A voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the temporal dependencies in financial market volatility using ARCH and stochastic volatility models. While most of these studies have documented highly significant in-sample parameter estimates and pronounced intertemporal volatility persistence, traditional ex-post forecast evaluation criteria suggest that the models provide seemingly poor volatility forecasts. Contrary to this contention, we show that volatility models produce strikingly accurate interdaily forecasts for the latent volatility factor that would be of interest in most financial applications. New methods for improved ex-post interdaily volatility measurements based on high-frequency intradaily data are also discussed.

https://faculty.washington.edu/ezivot/econ589//////AndersenBollerslevIER1998.pdf

Answering the skeptics: yes, standard volatility models do provide accurate forecasts*

This bestselling and thoroughly classroom-tested textbook is a complete resource for finance students. A comprehensive and illustrated discussion of the most common empirical approaches in finance prepares students for using econometrics in practice, while detailed case studies help them understand how the techniques are used in relevant financial contexts. Worked examples from the latest version of the popular statistical software EViews guide students to implement their own models and interpret results. Learning outcomes, key concepts and end-of-chapter review questions (with full solutions online) highlight the main chapter takeaways and allow students to self-assess their understanding. Building on the successful data- and problem-driven approach of previous editions, this third edition has been updated with new data, extensive examples and additional introductory material on mathematics, making the book more accessible to students encountering econometrics for the first time. A companion website, with numerous student and instructor resources, completes the learning package.

Introductory Econometrics for Finance

The authors develop a conceptual framework of the marketing–finance interface and discuss its implications for the theory and practice of marketing. The framework proposes that marketing is concern...

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Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: A Framework for Analysis

Financial market volatility is an important input for investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. The emphasis of this review article is on forecasting instead of modelling; it compares the volatility forecasting findings in 93 papers published and written in the last two decades. Provided in this paper as well are volatility definitions, insights into problematic issues of forecast evaluation, data frequency, extreme values and the measurement of "actual" volatility. We compare volatility forecasting performance of two main approaches; historical volatility models and volatility implied from options. Forecasting results are compared across different asset classes and geographical regions.

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Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review

A complete resource for finance students, this textbook presents the most common empirical approaches in finance in a comprehensive and well-illustrated manner that shows how econometrics is used in practice, and includes detailed case studies to explain how the techniques are used in relevant financial contexts. Maintaining the accessible prose and clear examples of previous editions, the new edition of this best-selling textbook provides support for the main industry-standard software packages, expands the coverage of introductory mathematical and statistical techniques into two chapters for students without prior econometrics knowledge, and includes a new chapter on advanced methods. Learning outcomes, key concepts and end-of-chapter review questions (with full solutions online) highlight the main chapter takeaways and allow students to self-assess their understanding. Online resources include extensive teacher and student support materials, including EViews, Stata, R, and Python software guides.

/pdf/introductory-econometrics-for-finance-5bha97pwpi.pdf

Investors have too often extrapolated from recent experience. In the 1950s, who but the most rampant optimist would have dreamt that over the next fifty years the real return on equities would be 9% per year? Yet this is what happened in the U.S. stock market. The optimists triumphed. However, as Don Marquis observed, an optimist is someone who never had much experience. The authors of this book extend our experience across regions and across time. They present a comprehensive and consistent analysis of investment returns for equities, bonds, bills, currencies and inflation, spanning sixteen countries, from the end of the nineteenth century to the beginning of the twenty-first. This is achieved in a clear and simple way, with over 130 color diagrams that make comparison easy.Crucially, the authors analyze total returns, including reinvested income. They show that some historical indexes overstate long-term performance because they are contaminated by survivorship bias and that long-term stock returns are in most countries seriously overestimated, due to a focus on periods that with hindsight are known to have been successful.The book also provides the first comprehensive evidence on the long-term equity risk premium--the reward for bearing the risk of common stocks. The authors reveal whether the United States and United Kingdom have had unusually high stock market returns compared to other countries. The book covers the U.S., the U.K., Japan, France, Germany, Canada, Italy, Spain, Switzerland, Australia, the Netherlands, Sweden, Belgium, Ireland, Denmark, and South Africa.Triumph of the Optimists is required reading for investment professionals, financial economists, and investors. It will be the definitive reference in the field and consulted for years to come.

Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns

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Triumph of the Optimists

Many researchers have uncovered empirical regularities in stock market returns. If these regularities persist, investors can expect to achieve superior performance. Unfortunately, nature can be perverse. Once an apparent anomaly is publicised, only too often it disappears or goes into reverse. The latter seems to have happened to the small firm premium. After the UK size premium was documented and disseminated, a historical small-cap premium of six percent was followed by a small-cap discount of around six percent. This study presents evidence of and some explanations for the disappearance of the small firm premium.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/98100814.pdf?abstractid=135681&mirid=1

Murphy's Law and Market Anomalies

Many researchers have uncovered empirical regularities in stock market returns. If these regularities persist, investors can expect to achieve superior performance. Unfortunately, nature can be perverse. Once an apparent anomaly is publicized, only too often it disappears or goes into reverse. The latter seems to have happened to the small-firm premium. The authors show that after the U.K. size premium was documented and disseminated, the historical small-cap premium of 6% was replaced by a small-cap discount of around 6%. The authors present evidence of and some explanations for the disappearance of the small-firm premium.

Paul Marsh

Papers

Triumph of the Optimists: 101 Years of Global Investment Returns

Triumph of the Optimists

Murphy's Law and Market Anomalies

Murphy's Law and Market Anomalies

Must finance and strategy clash