This Science Plan and Implementation Strategy sets out the research agenda for the second phase of IGBP The document describes the IGBP strategy for producing high quality, unbiased, credible, fundamental scientific research in the area of global change: a strategy centered on ten projects, to be carried out by the several thousand scientists worldwide who are part of the IGBP network Further, the document describes how the organization will communicate the results of this research to different audiences, in order to realize its vision: "to provide scientific knowledge to improve the sustainability of the living Earth"

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Science Plan and Implementation Strategy

The Scotia Sea ecosystem is a major component of the circumpolar Southern Ocean system, where productivity and predator demand for prey are high. The eastward-flowing Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and waters from the Weddell–Scotia Confluence dominate the physics of the Scotia Sea, leading to a strong advective flow, intense eddy activity and mixing. There is also strong seasonality, manifest by the changing irradiance and sea ice cover, which leads to shorter summers in the south. Summer phytoplankton blooms, which at times can cover an area of more than 0.5 million km2, probably result from the mixing of micronutrients into surface waters through the flow of the ACC over the Scotia Arc. This production is consumed by a range of species including Antarctic krill, which are the major prey item of large seabird and marine mammal populations. The flow of the ACC is steered north by the Scotia Arc, pushing polar water to lower latitudes, carrying with it krill during spring and summer, which subsidize food webs around South Georgia and the northern Scotia Arc. There is also marked interannual variability in winter sea ice distribution and sea surface temperatures that is linked to southern hemisphere-scale climate processes such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation. This variation affects regional primary and secondary production and influences biogeochemical cycles. It also affects krill population dynamics and dispersal, which in turn impacts higher trophic level predator foraging, breeding performance and population dynamics. The ecosystem has also been highly perturbed as a result of harvesting over the last two centuries and significant ecological changes have also occurred in response to rapid regional warming during the second half of the twentieth century. This combination of historical perturbation and rapid regional change highlights that the Scotia Sea ecosystem is likely to show significant change over the next two to three decades, which may result in major ecological shifts.

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Spatial and temporal operation of the Scotia Sea ecosystem: a review of large-scale links in a krill centred food web.

The Southern Ocean is known to have warmed considerably during the second half of the 20th century but there are few locations with data before the 1950s In addition, assessments of change in this region are hampered by the strong seasonal bias in sampling, with the vast majority of data collected during the austral summer However, oceanographic measurements near South Georgia span most of the last century, and we here consider almost year-round data from this location over an 81-year period (1925–2006) We observe significant warming between the early and late 20th century, with differential warming between summer and winter months and an indication that late 20th century summer temperatures peaked � 6 days earlier To quantify the longterm warming trend in this highly variable data, a mixed model utilising a Residual Maximum Likelihood (REML) method was used Over the 81-year period, a mean increase of � 091C in January and � 231C in August was evident in the top 100 m of the water column Warming diminished below 100 m and approached 0 at 200 m Thus the longterm warming around South Georgia is substantial—more so than documented previously for the circumpolar warming of the Southern Ocean We examine potential causal effects of this trend, including local atmospheric and cryospheric change, the influence of upstream waters and the role of coupled modes of climate variability such as

https://www.iced.ac.uk/documents/Whitehouse%20et%20al%20Deep%20Sea%20Research%20I,%202008.pdf

Rapid warming of the ocean around South Georgia, Southern Ocean, during the 20th century: Forcings, characteristics and implications for lower trophic levels

and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1 o C over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rspb.2007.1180

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems.

In January and February 2000, a collaborative survey designed to assess the biomass of Antarctic krill across the Scotia Sea was conducted aboard research vessels from Japan, Russia, the UK and the USA using active acoustic and net sampling. Survey design, sampling protocols, and data analysis procedures are described. Mean krill density across the survey area was estimated to be 21.4 g m −2 , and total biomass was estimated to be 44.3 million tonnes (CV 11.4%). This biomass estimate leads to a revised estimate of precautionary yield for krill in the Scotia Sea of 4 million tonnes. However, before the fishery can be permitted to expand to this level, it will be necessary to establish mechanisms to avoid concentration of fishing effort, particularly near colonies of land-breeding krill predators, and to consider the effects of krill immigrating into the region from multiple sources.

https://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~perg/Hewitt_et_al_Deep_Sea_Res_II_51_2004.pdf

Biomass of Antarctic krill in the Scotia Sea in January/February 2000 and its use in revising an estimate of precautionary yield

Variability in hydrographic conditions to the east and northwest of South Georgia, 1996–2001

In January and February 2000, four ships conducted an extensive hydrographic survey of the Scotia Sea as part of the CCAMLR 2000 Survey. There were 169 CTD stations to at least 1000 m depth, making this the largest synoptic dataset since 1981. A hydrographic section at Drake Passage was used to define water masses and ocean fronts. In 2000, the Subantarctic Front and the Polar Front were unusually close, and the entire survey occurred to the south of the Polar Front. The survey area was bisected by the Subantarctic Circumpolar Current Front and the Southern Boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. In Drake Passage, these fronts were widely spaced. A further two hydrographic sections to the east of Drake Passage show that the relative location of these fronts changes east of Drake Passage. Horizontal maps across the survey area show that close to Drake Passage, properties are aligned in a southwest to northeast direction. At approximately 35°W, properties become orientated in a north–south direction. A map of geopotential anomaly shows the flow field across the survey area and allows identification of oceanic fronts. In months previous to the survey, the giant icebergs A22B and B10A crossed the Scotia Sea and closely followed the geopotential field from the CCAMLR 2000 dataset. The SACCF is not the only important front for transporting biological matter from the Antarctic Peninsula to South Georgia; an interaction between the SBACC and the SACCF is also likely to be important.

/pdf/physical-oceanography-in-the-scotia-sea-during-the-ccamlr-5ym8bm1gx6.pdf

Physical oceanography in the Scotia Sea during the CCAMLR 2000 survey, austral summer 2000

In accordance with the "Strategy for the Development of the Fisheries complex of the Russian Federation until 2030", it is planned to significantly increase the Russian catch outside its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ). The most promising for this are the commercial resources of krill in the Atlantic part of Antarctica and horse mackerel in the South Pacific Ocean [1; 9]. 
These areas were discovered and studied by Russian scientists and fishermen. For more than 15 years (until 1993) of the former USSR/In the Russian Federation, large-scale fishing was conducted there year-round. In parallel, complex commercial and oceanological studies were carried out, according to the results of which databases and knowledge bases on the scale and mechanisms of the influence of oceanological conditions on interannual changes in the biomass and distribution of krill and mackerel were created in the Atlantic Branch of VNIRO (AtlantNIRO). 
At present, modern oceanological measurements are widely used in commercial oceanological research: scanning of the ocean surface in various frequency ranges from artificial Earth satellites and the results of vertical sounding of the ocean to depths of about 2000 m by drifting buoys of the international Argo project. 
The purpose of the article is to present the results of the use of modern oceanological information in commercial oceanological research, to develop on this basis new approaches to the management of krill and mackerel stocks.

Modern oceanological information in studies of krill habitat in the Atlantic part of Antarctica and horse mackerel in the South Pacific Ocean in order to increase the Russian catch of these objects

Pavel P. Chernyshkov

Papers

Variability in hydrographic conditions to the east and northwest of South Georgia, 1996–2001

Physical oceanography in the Scotia Sea during the CCAMLR 2000 survey, austral summer 2000

Modern oceanological information in studies of krill habitat in the Atlantic part of Antarctica and horse mackerel in the South Pacific Ocean in order to increase the Russian catch of these objects