Dengue is a systemic viral infection transmitted between humans by Aedes mosquitoes. For some patients, dengue is a life-threatening illness. There are currently no licensed vaccines or specific therapeutics, and substantial vector control efforts have not stopped its rapid emergence and global spread. The contemporary worldwide distribution of the risk of dengue virus infection and its public health burden are poorly known. Here we undertake an exhaustive assembly of known records of dengue occurrence worldwide, and use a formal modelling framework to map the global distribution of dengue risk. We then pair the resulting risk map with detailed longitudinal information from dengue cohort studies and population surfaces to infer the public health burden of dengue in 2010. We predict dengue to be ubiquitous throughout the tropics, with local spatial variations in risk influenced strongly by rainfall, temperature and the degree of urbanization. Using cartographic approaches, we estimate there to be 390 million (95% credible interval 284-528) dengue infections per year, of which 96 million (67-136) manifest apparently (any level of disease severity). This infection total is more than three times the dengue burden estimate of the World Health Organization. Stratification of our estimates by country allows comparison with national dengue reporting, after taking into account the probability of an apparent infection being formally reported. The most notable differences are discussed. These new risk maps and infection estimates provide novel insights into the global, regional and national public health burden imposed by dengue. We anticipate that they will provide a starting point for a wider discussion about the global impact of this disease and will help to guide improvements in disease control strategies using vaccine, drug and vector control methods, and in their economic evaluation.

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The global distribution and burden of dengue

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(09)61422-7.pdf

Socioeconomic aspects of neglected tropical diseases.

Dengue viruses (DENV) are by far the most important arboviral pathogens in the tropics around the world, putting at risk of infection nearly a third of the global human population. DENV are members of the genus Flavivirus in the Family Flaviviridae and comprise four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV-1-4). Although they share almost identical epidemiological features, they are genetically distinct. Phylogenetic analyses have revealed valuable insights into the origins, epidemiology and the forces that shape DENV evolution in nature. In this review, we examine the current status of DENV evolution, including but not limited to rates of evolution, selection pressures, population sizes and evolutionary constraints, and we discuss how these factors influence transmission, pathogenesis and emergence.

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Dengue-Quo tu et quo vadis?

OBJECTIVE: To study dengue vector breeding patterns under a variety of conditions in public and private spaces; to explore the ecological, biological and social (eco-bio-social) factors involved in vector breeding and viral transmission, and to define the main implications for vector control. METHODS: In each of six Asian cities or periurban areas, a team randomly selected urban clusters for conducting standardized household surveys, neighbourhood background surveys and entomological surveys. They collected information on vector breeding sites, people's knowledge, attitudes and practices surrounding dengue, and the characteristics of the study areas. All premises were inspected; larval indices were used to quantify vector breeding sites, and pupal counts were used to identify productive water container types and as a proxy measure for adult vector abundance. FINDINGS: The most productive vector breeding sites were outdoor water containers, particularly if uncovered, beneath shrubbery and unused for at least one week. Peridomestic and intradomestic areas were much more important for pupal production than commercial and public spaces other than schools and religious facilities. A complex but non-significant association was found between water supply and pupal counts, and lack of waste disposal services was associated with higher vector abundance in only one site. Greater knowledge about dengue and its transmission was associated with lower mosquito breeding and production. Vector control measures (mainly larviciding in one site) substantially reduced larval and pupal counts and "pushed" mosquito breeding to alternative containers. CONCLUSION: Vector breeding and the production of adult Aedes aegypti are influenced by a complex interplay of factors. Thus, to achieve effective vector management, a public health response beyond routine larviciding or focal spraying is essential.

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Eco-bio-social determinants of dengue vector breeding: a multicountry study in urban and periurban Asia.

Dengue vaccines are currently in development and policymakers need appropriate economic studies to determine their potential financial and public health impact. We searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILAC, EconLit, and WHOLIS) to identify health economics studies of dengue. Forty-three manuscripts were identified that provided primary data: 32 report economic burden of dengue and nine are comparative economic analyses assessing various interventions. The remaining two were a willingness-to-pay study and a policymaker survey. An expert panel reviewed the existing dengue economic literature and recommended future research to fill information gaps. Although dengue is an important vector-borne disease, the economic literature is relatively sparse and results have often been conflicting because of use of inconsistent assumptions. Health economic research specific to dengue is urgently needed to ensure informed decision making on the various options for controlling and preventing this disease.

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Health Economics of Dengue: A Systematic Literature Review and Expert Panel's Assessment

Dengue infections are a significant cause of morbidity and mortality and lead to adverse economic effects in many developing tropical countries. In this study, we estimated the economic burden faced by India during the 2006 dengue epidemic. Costs incurred in managing a cohort of serologically confirmed dengue patients at a tertiary-level private hospital in north India were calculated. The median cost of treatment per hospitalised dengue patient was US$432.2 (95% CI US$343.6-625). A sensitivity analysis was performed to estimate the costs to the health system in India using a regression model. Variables with potentially large variations, including the ratio of unreported to reported cases and of hospitalised to ambulatory cases, the proportion requiring transfusions, loss of economic activities due to loss of workdays and deaths, were used. The average total economic burden was estimated to be US$27.4 million (95% CI US$25.7-29.1 million). Costs in the private heath sector were estimated to be almost four times public sector expenditures. Considerable economic losses (at a macro level) are incurred by developing countries like India during each dengue epidemic. Accurate estimates of the proportions of reported to unreported and of hospitalised to ambulatory dengue cases in India are needed to refine further the estimates of financial burden due to dengue in India.

Prakash Khairnar

Papers

Economic burden of dengue infections in India.