Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity

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Mediterranean water resources in a global change scenario

Summary Monthly precipitation data from the Global Historical Climatology Network for 42 stations in Morocco and its vicinity are investigated with respect to baroclinicity, storm track and cyclone activity, moisture transports, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variations, and different circulation types by means of correlation and composite studies. The results are related to a climate change scenario from an ECHAM4=OPYC3 transient greenhouse gas only (GHG) simulation. Precipitation in northwestern Morocco shows a clear link to the baroclinic activity over the North Atlantic during boreal winter (DJF). In large precipitation months the North Atlantic storm track is shifted southward, more westerly and northwesterly circulation situations occur and moisture transports from the Atlantic are enhanced. The occurrence of local cyclones and upper-level troughs is more frequent than in low precipitation months. The negative correlation to the NAO is relatively strong, especially with Gibraltar as a southern pole ( � 0.71). The northward shift of the storm track and eastward shift of the Azores High predicted by the ECHAM model for increasing GHG concentrations would therefore be associated with decreasing precipitation and potentially serious impacts for the future water supply for parts of Morocco. In the region south of the Atlas mountains, moisture transports from the Atlantic along the southern flank of the Atlas Mountains associated with cyclones west of Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula can be identified as a decisive factor for precipitation. Northeastern Morocco and Northwestern Algeria, however, is rather dominated by the influence of cyclones over the Western Mediterranean that are associated with a strong northwesterly moisture transport. As both regions appear to be less dependent on the North Atlantic storm track and more on local processes, a straight forward interpretation of the large-scale changes predicted by the ECHAM4=OPYC3 cannot be done without the application of down-scaling methods in the future.

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Long-term precipitation variability in Morocco and the link to the large-scale circulation in recent and future climates

Skiing heavily relies on specific weather and environmental conditions to make participation both feasible and enjoyable. The lack of published research on the relationships among ski activity, weather, and climate is, therefore, surprising, especially in light of mounting evidence regarding climate change. The analyses of the influence of daily weather variations on daily ski lift ticket sales at two Michigan ski resorts presented here appear to be the first of their kind. Results suggest that weather variables such as minimum and maximum temperature, snow depth, and wind chill do indeed have a statistically significant impact on downhill ski lift ticket sales. The regression models developed could be used by outdoor recreation and tourism providers for both short-term decision making and longer-term planning and management activities, in particular those involving consideration of climate change and potential adaptation strategies.

Impact of Weather on Downhill Ski Lift Ticket Sales

Impact of Weather on Downhill Ski Lift Ticket Sales [Summary]

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Seasonal and annual variations in climate already strongly influence agro-ecosystems, and although there is much speculation about the precise effects in such areas, any response of the communities will emerge from existing coping practices. Using examples from the High Atlas in Morocco, the paper explores the implications for livestock management, arboriculture and tourism. Although the local agro-ecosystem may prove resilient initially, the need to change tenure conditions and other rules of management may lead to conflict which exceeds the capacity of local institutions to resolve. At the same time national considerations may also draw the state more fully into conflict with mountain communities over resource use. However, the paper argues that these issues are just as likely to emerge from the evolution of the national economy as from climate change.

R. Parish

Papers

Climate change in mountain regions: some possible consequences in the Moroccan High Atlas