Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

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The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few leverage species may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

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SYNTHESES The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems

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Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services

Escalating pressures caused by the combined effects of population growth, demographic shifts, economic development and global climate change pose unprecedented threats to sandy beach ecosystems worldwide. Conservation of beaches as functional ecosystems and protection of their unique biodiversity requires management interventions that not only mitigate threats to physical properties of sandy shores, but also include ecological dimensions. Yet, beach management remains overwhelmingly focused on engineering interventions. Here we summarise the key outcomes of several workshops, held during the 2006 Sandy Beach Ecology Symposium in Vigo, Spain, that addressed issues of climate change, beach management and sampling methodology. Because efficient communication between managers and ecologists is critical, we summarise the salient features of sandy beaches as functional ecosystems in 50 ‘key statements’; these provide a succinct synopsis of the main structural and functional characteristics of these highly dynamic systems. Key outcomes of the workshops include a set of recommendations on designs and methods for sampling the benthic infaunal communities of beaches, the identification of the main ecological effects caused by direct and indirect human interventions, the predicted consequence of climate change for beach ecosystems, and priority areas for future research.

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Sandy beach ecosystems: key features, sampling issues, management challenges and climate change impacts

Coastal marine habitats at the interface of land and sea are subject to threats from human activities in both realms. Researchers have attempted to quantify how these various threats impact different coastal ecosystems, and more recently have focused on understanding the cumulative impact from multiple threats. Here, the top threats to coastal marine ecosystems and recent efforts to understand their relative importance, ecosystem-level impacts, cumulative effects, and how they can best be managed and mitigated, are briefly reviewed. Results of threat analysis and rankings will differ depending on the conservation target (e.g., vulnerable species, pristine ecosystems, mitigatable threats), scale of interest (local, regional, or global), whether externalities are considered, and the types of management tools available (e.g., marine-protected areas versus ecosystem-based management). Considering the cumulative effect of multiple threats has only just begun and depends on spatial analysis to predict overlapping threats and a better understanding of multiple-stressor effects and interactions. Emerging conservation practices that hold substantial promise for protecting coastal marine systems include multisector approaches, such as ecosystem-based management (EBM), that account for ecosystem service valuation; comprehensive spatial management, such as ocean zoning; and regulatory mechanisms that encourage or require cross-sector goal setting and evaluation. In all cases, these efforts require a combination of public and private initiatives for success. The state of our ecological understanding, public awareness, and policy initiatives make the time ripe for advancing coastal marine management and improving our stewardship of coastal and marine ecosystems.

Understanding and managing human threats to the coastal marine environment.

Global warming is expected to result in an acceleration in current rates of sea level rise, inundating many low-lying coastal and intertidal areas. This could have important implications for organisms that depend on these sites, including shorebirds that rely on them for feeding habitat during their migrations and in winter. We modeled the potential changes in the extent of intertidal foraging habitat for shorebirds at five sites in the United States that currently support internationally important numbers of migrating and wintering birds. Even assuming a conservative global warming scenario of 2°C within the next century (the most recent projections range between 1.4°C and 5.8°C), we project major intertidal habitat loss at four of the sites (Willapa Bay, Humboldt Bay, San Francisco Bay, and Delaware Bay). Projected losses range between 20% and 70% of current intertidal habitat. Such losses might jeopardize the ability of these sites to continue to support their current shorebird numbers. The mo...

Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds

https://www.fs.fed.us/psw/publications/documents/psw_gtr191/psw_gtr191_1119-1122_galbraith.pdf

R. Park

Papers

Global climate change and sea level rise: potential losses of intertidal habitat for shorebirds

Global Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: Potential Losses of Intertidal Habitat for Shorebirds