In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology. The link with econometrics is made even closer by the natural way in which the models can be extended to include explanatory variables and to cope with multivariate time series. From the technical point of view, state space models and the Kalman filter play a key role in the statistical treatment of structural time series models. The book includes a detailed treatment of the Kalman filter. This technique was originally developed in control engineering, but is becoming increasingly important in fields such as economics and operations research. This book is concerned primarily with modelling economic and social time series, and with addressing the special problems which the treatment of such series poses. The properties of the models and the methodological techniques used to select them are illustrated with various applications. These range from the modellling of trends and cycles in US macroeconomic time series to to an evaluation of the effects of seat belt legislation in the UK.

Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter

Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies: Do they fit out of sample?

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices and wages for the euro area. The model incorporates various other features such as habit formation, costs of adjustment in capital accumulation and variable capacity utilisation. It is estimated with Bayesian techniques using seven key macro-economic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, prices, real wages, employment and the nominal interest rate. The introduction of ten orthogonal structural shocks (including productivity, labour supply, investment, preference, cost-push and monetary policy shocks) allows for an empirical investigation of the effects of such shocks and of their contribution to business cycle fluctuations in the euro area. Using the estimated model, the paper also analyses the output (real interest rate) gap, defined as the difference between the actual and model-based potential output (real interest rate).

An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area. NBB Working Paper Nr. 35

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costs are a significant and quantitatively important determinant of inflation. Backward looking price setting, while statistically significant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we conclude that the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good first approximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w7551/w7551.pdf

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrate that phenomenon, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations assess its relevance to the coincidence of emerging market crises in 1994-95 and in 1997.

Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria

A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavior is examined using data for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. Both time-series and cross sectional estimates are obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offset on private saving of changes in public saving and (for developing countries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth are important determinants of private saving rates, and that interest rates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects. Increases in per capita gross domestic product seem to increase saving at low income levels (relative to the United States) but decrease it at higher ones.

/pdf/international-evidence-on-the-determinants-of-private-saving-2l2jj16t3t.pdf

International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving

Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe

Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker and the role of tough policies in signaling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on EMS interest rates and find support for our hypothesis.

/pdf/credibility-of-policies-versus-credibility-of-policymakers-rifslr115j.pdf

Paul R. Masson

Papers

Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria

International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving

Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe

Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers

Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria