For dengue viruses 1 to 4 (DENV1-4), a specific range of antibody titer has been shown to enhance viral replication in vitro and severe disease in animal models. Although suspected, such antibody-dependent enhancement of severe disease has not been shown to occur in humans. Using multiple statistical approaches to study a long-term pediatric cohort in Nicaragua, we show that risk of severe dengue disease is highest within a narrow range of preexisting anti-DENV antibody titers. By contrast, we observe protection from all symptomatic dengue disease at high antibody titers. Thus, immune correlates of severe dengue must be evaluated separately from correlates of protection against symptomatic disease. These results have implications for studies of dengue pathogenesis and for vaccine development, because enhancement, not just lack of protection, is of concern.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/358/6365/929.full.pdf

Antibody-dependent enhancement of severe dengue disease in humans

Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013-14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6-4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32-17.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91-97%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12-20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases.

/pdf/transmission-dynamics-of-zika-virus-in-island-populations-a-1q9rahxp3n.pdf

Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013-14 French Polynesia Outbreak.

The first approved dengue vaccine has now been licensed in six countries. We propose that this live attenuated vaccine acts like a silent natural infection in priming or boosting host immunity. A transmission dynamic model incorporating this hypothesis fits recent clinical trial data well and predicts that vaccine effectiveness depends strongly on the age group vaccinated and local transmission intensity. Vaccination in low-transmission settings may increase the incidence of more severe “secondary-like” infection and, thus, the numbers hospitalized for dengue. In moderate transmission settings, we predict positive impacts overall but increased risks of hospitalization with dengue disease for individuals who are vaccinated when seronegative. However, in high-transmission settings, vaccination benefits both the whole population and seronegative recipients. Our analysis can help inform policy-makers evaluating this and other candidate dengue vaccines.

/pdf/benefits-and-risks-of-the-sanofi-pasteur-dengue-vaccine-3lud84qclw.pdf

Benefits and risks of the Sanofi-Pasteur dengue vaccine: Modeling optimal deployment.

A dengue human challenge model can be an important tool to identify candidate dengue vaccines that should be further evaluated in large efficacy trials in endemic areas. Dengue is responsible for about 390 million infections annually. Protective efficacy results for the most advanced dengue vaccine candidate (CYD) were disappointing despite its ability to induce neutralizing antibodies against all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes. TV003 is a live attenuated tetravalent DENV vaccine currently in phase 2 evaluation. To better assess the protective efficacy of TV003, a randomized double-blind, placebo-controlled trial in which recipients of TV003 or placebo were challenged 6 months later with a DENV-2 strain, rDEN2Δ30, was conducted. The primary endpoint of the trial was protection against dengue infection, defined as rDEN2Δ30 viremia. Secondary endpoints were protection against rash and neutropenia. All 21 recipients of TV003 who were challenged with rDEN2Δ30 were protected from infection with rDEN2Δ30. None developed viremia, rash, or neutropenia after challenge. In contrast, 100% of the 20 placebo recipients who were challenged with rDEN2Δ30 developed viremia, 80% developed rash, and 20% developed neutropenia. TV003 induced complete protection against challenge with rDEN2Δ30 administered 6 months after vaccination. TV003 will be further evaluated in dengue-endemic areas. The controlled dengue human challenge model can accelerate vaccine development by evaluating the protection afforded by the vaccine, thereby eliminating poor candidates from further consideration before the initiation of large efficacy trials.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/scitransmed/8/330/330ra36.full.pdf

The live attenuated dengue vaccine TV003 elicits complete protection against dengue in a human challenge model

BACKGROUND: Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naive vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%-25% (all simulations: -3%-34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%-25% (all simulations: 10%- 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines. CONCLUSIONS: Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine.

https://escholarship.org/content/qt06b0g9f5/qt06b0g9f5.pdf?t=qag5my

The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study

Three-quarters of the estimated 390 million dengue virus (DENV) infections each year are clinically inapparent. People with inapparent dengue virus infections are generally considered dead-end hosts for transmission because they do not reach sufficiently high viremia levels to infect mosquitoes. Here, we show that, despite their lower average level of viremia, asymptomatic people can be infectious to mosquitoes. Moreover, at a given level of viremia, DENV-infected people with no detectable symptoms or before the onset of symptoms are significantly more infectious to mosquitoes than people with symptomatic infections. Because DENV viremic people without clinical symptoms may be exposed to more mosquitoes through their undisrupted daily routines than sick people and represent the bulk of DENV infections, our data indicate that they have the potential to contribute significantly more to virus transmission to mosquitoes than previously recognized.

https://hal-pasteur.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01239113/document

Rath Srey Lay

Papers

Asymptomatic humans transmit dengue virus to mosquitoes