世界経済・社会統計 = World development indicators

The paper examines the effect of real devaluation on economic growth. In the empirical model we include few other theoretically justified variables e.g., money supply, foreign remittances, and government spending as they appear relevant for Pakistan. The ADF unit root test is used for stationarity of the series. Also, to capture possible structural breaks due to currency regimes shifts, the Saikkonen and Lutkepohl unit root test is used. We apply the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration to explore a long run relation among the series; and the variance decomposition method and impulse response function for the direction of causality. The findings affirm cointegrating relation among the series. Real devaluation exerts contractionary effect on economic growth. The results should help in formulating a comprehensive trade policy including the use of competitive devaluation as a tool to correct balance of payments problems.

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Is devaluation contractionary? Empirical evidence for Pakistan

The article investigates the impacts of imports and foreign capital inflows on economic growth of Pakistan over the period 1990 to 2010. We have applied the structural break autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality multivariate framework is used to investigate the causal relationship between the series. Empirical analysis in this article confirms the long-run relationship between foreign capital inflows, imports and economic growth. The results indicate that foreign capital inflows and imports have positive and significant effect on economic growth in case of Pakistan. Causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between the variables, but strong causal relation is running from foreign capital inflows and imports to economic growth.

/pdf/do-imports-and-foreign-capital-inflows-lead-economic-growth-3lvmg82oxh.pdf

Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan

Decentralization: A Survey of Literature from a Human Development Perspective

This paper examines the causal relationship among savings, investment and economic growth in Ethiopia using annual time series data from 1969/70-2010/11 in a multivariate framework. Results from the PP unit root test shows that all variables under consideration are I(1). Result from the ARDL Bounds Testing indicates that there exists co-integration among gross domestic savings, gross domestic investment, real gross domestic product, labor force and human capital when RGDP is taken as dependent variable. Labor and investment have significant positive effect on economic growth of Ethiopia both in the short-run and long-run while GDS and human capital are statistically insignificant. Moreover, Toda-Yamamoto and Dolado-Lutkepohl as well as Innovative Accounting Techniques (i.e., IRFs and FEVD) approach to Granger causality analysis shows that there exists bidirectional causality between gross domestic investment and economic growth as well as between gross domestic savings and gross domestic investment. Granger causality running from investment to savings and from investment to growth is stronger as witnessed from impulse responses and variance decompositions. Although there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to gross domestic savings, it is weak. To attain high and sustained growth in the country, increased savings and especially investment are required due to its dual effect.

	Key words: Economic growth, Ethiopia, Granger causality, savings, investment.

/pdf/savings-investment-and-economic-growth-in-ethiopia-evidence-3owpng6lde.pdf

Savings, investment and economic growth in Ethiopia: Evidence from ARDL approach to co-integration and TYDL Granger-causality tests

The paper re-investigates the relationship between economic growth and domestic savings by applying new approaches rather than old techniques. The cointegration and causality approaches have been applied for economic growth and domestic savings. In doing so, ARDL Bounds Testing, Johanson cointegration approaches are employed to examine for long run association while Innovative Accounting Techniques and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) for causal relationship has been applied. Ng-Perron de-trended test is used for order of integration of running actors. Results reveal that there exists a long run relationship between economic growth and domestic savings and their association is robust at least in long span of time. Causal results through innovative accounting technique assert that there is one- way causality running from economic growth to domestic savings while very weak from opposite side. Results by Toda and Yamamoto's technique also confirm that economic growth leads domestic savings in Pakistan.

/pdf/old-wine-in-new-bottles-saving-growth-nexus-innovative-5ahpyciu0j.pdf

Old Wine in New Bottles: Saving - Growth Nexus: Innovative Accounting Technique in Pakistan

The main objective of this study is to empirically investigate whether economic performance in Asian economies is helpful for human development or not. For this purpose, data of 40 Asian economies has been taken from various international sources. Empirical investigation has been done by two-stage least square and validity of estimations have been verified by various diagnostic tests. The analysis has been divided into three parts, i.e. for overall Asian economies, economies with high HDI (above the median HDI) and economies with low HDI (below the median HDI). Results show that credit to private sector and urbanization are the most important and influential macroeconomic indicators for promotion of human development (overall economies, high HDI economies and low HDI economies). Capital formation contributed in human development only in overall economies. The performance of monetary and fiscal sectors proxied by supply of M2 and collection of taxes respectively are not leading to human development but results show that monetary indicator is negatively influencing human development in overall analysis of Asian countries as well as high HDI and low HDI economies. However fiscal indicator has shown insignificant effect in overall economies, positive effect in above the median economies and negative effect in below the median economies.

http://www.jespk.net/publications/194.pdf

Does Macroeconomic Performance Leads to Human Development: An Empirical Evidence from Asian Economies

The governance at the national level has commonly been measured as poor or good governance by researchers in the area of public sector reforms. They have rarely attempted the numeric estimation of the concept but used different socioeconomic indicators as proxies. Governance is a multidimensional concept that cannot be accurately elaborated by a single indicator. In the literature there exists a gap for gauging the governance in the form of an index. The current study has attempted to ameliorate different dimensions of governance by including forty two social, political, economic, demographic and environmental indicators. These indicators are firstly merged into thirteen sub-dimensions and then into five dimensions. The dimensions have been transformed in to governance index. The trend of the index shows that governance has not only progressed very slowly but it remained desperate in the study period. The contribution of this study is to provide governance index named KU index for Pakistan in annual time series for the years 1980-81 to 2010-2011. The index explained the level of governance in different eras and is ultimately connected with public sector reforms. It can be used by researchers as an explanatory factor for various political, socioeconomic and regional strategic phenomenon. Furthermore, the criterion of estimation of governance may be adopted for other economies and comparative analysis may be done.

/pdf/measuring-the-governance-in-pakistan-an-introduction-to-ku-2gdaf2l51t.pdf

Rana Ejaz

Papers

Old Wine in New Bottles: Saving - Growth Nexus: Innovative Accounting Technique in Pakistan

Does Macroeconomic Performance Leads to Human Development: An Empirical Evidence from Asian Economies

Measuring the governance in Pakistan: An introduction to KU Index

Urban Informal Sector: How much Women are Struggling for Family