Publisher Summary This chapter concerns data analysis techniques that assist the interpretation of community composition in terms of species' responses to environmental gradients in the broadest sense. All species occur in a characteristic, limited range of habitats; and within their range, they tend to be most abundant around their particular environmental optimum. The composition of biotic communities thus changes along environmental gradients. Direct gradient analysis is a regression problem—fitting curves or surfaces to the relation between each species' abundance, probability of occurrence, and one or more environmental variables. Ecologists have independently developed a variety of alternative techniques. Many of these techniques are essentially heuristic, and have a less secure theoretical basis. This chapter presents a theory of gradient analysis, in which the heuristic techniques are integrated with regression, calibration, ordination and constrained ordination as distinct, well-defined statistical problems. The various techniques used for each type of problem are classified in families according to their implicit response model and the method used to estimate parameters of the model. Three such families are considered. The treatment shown here unites such apparently disparate data analysis techniques as linear regression, principal components analysis, redundancy analysis, Gaussian ordination, weighted averaging, reciprocal averaging, detrended correspondence analysis, and canonical correspondence analysis in a single theoretical framework.

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A Theory of Gradient Analysis

In thermodynamic terms, ecosystems are machines supplied with energy from an external source, usually the sun. When the input of energy to an ecosystem is exactly equal to its total output of energy, the state of equilibrium which exists is a special case of the First Law of Thermodynamics. The Second Law is relevant too. It implies that in every spontaneous process, physical or chemical, the production of 'useful' energy, which could be harnessed in a form such as mechanical work, must be accompanied by a simultaneous 'waste' of heat. No biological system can break or evade this law. The heat produced by a respiring cell is an inescapable component of cellular metabolism, the cost which Nature has to pay for creating biological order out of physical chaos in the environment of plants and animals. Dividing the useful energy of a thermodynamic process by the total energy involved gives a figure for the efficiency of the process, and this procedure has been widely used to analyse the flow of energy in ecosystems. For example, the efficiency with which a stand of plants produces dry matter by photosynthesis can be defined as the ratio of chemical energy stored in the assimilates to radiant energy absorbed by foliage during the period of assimilation. The choice of absorbed energy as a base for calculating efficiency is convenient but arbitrary. To derive an efficiency depending on the environment of a particular site as well as oil the nature of the vegetation, dry matter production can be related to the receipt of solar energy at the top of the earth's atmosphere. This exercise was attempted by Professor William Thomson, later Lord Kelvin, in 1852. 'The author estimates the mechanical value of the solar heat which, were none of it absorbed by the atmosphere, would fall annually on each square foot of land, at 530 000 000 foot pounds; and infers that probably a good deal more, 1/1000 of the solar heat, which actually falls on growing plants, is converted into mechanical effect.' Outside the earth's atmosphere, a surface kept at right angles to the sun's rays receives energy at a mean rate of 1360 W m-2 or 1f36 kJ m-2 s-1, a figure known as the solar constant. As the energy stored by plants is about 17 kJ per gram of dry matter, the solar constant is equivalent to the production of dry matter at a rate of about 1 g m-2 every 12 s, 7 kg m-2 per day, or 2 6 t m-2 year-'. The annual yield of agricultural crops ranges from a maximum of 30-60 t ha-' in field experiments to less than I t ha-' in some forms of subsistence farming. When these rates are expressed as a fraction of the integrated solar constant, the efficiencies of agricultural systems lie between 0-2 and 0 004%, a range including Kelvin's estimate of 0-1%. Conventional estimates of efficiency in terms of the amount of solar radiation incident at the earth's surface provide ecologists and agronomists with a method for comparing plant productivity under different systems of land use and management and in different * Opening paper read at IBP/UNESCO Meeting on Productivity of Tropical Ecosystems, Makerere University, Uganda, September 1970.

http://www.britishecologicalsociety.org/100papers/100_Ecological_Papers/100_Influential_Papers_045.pdf

Solar radiation and productivity in tropical ecosystems

The North American monsoon is an important feature of the atmospheric circulation over the continent, with a research literature that dates back almost 100 years. The authors review the wide range of past and current research dealing with the meteorological and climatological aspects of the North American monsoon, highlighting historical development and major research themes. The domain of the North American monsoon is large, extending over much of the western United States from its region of greatest influence in northwestern Mexico. Regarding the debate over moisture source regions and water vapor advection into southwestern North America, there is general agreement that the bulk of monsoon moisture is advected at low levels from the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California, while the Gulf of Mexico may contribute some upper-level moisture (although mixing occurs over the Sierra Madre Occidental). Surges of low-level moisture from the Gulf of California are a significant part of intrase...

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The North American Monsoon

Saharan dust storms: nature and consequences

[1] We review evidence for climate change over the past several millennia from instrumental and high-resolution climate “proxy” data sources and climate modeling studies. We focus on changes over the past 1 to 2 millennia. We assess reconstructions and modeling studies analyzing a number of different climate fields, including atmospheric circulation diagnostics, precipitation, and drought. We devote particular attention to proxy-based reconstructions of temperature patterns in past centuries, which place recent large-scale warming in an appropriate longer-term context. Our assessment affirms the conclusion that late 20th century warmth is unprecedented at hemispheric and, likely, global scales. There is more tentative evidence that particular modes of climate variability, such as the El Nino/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, may have exhibited late 20th century behavior that is anomalous in a long-term context. Regional conclusions, particularly for the Southern Hemisphere and parts of the tropics where high-resolution proxy data are sparse, are more circumspect. The dramatic differences between regional and hemispheric/global past trends, and the distinction between changes in surface temperature and precipitation/drought fields, underscore the limited utility in the use of terms such as the “Little Ice Age” and “Medieval Warm Period” for describing past climate epochs during the last millennium. Comparison of empirical evidence with proxy-based reconstructions demonstrates that natural factors appear to explain relatively well the major surface temperature changes of the past millennium through the 19th century (including hemispheric means and some spatial patterns). Only anthropogenic forcing of climate, however, can explain the recent anomalous warming in the late 20th century.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2003RG000143

Climate over past millennia

Late- and Postglacial Climatic Change in the Northern Midwest, USA: Quantitative Estimates Derived from Fossil Pollen Spectra by Multivariate Statistical Analysis

Using the percent of climatological stations reporting rain as a measure of the raininess of a particular day in Arizona, a large increase in rainfall within a few days is found to occur about July...

Synoptic Climatology of the Arizona Summer Precipitation Singularity

On the basis of field observations and theoretical studies it is believed that the dense pall of local dust over northwestern India and West Pakistan is a significant factor in the development of s...

possibilities of major climatic modification and their implications: Northwest India, a case for study

Radiocarbon dating of charcoal on podzols along a transect reaching 280 kilometers north of the present tree line from Ennadai Lake indicates that former forests were burnt about 3500 years ago and again about 900 years ago These forests probably were associated with periods of relatively mild climate

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/147/3653/46.full.pdf

Reid A. Bryson

Papers

Late- and Postglacial Climatic Change in the Northern Midwest, USA: Quantitative Estimates Derived from Fossil Pollen Spectra by Multivariate Statistical Analysis

Synoptic Climatology of the Arizona Summer Precipitation Singularity

possibilities of major climatic modification and their implications: Northwest India, a case for study

Radiocarbon and Soil Evidence of Former Forest in the Southern Canadian Tundra.

Harmonic analysis of the annual march of precipitation over the united states1