This paper analyses the aggregate relationships between traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain during the last 30 years. Our general approach is based on two basic assumptions: (1) the number of accidents depends on the use of cars and other exogenous variables, and (2) the level of economic activity affects variation in the stock of cars, as well as degree of utilization. We propose a novel turning point characterization for monthly seasonal data that allows to check whether economic and road accident cycles coincide and, to date the beginning and end of their respective cycles. Empirical results from this section are important in establishing posterior causal models and whether or not economic activity and road accidents have a common component in the long run and a varying lead-lag relationship, depending on the cycles. These models will be the basis to check when Spain will achieve the European Union figures in terms of the fatalities/accidents ratio under different scenarios. Empirical results as well as historical experiences from other European countries proved that reducing fatalities is not only a question of diminishing accidents rates.

The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in Spain: common cycles and health issues

This report highlights some fatality models developed in Malaysia in predicting road fatalities for the year 2020. Section 1.0 elaborates on the fatalities scenario in Malaysia from the 1970s to 2010. There are basically three approaches to setting road safety targets, as mentioned in Section 2.0. Aspirational target is the easiest and has been adopted in some states in the US. Another example of aspirational target is Zero Fatality, implemented in New Zealand. Model-based targets, on the other hand, require the establishment of strong relationships between fatalities and the influencing factors, which are usually hard to establish. The third approach is extrapolation and evidence-led judgment where a baseline forecast is created based on future travel patterns and the number of fatalities is extrapolated. Potential countermeasures are then added to the model, and possible fatalities reduction calculated, and target-setting was then determined. Basically, Malaysia depends on fatality models and evidence-led judgment in setting a fatalities target. Section 3.0 covers the use of the ARIMA model in forecasting road fatalities. The ARIMA model was considered after data showed the existence of auto correlation. The independent variables such as population, cumulated vehicles registered, and road length were found to be highly correlated with fatalities, as expected. However, they are also correlated with each other and hence fail the assumption of multivariate modelling. Therefore, this paper continues to use ARIMA to predict fatalities for year 2020.

Predicting Malaysian Road Fatalities for Year 2020

Forecasting traffic accidents using disaggregated data

What affects annual changes in traffic safety? A macroscopic perspective in Virginia.

The paper assesses the trend of road traffic accident casualties on Nigerian roads. In spite of efforts by law enforcement agencies to curb the carnage on Nigerian roads, traffic safety still remains a crucial issue in the country. The study used data on number of casualties from road traffic accidents in Nigeria for the period 1975 - 2009. These were obtained from records of the Nigerian Police, Federal Road Safety Commission and Na tional Bureau of Statistics. The data were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences ( SPSS) and Regression models were developed for predicting death and injuries on Nigerian roads. The study showed that the establishment of the Federal Road Safety Commission in the country has had positive impact on the ra te of casualties from road traffic accidents in the country. In order to reduce deaths and injuries from r oad traffic accidents in Nigeria, the study recommends that law enforcement, education and research funding shou ld be the focus of government in the country.

Assessing the Trends in Road Traffic Accident Casualties on Nigerian Roads

This paper presents analyses and forcasts of trends related to road traffic and pedestrian casualties and fatalities in Great Britain. For people killed and seriously injured, these forecasts are based on extrapolation of the absolute of the absolute number of casualties. For casualties classified as slight, forecasts are made of the rate of casualties per 100 million vehicle-kilometers. Forecasts, using autoregressive models, are then compared with government targets and show that at the aggregate level it is unlikely that, for the numbers that are killed or seriously injured, these targets will be achieved.

R Raeside

Papers

Predicting and monitoring casualty numbers in great britain