https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc1234376/m2/1/high_res_d/Montgomery_Lancet%2520Countdown%25202017%2520Report%2520-%2520121017%2520Accepted%2520no%2520watermark.pdf

The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persist for days to months1 and can extend up to thousands of kilometres2. Some of the recently observed marine heatwaves revealed the high vulnerability of marine ecosystems3–11 and fisheries12–14 to such extreme climate events. Yet our knowledge about past occurrences15 and the future progression of MHWs is very limited. Here we use satellite observations and a suite of Earth system model simulations to show that MHWs have already become longer-lasting and more frequent, extensive and intense in the past few decades, and that this trend will accelerate under further global warming. Between 1982 and 2016, we detect a doubling in the number of MHW days, and this number is projected to further increase on average by a factor of 16 for global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius relative to preindustrial levels and by a factor of 23 for global warming of 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, current national policies for the reduction of global carbon emissions are predicted to result in global warming of about 3.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the twenty-first century16, for which models project an average increase in the probability of MHWs by a factor of 41. At this level of warming, MHWs have an average spatial extent that is 21 times bigger than in preindustrial times, last on average 112 days and reach maximum sea surface temperature anomaly intensities of 2.5 degrees Celsius. The largest changes are projected to occur in the western tropical Pacific and Arctic oceans. Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius. Our results suggest that MHWs will become very frequent and extreme under global warming, probably pushing marine organisms and ecosystems to the limits of their resilience and even beyond, which could cause irreversible changes. Satellite observations and Earth system model simulations reveal that marine heatwaves have increased in recent decades and will increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration and spatial extent.

Marine heatwaves under global warming

Watts N, Amann M, Ayeb-Karlsson S, et al. The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health. Lancet 2018; 391: 581–630—In this Review (published online first on Oct 30, 2017), Jonathan Chambers, Ian Hamilton, Robert Lowe, and Steve Pye's affiliation has been corrected to UCL Energy Institute, London, UK; Fereidoon Owfi and Mahnaz Rabbaniha's affiliation has been corrected to Iranian Fisheries Science Research Institute, AREEO, Tehran, Iran; Meisam Tabatabaei's affiliation has been corrected to Biofuel Research Team, Agricultural Biotechnology Research Institute of Iran, AREEO, Karaj, Iran; and Ali Mohammad Latifi's affiliation has been corrected to Applied Biotechnology Research Center, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. In figures 31, 33, and 34, the formatting of the currency in the y-axis title has been corrected to US$2016. In figure 36, the y-axis title has been corrected to “Fossil fuel consumption subsidies (US$2016 billion)”. In figure 37, RGGI has been explained in the figure legend and an asterisk symbol has been removed from the figure. In Table 2, CO2 has been spelled out as carbon dioxide. These corrections have been made to the online version as of Nov 23, 2017, and the printed Review is correct.

The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health (vol 391, pg 540, 2017)

1 Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA 2 School of Life and Environmental Sciences, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia 3 Conservation Biology Institute, 136 SW Washington Avenue, Suite 202, Corvallis, OR 97333, USA 4 African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, 7700, South Africa. 5 The Fletcher School and Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University, Medford, MA, USA

/pdf/world-scientists-warning-of-a-climate-emergency-4d0t4aycpu.pdf

World Scientists’ Warning of a Climate Emergency

Great progress has been made in addressing global undernutrition over the past several decades, in part because of large increases in food production from agricultural expansion and intensification. Food systems, however, face continued increases in demand and growing environmental pressures. Most prominently, human-caused climate change will influence the quality and quantity of food we produce and our ability to distribute it equitably. Our capacity to ensure food security and nutritional adequacy in the face of rapidly changing biophysical conditions will be a major determinant of the next century's global burden of disease. In this article, we review the main pathways by which climate change may affect our food production systems-agriculture, fisheries, and livestock-as well as the socioeconomic forces that may influence equitable distribution.

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044356

Climate Change and Global Food Systems: Potential Impacts on Food Security and Undernutrition.

Core Writing Team Rajendra K. Pachauri (Chair), Myles R. Allen (United Kingdom), Vicente R. Barros (Argentina), John Broome (United Kingdom), Wolfgang Cramer (Germany/France), Renate Christ (Austria/WMO), John A. Church (Australia), Leon Clarke (USA), Qin Dahe (China), Purnamita Dasgupta (India), Navroz K. Dubash (India), Ottmar Edenhofer (Germany), Ismail Elgizouli (Sudan), Christopher B. Field (USA), Piers Forster (United Kingdom), Pierre Friedlingstein (United Kingdom/Belgium), Jan Fuglestvedt (Norway), Luis Gomez-Echeverri (Colombia), Stephane Hallegatte (France/World Bank), Gabriele Hegerl (United Kingdom/Germany), Mark Howden (Australia), Kejun Jiang (China), Blanca Jimenez Cisneros (Mexico/UNESCO), Vladimir Kattsov (Russian Federation), Hoesung Lee (Republic of Korea), Katharine J. Mach (USA), Jochem Marotzke (Germany), Michael D. Mastrandrea (USA), Leo Meyer (The Netherlands), Jan Minx (Germany), Yacob Mulugetta (Ethiopia), Karen O’Brien (Norway), Michael Oppenheimer (USA), Joy J. Pereira (Malaysia), Ramón Pichs-Madruga (Cuba), Gian-Kasper Plattner (Switzerland), Hans-Otto Pörtner (Germany), Scott B. Power (Australia), Benjamin Preston (USA), N.H. Ravindranath (India), Andy Reisinger (New Zealand), Keywan Riahi (Austria), Matilde Rusticucci (Argentina), Robert Scholes (South Africa), Kristin Seyboth (USA), Youba Sokona (Mali), Robert Stavins (USA), Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Petra Tschakert (USA), Detlef van Vuuren (The Netherlands), Jean-Pascal van Ypersele (Belgium)

/pdf/climate-change-2014-synthesis-report-5abzdril7a.pdf

Rajendra K. Pachauri

Papers

Climate Change 2014 : Synthesis Report