The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest

http://coastalforests.tfcg.org/pubs/Christopher%202009%20Risk%20to%20carbon%20offset%20projects%20in%20Tanzania.pdf

Risks to forest carbon offset projects in a changing climate

A novel approach to optimize management strategies for carbon stored in both forests and wood products

A multistage stochastic programming model for sustainable forest-level timber supply under risk of fire

Forestry's golden rule and the development of the optimal forest rotation literature

Because standard methods for computing the optimal rotation age of a forest stand must assume complete knowledge of the stand value at any future time, a forest manager must treat his estimates of future values as if they were completely accurate. Minor, unpredictable fluctuations from year to year are assumed to somehow cancel each other out. Potential catastrophes, such as forest fires or insect plagues, are customarily ignored. An alternate method for dealing with uncertainty is presented here. This method can incorporate estimates of the likelihood of catastrophes. It is shown that catastrophic moraltiy has a potentially significant effect on the optimal rotation strategy, average profits, and land valuation.

R. D. Routledge

Papers

The Effect of Potential Catastrophic Mortality and Other Unpredictable Events on Optimal Forest Rotation Policy