Paul M. Fischer

Papers

Brand logo recognition by children aged 3 to 6 years. Mickey Mouse and Old Joe the Camel.

Adolescents' Attention to Beer and Cigarette Print Ads and Associated Product Warnings

Recall and Eye Tracking Study of Adolescents Viewing Tobacco Advertisements

Relationship between high school student smoking and recognition of cigarette advertisements.

The tobacco industry's code of advertising in the United States: myth and reality.