Purpose – The paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses. Design/methodology/approach – The study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes. Findings – The paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each. Practical implications – Futurists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques. Originality/value – Scenario development is the stock-in-trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

https://training.fws.gov/courses/alc/alc3194/resources/publications/scenario-planning/Bishop_et_al_2007.pdf

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

The need for environmental foresight has increased in recent decades as the pace of change has accelerated and the frequency of surprise has increased. Successfully dealing with the growing impacts of change on social-ecological systems depends on our ability to anticipate change. But traditional scientific tools are blunt instruments for studying a future that does not exist. We propose that futures research, a transdisciplinary field of inquiry that has been developing for more than 50 years, offers an underused but fruitful set of approaches to address this important challenge. A few futures research methods—notably several forms of scenario analysis—have been applied to environmental issues and problems in recent years. But futurists have developed an array of other useful methods for exploring possible, plausible, and preferable futures, important insights into the nature of change, and perspectives for thinking creatively and deeply about the future. We present an overview of futures research and its potential to enrich environmental planning and policy by offering a cross-fertilization of new ideas and approaches, providing a more complete view of emerging environmental problems, and facilitating the development of strategies to increase adaptive capacity and deal more effectively with surprises.

/pdf/strengthening-environmental-foresight-potential-26gf8gdfkb.pdf

Strengthening Environmental Foresight: Potential Contributions of Futures Research

This article introduces the Foresight Competency Model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. It describes how other fields have used competency models to define what their professionals do, documents how the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) developed this model, explains the interrelated features of the model, and suggests ways that organizations can use the model to enhance the foresight capacity of their talent.

/pdf/building-foresight-capacity-toward-a-foresight-competency-54cw5siqgk.pdf

Building foresight capacity: toward a foresight competency model

Purpose – The paper aims to introduce the first iteration of an international research project into the “state of play” in the futures field (SoPiFF) using methodology developed at the Australian Foresight Institute (AFI).Design/methodology/approach – The paper outlines the overall approach and the methods it employed, along with some implications and emerging themes from this first iteration.Findings – The paper casts new light on patterns of activity in the futures/foresight arena that, in turn, lead to policy questions, including those of purpose and effectiveness.Originality/value – The SoPiFF project is of interest not only for its early results, but also for the use of the metascanning methodology outlined here. At one level it draws attention to the nature of the foresight practitioner's toolkit. At another it may also help to guide decisions about future resourcing options and the nature of training that is offered within the domain.

Phil Hadridge

Papers

Thinking about the Future: Guidelines for Strategic Foresight