https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101712

The COVID-19 pandemic uncertainty, investor sentiment, and global equity markets: Evidence from the time-frequency co-movements

We employ multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to provide a first look at the efficiency of forex markets during the initial period of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which has disrupted the global financial markets. We use high-frequency (5-min interval) data of six major currencies traded in forex markets during the period October 1, 2019 to 31 March 31, 2020. Before applying MF-DFA, we examine the inner dynamics of multifractality through seasonal and trend decompositions using loess. Overall, the results confirm the presence of multifractality in forex markets, which demonstrates, in particular, (i) a decline in the efficiency of forex markets during the COVID-19 outbreak and (ii) heterogeneous effects on the strength of multifractality of exchange rate returns under investigation. The largest effect is observed for the Australian dollar, which shows the highest (lowest) efficiency before (during) the COVID-19 pandemic, assessed in terms of low (high) multifractality. The Canadian dollar and the Swiss Franc exhibit the highest efficiency during the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings may help policymakers shape a comprehensive response to improve forex market efficiency during such a black swan event.

On the Efficiency of Foreign Exchange Markets in Times of the COVID-19 Pandemic

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101825

Looking for a safe haven against American stocks during COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract Does Indian sovereign yield volatility reflect economic fundamentals, or whether it is a self-generated force flowing through markets with little connection to such fundamentals? To answer the question, this research explores the volatility dynamics and measures the persistence of shocks to the sovereign bond yield volatility in India from 1 January 2016, to 18 May 2022, using a family of GARCH models. The empirical results indicate the high volatility persistence across the maturity spectrum in the sample period. However, upon decomposing the markets into bull and bear phases, our results support the existence of weak volatility persistence and rapid mean reversion in the bear market. This shows that the economic response policies implemented by the government during the pandemic, including fiscal measures, have a restraining effect on sovereign yield volatility. For a positive γ, the results suggest the possibility of a “leverage effect” that is markedly different from that frequently seen in stock markets. Results further indicate that the fluctuations in Indian sovereign yields cannot be dissociated from inflation and money market volatility. Our findings herein provide valuable information and implications for policymakers and financial investors worldwide.

https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2023.2189589

Modelling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India

The paper aims to examine the ability of a global fear index (GFI) based on the COVID-19 pandemic and government policy responses as a measure of uncertainty in predicting eight Indian rupee-based exchange rate return series: the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc, the US dollar, the euro, the British pound sterling, the New Zealand dollar, and the Japanese yen. The predictability of the daily Indian rupee-based exchange rate return series is tested using the recently developed wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test of Kim and Shamsuddin for the period 2 October 2020 to 8 March 2021. Both symmetric and asymmetric tests revealed GFI as an insignificant determinant of the Indian rupee-based exchange rate return series. However, government policy responses are a significant determinant of the rupee-dollar exchange rate return series.

Pandemic‐induced fear and government policy response as a measure of uncertainty in the foreign exchange market: Evidence from (a)symmetric wild bootstrap likelihood ratio test

There is limited literature exploring the relationship between the sentiment of fear and bond markets. This study analyzes the influence of fear generated by the coronavirus on bond markets, partic...

Paule-Vianez, Jessica, Orden-Cruz, Carmen, Escamilla-Solano, Sandra

Papers

Influence of COVID-induced fear on sovereign bond yield