Showing papers by "R. S. W. van de Wal published in 1998"
TL;DR: In this article, dynamic ice-flow models for 12 glaciers and ice caps have been forced with various climate change scenarios, and the results indicate that few glaciers would survive until 2100.
Abstract: Dynamic ice-flow models for 12 glaciers and ice caps have been forced with various climate change scenarios The volume of this sample spans three orders of magnitude Six climate scenarios were considered: from 1990 onwards linear warming rates of 001, 002 and 004 K a-1, with and without concurrent changes in precipitation The models, calibrated against the historic record of glacier length where possible, were integrated until 2100 The differences in individual glacier responses are very large No straightforward relationship between glacier size and fractional change of ice volume emerges for any given climate scenario The hypsometry of individual glaciers and ice caps plays an important role in their response, thus making it difficult to generalize results For a warming rate of 004 K a-1, without increase in precipitation, results indicate that few glaciers would survive until 2100 On the other hand, if the warming rate were to be limited to 001 K a-1 with an increase in precipitation of 10% per degree warming, we predict that overall loss would be restricted to 10 to 20% of the 1990 volume
361 citations