Brucellosis has re-emerged in China in recent years, resulting in an increasing health burden and economic losses for humans and the livestock industries. This study integrated data from human and livestock brucellosis surveillance systems to explore the changing epidemiology of brucellosis from 2004 to 2018 in China. A total of 524,980 human cases of brucellosis were reported, with the average annual incidence in humans being significantly higher for the period 2012–2018 than for 2004–2011 (3.3 vs. 1.9 per 100,000 residents). An autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model predicted an upward trend in the monthly incidence of brucellosis in humans in 2019 and 2020. Characteristics including being male, aged 45–54 years, working in the livestock industries, and residing in the northern provinces of China increased the risk of people contracting brucellosis. The percentage of provinces with infected people increased from 67.7% (21/31) in 2004 to all provinces in 2018. A total of 29,115 outbreaks were reported in livestock from 2004 to 2018, with 443,883 seropositive animals although only 381,224 (85.9%) of these were culled. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in humans was strongly positively correlated (r = .539, p < .001) with the number of outbreaks of brucellosis in livestock reported 3 months prior to the human cases. At the provincial level, the annual incidence of brucellosis in humans was significantly positively correlated with the sheep population (r = .786, p < .01). In conclusion, brucellosis in humans and livestock has been spreading in mainland China in the past decade. A more active surveillance of brucellosis in both livestock and humans in China should be coordinated and adjusted by adopting an evidence-based ‘One Health’ approach, particularly in high-risk regions and livestock industries.

An epidemiological study of brucellosis on mainland China during 2004-2018.

In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan’s disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan’s National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017–2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990–2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. The gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

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Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017-2040 in Japan.

Background: Lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) are one of the most commonly described urination disorders worldwide. Previous investigations have focused predominantly on the prospective identification of cases that meet the researchers’ criteria; thus, the genuine demands regarding LUTS from patients and related issues may be neglected.
Objective: We aimed to examine web-based search trends and behaviors related to LUTS on a national and regional scale by using the dominant, major search engine in mainland China.
Methods: Baidu Index was queried by using LUTS-related terms for the period of January 2011 to September 2020. The search volume for each term was recorded to analyze search trends and demographic distributions. For user interest, user demand graph data and trend data were collected and analyzed.
Results: Of the 13 LUTS domains, 11 domains are available in the Baidu Index database. The Baidu search index for each LUTS domain varied from 37.78% to 1.47%. The search trends for urinary frequency (2011-2018: annual percent change APC=7.82%; P<.001), incomplete emptying (2011-2014: APC=17.74%; P<.001), nocturia (2011-2018: APC=11.54%; P<.001), dysuria (2017-2020: APC=20.77%; P<.001), and incontinence (2011-2016: APC=13.39%; P<.001) exhibited fluctuations over time. The search index trends for weak stream (2011-2017: APC=−4.68%; P<.001; 2017-2020: APC=9.32%; P=.23), split stream (2011-2013: APC=9.50%; P=.44; 2013-2020: APC=2.05%; P=.71), urgency (2011-2018: APC=−2.63%; P=.03; 2018-2020: APC=8.58%; P=.19), and nocturnal enuresis (2011-2018: APC=−3.20%; P=.001; 2018-2020: APC=−4.21%; P=.04) remained relatively stable and consistent. The age distribution of the population for all LUTS-related inquiries showed that individuals aged 20 to 40 years made 73.86% (49,218,123/66,635,247) of the total search inquiries. Further, individuals aged 40 to 49 years made 12.29% (8,193,922/66,635,247) of the total search inquiries for all LUTS-related terms. People from the east part of China made 67.79% (45,172,031/66,635,247) of the total search queries. Additionally, most of the searches for LUTS-related terms were related to those for urinary diseases to varying degrees.
Conclusions: Web-based interest in LUTS-related terms fluctuated wildly and was reflected timely by Baidu Index in mainland China. The web-based search popularity of each LUTS-related term varied significantly and differed based on personal interests, the population’s concerns, regional variations, and gender. These data can be used by care providers to track the prevalence of LUTS and the population’s interests, guide the establishment of disease-specific health care policies, and optimize physician-patient health care sessions.

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Using Search Trends to Analyze Web-Based Interest in Lower Urinary Tract Symptoms-Related Inquiries, Diagnoses, and Treatments in Mainland China: Infodemiology Study of Baidu Index Data.

Internet search data could Be used as novel indicator for assessing COVID-19 epidemic

Background For decades, human brucellosis has been recognized worldwide as a significant cause of morbidity, yet the annual incidence of this disease remains unknown. We analyzed this frequency, using international reports (2005–2019), identifying information gaps, and distinguishing a possible path forward. Methodology/Principal findings A novel approach to estimating the incidence of this disease was explored. We utilized annual health data extracted from the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE)–World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS) database, assessing the dataset completeness and representativeness of the data for the world population. Additionally, we assessed the reported country level human brucellosis case counts and the factors that influenced the observed changes over time. Our analysis revealed incomplete and unrepresentative information, preventing the estimation of annual human brucellosis case incidence at the global level. In the OIE-WAHIS database, only 48.4% of the required reports have been submitted as of 2019, with approximately 47.3% of the world population represented. Additionally, geographic regions were disproportionate in completeness, representativeness, and actual reported case counts. Africa and Asia constituted the majority of reported cases, while simultaneously submitting the lowest percentage of reports as well as covering the lowest percentage of their populations within those reports, when compared to the rest of the world. Conclusions/Significance The global annual frequency of human brucellosis cases remains elusive. Furthermore, there exists great heterogeneity in diagnostic, surveillance, and reporting systems worldwide, calling into question the validity of available information. This study reveals that the Neglected Zoonotic Disease priority status for brucellosis should be restored.

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Human brucellosis: Widespread information deficiency hinders an understanding of global disease frequency

Reporting on brucellosis, a relatively rare infectious disease caused by Brucella, is often delayed or incomplete in traditional disease surveillance systems in China. Internet search engine data related to brucellosis can provide an economical and efficient complement to a conventional surveillance system because people tend to seek brucellosis-related health information from Baidu, the largest search engine in China. In this study, brucellosis incidence data reported by the CDC of China and Baidu index data were gathered to evaluate the relationship between them. We applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and an ARIMA model with Baidu search index data as the external variable (ARIMAX) to predict the incidence of brucellosis. The two models based on brucellosis incidence data were then compared, and the ARIMAX model performed better in all the measurements we applied. Our results illustrate that Baidu index data can enhance the traditional surveillance system to monitor and predict brucellosis epidemics in China.

Qing Zhen

Papers

Search trends and prediction of human brucellosis using Baidu index data from 2011 to 2018 in China